If Crude Cannot Help, Nothing Can

Most people believed the market needed crude to trade higher, in order to get the market going. Crude is up almost 10% over the past two sessions, and the markets have been punched in the face–repeatedly. This isn’t a worldwide market issue, since european markets have easily outperformed us. This is an American problem, one that is likely transient and will resolve itself in time.

With oil catching a bid here and fuel prices super low, you’d have to be out of your fucking minds to initiate shorts now.

There is a tidal wave of buyers waiting in the shadows. Once those fuckers get flushed out of TLT, this market will take off.

How many different markets have we seen today? We got the morning bounce, the downside reversal, the upside surge, and now the anti-climatic give back. The market, for the time being, is undergoing price discovery. As a result, we are wading through a period of annoying volatility. If you’re watching every tick and trying to profit from the swings, you’re driving yourselves mad.

I am no longer interested in the intra-day ranges and will focus on weekly performance.

You’re trying to play the bounce in oil? Good. But don’t expect miracles on a daily basis.

German markets continue to outperform. The best way to play it this year is via new ETF HEWG, which hedges out the currency risk. If that ETF continues to attract new buyers, the parent company, WETF, should outperform as well.

For the moment, my #1 directional trade is to be long oil stocks. For the month of February, leading up to the driving season in March, there is tremendous opportunity in some of these beaten down names. But I can no longer watch them tick by tick.

Extend the time frames; stop adding cocaine to your morning coffee.

Why did the Seahawks decide to throw the ball at the half yard line instead of running it? It’s the same reason why bears stay short in the face of relentless central bank intervention: they were afraid to succeed.

Now that a proper team won the super bowl, after that ridiculous Seattle team snatched the title last year, the stock market may resume its 2013 ways and trend higher with uncontrollable fervor.

Some of you will disagree with my assessment, likely due to your allegiance to a NY foolsball team that happens to play in NJ, or you reside in a heathen part of the United States (any state that west of the Mississippi is considered “heathen” by most scholars, worldwide).

God bless the Patriots and let’s hope the bears get disemboweled tomorrow in a most horrendous fashion.

I swear to you I am a normal guy, running about the world in search of fortune. This market is making me fucking crazy. Not just ordinary crazy either, LUNATIC crazy without pause.

The market just melted the fuck down inside of 40 minutes. Oil sprang higher and everyone started celebrating, popping corks of champagne into each other’s faces–a grande old time, yes?

NO.

Now we get rubber bullets to the face. If the market was merciful, it would fire lead bullets and be done with us. Instead, we get impact wounds and limp on, hunchback of Notre Dame style, ashamed of what we’ve become.

I feel like a monster of sorts, craven and stark raving mad, playing a ruinous game out of choice, not necessity. I hope you appreciate my candor.

With oil up 7%, the market should be up 3%. Instead, we are banana peeling into the bell, setting up for calamitous disaster on monday.

Fuck this shit.

Everyone shut the fuck up I have an announcement to make.

I BOUGHT MOAR SHARES OF SLCA, SN AND ECR.

If you like the bloggy, you’re gonna love my Twitter account, if you’re not already following me. Thanks to The PPT, I was able to make this prescient call last night.

Visa is adding 90 points to the Dow today. Had it not been for those bozos, the Dow would be flat from yesterday’s sublime melt up. Or was it sublime? Perhaps it was insidious, a bastard event that has pitted man against man in the never ending quest to achieve cannibalistic rituals.

You want my money and I want yours. We box each others brains in and poke fun at each other when we are wrong. Some of us lie all the time, to make ourselves feel better about losing and/or market newsletters. I’ve never been a big fan of lying, since it tends to irritate the very essence of who I am. I put my trades out there to be ridiculed, shorted by vindictive billionaire hedge fund managers, torn to pieces by the winds from the east. It has been a horrendous 12 months for me and I cannot remember the last time I felt good about investing.

Sure, I have a thousands of ideas scrambling inside of my oversized brain, all to do with innovation and economic trends. But who gives a shit when the 10 yr yield is at 1.66%? I keep telling myself “things must get better”–because I am programmed to be optimistic about the economy and the market. In business, I’ve never found my natural tendency to be negative about things to be helpful. As a point in fact, I readily fight my pessimistic urges and avoid hanging around people who are depressing.

Boy is this market depressing; it makes me want to run away from it, lock the doors, and crawl under the bed screaming “go away you stupid bastard!”

On a whim, everything can change, which is why I want all of you to head on over to your local deli and stick your arms in the meat grinder (don’t do it!). That’s a permanent draw down. All of this shit here is fleeting.

Its been a brutal affair in oil and one would expect any algorithm to have gotten shredded over the past 6 months. Truth be told, The PPT has been wrong on USO, the commodity itself, as new levels breached to the downside shocked and awed all correlations known to mankind. However, believe it now, it has nailed the OIH trade with sublime precision.

Here’s a look at the actual oversold signal for OIH, over the past 12 months. As you can see, it’s a little slow to respond; but after 5 trading days, things start to get real colorful (extra Macho Man).

As of yesterday, the OIH flagged oversold and is still in a state of oversold, which means the system is expecting a reflex rally over the next 10 trading days.

I added to my ECR position.

The front page pic was taken by as friend down at the NYSE of slobs on line for free SHAK burgers.

SHAK opened at $50, which is fucking insane. The company is now valued at well over $1.8 billion.

I think I’ll keep my HABT, which is valued at around a billion less, does more revenue, and has the same growth rate.

I am unwilling to let profits ride any longer. I booked a 9% gain.

Yahoo is being valued at negative $1 billion, after its BABA and Yahoo Japan spinoffs. German 30 yr yields are under 1% and shorter duration sovereign yields are negative in most western democracies. Our 10yr yield is under 1.7% and TLT is at new highs.

Oil is cratering and the Dry Bulk Index is at its lowest point since 1986.

The entire commodity sector is in shambles and if it weren’t for US GDP numbers suggesting the economy can grow at 3%+, one would say we are trapped inside of a vicious deflationary cycle, one that stands to absolutely destroy equity prices.

Or, maybe we’re all fucking cowards and have COMPLETELY LOST OUR FUCKING MINDS, by giving governments our money for 10 years at NEGATIVE yields. This is unbelievable to me, frankly, how so many smart people can be so fucking stupid. There isn’t a credit crisis or an event that should cause you to stow away money into the coffers of Swiss central banks, locking in negative rate of returns.

Why not buy AAPL or SHAK instead?

One thing is for certain: we are in a new paradigm and the old rules do not apply. Adjust or die.