DENNIS GARTMAN: ‘Crude Oil Will Never Hit $75’

This evening on CNBC, Dennis Gartman, told his audience to ‘fade crude’, in egregious terms. He thinks “hedgers” are coming back into the market and that $50 might be a top. CNBC host, Melissa Lee, called him out, saying “just last week you were never as bullish on crude. What’s changed?”

He then hem and hawed and said “oil would never go to $75” and how it “couldn’t get past $60” because of ‘hedgers’.

He closed out his missive saying ‘crude oil has lost my interest.’

Him and the fucking hedgers.

My take: D. Gartman just fucked himself. Prepare for $75 crude. The stock gods mock Dennis on a regular basis.

Discuss.

I am going to remain consistent for the sake of clarity and sanity. There are many more NASDAQS to be had in this market. My set back today is nothing more than a way station on my way towards hedonistic greatness, the type of greatness that causes a person to pop off champagne corks into other people’s faces and then crack said bottle over their heads.

I have it in me to see this through. The oil barrel will, once again, fill with riches of maganaminous splendour. Investors will crowd around their hot terminals to visit iBankCoin, eternally grateful for their new web design and sage advice.

By year’s end, I would have utterly destroyed and cannibalised all of my enemies, vanquishing them admist great fires, smoke, and chards of metal.

“The Fly” is the truth in a sea of lies, a person with great distinction and certitude.

I will have my day atop the mountain, urinating on all below. Sadly, such a day is not today.

I hope you’re all enjoying the share price performance of some of our best and brightest companies, led by the coolest fucking hipsters in Silicon Valley.

I can’t wait until Duck, Duck Go comes public.

Motherfuckers.

I can’t say that I didn’t know commodity stocks weren’t extended. I mean, they were up 50% last week. In a way this is a natural reaction to a beast mode move. If I were optimistic, I’d call today’s 4% drubbing in crude, and subsequent 7% collpase in oil stocks, as a buying opportunity.

My exposure is limited to SLCA and CNX. Remember I became a fucking coal man again last week?

The problem with momemtum stocks is that there isn’t any momemtum, if you know what I mean. I keep waiting for the good times to roll and I keep getting disappointed by the jaded outcome.

Maybe this is the market we are stuck with, one that rapes and pillages until all of the citizens are foraging for food, bankrupted through speculation.

As an aisde, SHAK is now an oil stock too. That stock has gone straight down ever since the morons who run it decided to sell a gazillion shares in a secondary. The market loathes this type of behavior, greedy little VC fuckers, insiders who are devils, taking advantage of Wall Street’s high valuation to ingratiate themselves with riches.

A stock can remain expensive only if Wall Street believes the insiders are trustworthy, wholly committed to preserving shareholder value, and executing at the highest levels. Any chinks in that armor will send the stock swooning lower, until confidence is restored.

Before this company came public, I plotted and schemed ways to get in on the IPO. Unfortunately, I couldn’t get access. I guess I wasn’t important enough. I bought the shares in the after-market in the low $20’s and rode it up into the high $20’s, only to see it crashing down into the low teens. At that low point in time, I lost a small fortune, but was still optimistic about the prospects for the company.

I loved the product and had faith in its CEO, Jeremy Stoppleman, but not anymore.

Over the past year, YELP has morphed from a cool upstart tech company into a high pressured boiler room, with goons assiged to extort restaurant owners. These monsters cold call until the midnight moon appears, threatening away, meanacing store owners with bad reivews and a little wink wink and an elbow to the ribs to let them know all could be well if they simply became a “preferred” member.

The Italian mafia would be very proud.

The result of this sales approach has led to continuous disaster and bad will amongst people who use the platform. The stock has gone straight down from highs in the $70’s to the low $20’s again, all the while insiders of the stock liquidate and jet set around the world like bank robbers.

About a year ago I sold the majority of my YELP shares (I kept a little for “just in case”), after listening to one of their conference calls thinking to myself “these people are retarded.”

Now I know those people are retarded, seeing its stock become a wasteland for naive shareholders who keep waiting for YELP to get their shit together.

If you like money, avoid shares of YELP as if it were a ski-masked goon running after you and your wallet.

It’s cool that the market is up today because I am down about a gazillion dollars. All of the hottest commodity plays are being dismembered and their body parts placed on a pike.

Oil is off by 2%, but your average oil stock is down about 7%. Very nice.

Hiding out in tech? That’s a fucking problem. Shares of PANW, YELP, TWTR–poof–gone, right down the sewer pipe.

At least the IBB is up. But GILD is down, so fuck me.

LLY is having a fine day, down 8%. Or how about VMW, down 8.5% on the Dell-EMC merger news?

This ia shaping out to be a horrid day and I could accept it if the market was down 500. But seeing it up a cool 45 makes me want to punch a hole through my fucking monitor right now.

Dell just went private for $25 billion two short years ago, in  the midst of sucking some serious wind, operationally. Tonight they announced they agreed to terms to acquire EMC for a transaction worth $65 billion, making it the largest tech takeover ever.

Under the terms of the deal, Dell will pay the equivalent of $33.15 a share in a complicated transaction involving both cash and a special kind of stock. That price is about 27 percent higher from where EMC’s shares were trading before news of the deal first emerged.

You’ve got to love financial engineering. This deal bodes well for the overall health of the tech sector, as it pertain to liquidity in getting financing for deals.

In a research note out by the pencil pushers at Morgan Stanley, they cite potential upside in Q3 earnings.

Could Q3 earnings results be a positive driver for the US equity market? The S&P 500 was down 7% last quarter, the worst fall in any quarter since Q3 2011. Q3 2015 earnings expectations have once again been lowered to the point where we would be quite surprised to not ultimately see aggregate earnings upside for the 27th consecutive quarter. With this decline in estimates, we expect reported results to show modest upside. The sample size is small, but earnings for the group of companies reporting as of October 5 generally have been above estimates. The market is following the typical pattern of rewarding companies that beat consensus revenue and earnings while harshly punishing revenue and earnings misses.

 

Here are their high conviction ideas.

Essentially, they believe expectations have been reduced, alongside the prices of equities, to a point where possible reward outweighs risk.

Trading accordingly.

Abenomics is the real deal. Japan isn’t fucking around with their perverse version of QE, one that is virtually without boundaries. At $1.4 trillion, Japan’s QE is helping their equities shit on all other markets, especially their Chinese counterparts. For the year, the NIKKEI is up around 6%.

The other index that is outperforming is Russia, up 12% for the year. Truth be told, Russia’s gains are more of a dead cat bounce, after getting their fucking clock cleaned last year, amidst a currency crisis and spiraling stock market. Like China, Russia is entirely a scam, so I’d avoid.

The other markets that are outperforming are France (+10%) and Italy (+18%). This is a reflection of the euro getting hammered, providing a competitive advantage for their greasy corporations. For the most part, Europe has been an excellent place to invest, ever since they started QE.

The last real economy that is outperforming is Germany, up 3%. They’ve been hampered due to exposure to China and their retarded automobile companies, who comport themselves in the most fraudulent ways.

Other indexes with phantom economies are ripping higher in 2015, such as Venezuela (+200%), Jamaica (+39%), Argentina (+30%), Hungary (+31%), Iceland (+29%), Denmark (+26%), Portugal (+19%), Ireland (+17%). But those markets aren’t really real; they’re super phantom.

How to play them? Don’t be a jackass; just buy the ETFs.

Japan: EWJ
Russia: RSX
France: EWQ
Italy: EWI
Germany: EWG

I was mortified as a child, after seeing this movie. I felt as if Freddy Krueger was going to murc me in my sleep.

A little background on this one. I believe I was about 8 years of age when my mother thought it’d be a good idea to take my sister and I to the cinema. Instead of a choice John Candy movie, she opted for this fucking shit.

I was always in the streets, playing about the sewers, lighting firecrackers and tossing them into iced cream trucks (true story), so I wasn’t exactly virigin to the horror film genre, even at the tender age of 8. But this wasn’t your ordinary horror film; this was terrifying. After seeing this horrifying classic, my mother thought it’d be wise to see it again, back to back.

So I saw this movie, which scared the shit out of me, not once, but twice. After leaving the theatre, the entire parking lot was vacant and it was dark, and also foggy. I can still remember that moment, after the film, in the dark fog thinking Freddy Kreuger was going to hand knife me to death.