Too Little, Too Late: Congress Set to Permit Unfettered Exportation of U.S. Crude

Unless of course we extend “renewable fuel” tax credits, as part of the new $16.5 trillion scam on the world’s economies, bilking everyone for the sake of a 2 degree shift in global temperatures.

To make matters exponentionally worse, this deal, which by the way is 1 year too late, hinges on the republicans agreeing to a fucking child tax credit.

Congress is considering lifting the export ban as part of either a package to extend expiring tax provisions or to finance the government through Sept. 30 before current funding authority expires Dec. 16. Among the items being discussed are a 9 percent manufacturing tax credit for refiners and an extension of the U.S. Land Water Conservation Fund, according to at least three lobbyists close to the negotiations.

Even if such a deal is struck by Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, House Democrats, who are vital to reaching an agreement, have suggested they won’t go along unless a provision for indexing the Child Tax Credit, which allows taxpayers to reduce federal income taxes for each qualifying child, is added to the mix. And it’s unclear whether House Republicans will support a deal if they assess that the price Democrats are seeking is too high.

On one hand, this is the most significant change in domestic energy policy in two generations. On the other, it’s a comical mess, as crude plunges to new lows amidst a glut of crude emanating from the jihadist fields in Saudi Arabia. Even more, the major energy policy shift comes at a time when record amounts of wells and oil and gas jobs are being cut, companies on the verge of bankruptcy. It’s equal to permitting a trader to have unfettered margin after his account blew up and went to zero.

With oil at $36, pray tell, where the fuck are we exporting this oil to?

The fuck out the way, bitch ass Turkish fishing boat, said the Commander of the Russian destroyer, dubbed Smetlivy.

Russia’s Smetlivy destroyer, which was anchored, issued visual warnings and tried without success to reach the Turkish ship by radio when it came within 1,000 meters, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said Sunday in a statement. When the vessel didn’t respond and closed to within 600 meters, the Russian warship fired, prompting the Turkish boat to change course, the ministry said.

Ahmet Hakam Gunes, Turkey’s defense attache at the embassy in Moscow, was “urgently” summoned to meet Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov. Russia said it’s “deeply concerned” over the incident and informed the attache of possible “harmful consequences over reckless actions” by Turkey regarding Russia’s military forces, the Defense Ministry said.

I like how Russia summoned the defense attache right away, knowing full well that jihadi fishing boats are likely infesting the waters, trying desperately to blow themselves up for the sake of jihad and 72 underaged virgins.

This is a very pleasant film, following a tumultuous week in the markets. Most people are unaware of this movie because it was made so long ago. Nevertheless, it’s the only movie that I’m aware of that shows how the collapse will happen and how everyone will be fucked.

It’s widely known that gold bugs masterbate to this movie.

Exodus is spitting out its lowest technical score since 9/28/15, which was the bottom of the summer malaise at $188 on the SPY. Within a few weeks, the market went on a tear, exploding by more than 10% on the NASDAQ during October.  It’s entirely possible that we’re setting up for a similar run in January. Then again, the market is a fucking ‘keg of dynamite‘ and we’re also doomed.

At the end of the day, we’re all doomed. These are the last days, the seminal moments of our lives. We can hem and haw all we want, trade this, that or the other; but the conclusion will be the same: STARK DEATH UPON THE CROSS OF WALL STREET.

Starting 2016, I will be actively pursuing short sales. I am going to keep an active long/short basket inside of Exodus and truly try to profit from the demise of others. I might even take it a step further and create something for you to tap into directly. More on that when I’ve figured out the details.

One thing that I can promise you: the good folks at iBankCoin are dedicated towards the winship of the market and will toil away at achieving said goals. After we toil, we will regroup and toil some more.

Have a spectacular weekend.

Imagine yourself an investment banker in 2009. You saw oil as a supreme opportunity to raise capital for enterprising oil men, who needed to pay ridiculous prices for land leases and equipment. Post housing disaster, there was a vacuum to fill for the high yield debt markets. Asset managers ate up the new oil and gas products with the appetite of 10,000 Leviathans.

Everything was going swimmingly, until the underlying price by which all of the debt was collateralized, in this case oil, fell to pieces.

Last night, Third Avenue announced they were freezing withdrawals from their illiquid, piece of shit, junk bond fund–which is spooking credit markets and haranguing HYG and JNK today. In light of this development, Goldman is out with some fresh research, shitting onto the faces of the fuckheads over at BEN.

Enjoy

Merry fucking Xmas everyone.

BEN was down 5.8%, to $36.22, at the time of this post.

The markets are in the pits and we should get an oversold rally soon. All true. But in Exodus, we actually measure pain, showing its tangible ugly face and identify places in the market when it might turn up.

The overall market is oversold. The amount of time needed to measure the success or failure of this signal is 10 trading days. In other words, if you’re buying TNA because you expect an immediate response, you’re not looking at the data correctly.

Number 2.

Today is the first day we’ve seen the tech score move into oversold territory, during this recent decline.

Number 3.

Despite the poor nature of the markets, major ETFs are not being flagged OS. Neither QQQ or SPY, both of which have phenomenal track records, are showing extreme stress. The only ETFs of note that are oversold are: IYT, TAN, GEZ and FEZ.

Number 4.

The market is in a weird spot now, caused by distressed debt in the oil and gas space and a looming Fed hike into the teeth of a recession. Previous conditions that led to a sharp oversold rally aren’t present now. It’s entirely possible that we keep selling right through the New Year’s.

Merry fucking X-mas.

As for you oil lovers out there. We measure the level of distress in all industries. We are getting there. But, as you can see by this oscillator, we haven’t entered the gates of hell just yet.

Look at what’s happening to the commodity markets, the debt underlying these companies, trading 50 cents on the dollar. Look at JNK, HYG. I am telling you to look at it because it’s been YOU the whole time accepting of the notion that we could and we should hike rates. In other words, you are complicit in your own destruuction by encouraging the people who don’t know a damned thing about stocks to destroy us with tightening the monetary base, when we could least afford it.

Icahn weighs in

“The high-yield market is just a keg of dynamite that sooner or later will blow up.”

He’s right, 100%. I didn’t want to believe it myself. But look at the 265 billion dollars in distressed oil/gas debt. Look at CHK. Do you think it’s funny? There is a ripple affect, you know. Oil and gas towns will become depressed and the people living in them DISHEVELED.

We wanted to ‘normalize’ rates because we wanted stocks to trade significantly lower, said every single short seller in the United States.

Enjoy your bear market.

Boy I can’t wait for those federal reserve hikes next week. Yellen and co, if they even knew the U.S. had a stock exchange, might be a little more receptive to holding off on rate hikes next week–taking into account recent developments in both the commodity and equity markets. But, she has no idea, whatsoever, that stocks trade. She thinks the  American people are fending off burglars by throwing worthless cash at them. Granny is socking the bad guy with a bag of silver dollars, while grandpa is throwing bricks of cash at him, all worthless too.

You know, here in America we have a big problem and we are in trouble. The politicians here and policy makers put America last, as a matter of practive. For the better part of two years, our policy makers, the globalist elites, are more concerned with Europe’s economy, than our own. I’ll say it again, for dramatic effect.  Ever since Europe found themselves in a pickle because of their idiotic union, the Fed has permitted, even enouraged, the euro to devalue v the dollar. Hell, they’ve encouraged all currencies to drop v the dollar–because America enjoys waking up to hair splitting declines in sales, earnings and her stock market.

We’ve spent the better part of 10 years, working tirelessly to build an oil and gas infrastructure, so that we didn’t have to rely upon the marauding muslims. Well, that’s been completely destroyed in less than  2 years. It will take decades for us to get back to where we were a few years ago. Don’t you see what’s going on here? We’ve been hijacked by jackasses!

Why?

Because the brainless morons at the Federal Reserve enacted a policy that accepted foreign competitors to gain a distinct advantage v us, through currency manipulation. What did our Fortune 500 companies receive for this benevolent behavior: BILLIONS in dollars in currency losses, crashing commodities and a destablization in the equity markets not seen since 2008.

Our wonderful biotech sector has been crushed. Public markets aren’t receptive to them anymore. One could argue that they were in a bubble to begin with. While that might be true, it’s never a good thing for a bubble to pop. Don’t you get it? Wouldn’t it be preferable to see the air come out slowly? Of course. We’re not morons. We’ve seen what happen when bubbles pop and it’s not pretty.

Impossible, with policy makers who put America last and politicians who pander to an idiot class of people who don’t know the difference between a stock or chicken stock, we are doomed to repeat the mistakes of old because we have incompetents driving us into a wall made of dynamite sticks. This is like a bad cartoon.

So, what options do we have left, other than to grabbing them by their stupid shirt collars, these vapid ignoramuses, to make them look at what their doing?

“HEY, REMEMBER WHAT YOU DID TO US IN 2008? WE’RE NOT GONNA LET YOU DO IT AGAIN.”

Crash the whole damned thing and make them regret what they’ve caused. That’s assuming they even care, which I highly doubt to begin with.

What am I doing?

I’m preparing for the worst, hoping for the best.

Oil is at 7 year lows, great recession lows. China’s Yuan is at 4 1/2 yr lows, as the red communist manipulate their currency lower. And U.S. futures are sharply lower, wiping out all of yesterday’s gains.

“We are in risk-off mode,” said Piotr Matys, emerging market currency strategist at Rabobank in London.

“Another round of selling in commodities with oil prices at new lows has sent global stocks lower and emerging market commodity currencies are under pressure.”

Dow futures are off 140ish. Prepare for the apocalypse.

This is some conspiracy laden shit. The Chinese, a country renowned for efficiently sending mobile execution vans to dispose of enemies of the state, seem to keep losing their fucking CEOs.

Over the past year, senior figures at China Minsheng Banking, China Aircraft Leasing, and the brokerages Founder Securities and Guotai Junan have all disappeared without initial explanation. Similar absences have afflicted the department-store chain Ningbo Zhongbai and the waste manager Dongjiang Environmental. Now it’s the turn of China’s own mini-Berkshire Hathaway, Fosun International.

Trading in Fosun, owner of investments in Club Med, Cirque de Soleil, and New York’s Chase Manhattan Plaza building, was halted Friday after Guo Guangchang, the billionaire who co-founded the company with about $6,000 of capital during the 1990s, was reported as being missing. The company had “lost contact” with Guo, who modeled himself on Berkshire Chairman Warren Buffett, Caixin magazine reported.

Fosun is one of the most acquisitive non-state-owned Chinese companies, so Guo’s sudden absence leaves a lot of plates spinning. There’s about $2.2 billion of deals still pending, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They include a $586 million offer for the Chinese film distributor Bona Film; a $476 million controlling stake in an Israeli insurer, Phoenix Holdings; and the $232 million takeover of German private bank Hauck & Aufhaeuser. Plus the tussle for BHF Kleinwort Benson: Fosun has offered $529 million to buy out shareholders in the Belgian wealth manager, but was last month trumped by a higher offer from the French investment bank Oddo.

The CEO of Fosun isn’t an operator for the state. He ran a Warren Buffett styled operation, independet from the govt–UNTIL NOW. His absence marks the 7th highly suspicious CEO gone missing this year. Let me add that China is undergoing its worst economic decline in 25 years, is wrought with corruption, and nourishes itself on a steady diet of dog and cat brains.

If this latest CEO isn’t stuffed away in a mason jar somewhere, I am almost certain he is enjoying Chinese accomodations at one of their tidy gulags.