iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,533 Blog Posts

Surprise! The Market Sucks

In all actuality, being down a hundred after the melt up we had isn’t such a horrible thing. But it’s the manner in which we declined, post bullshit “good news” futures melt up. I hate it.

This market is a widow-maker, destroyer of capital, bastard of bastards. The one ace in the hole, oil to zero, has completely turned on a dime and now is the single best place to put one’s money. Fuck me running sideways. But I’m not complaining, as I saw it coming and have plenty of oil longs.

But, if you look closely, each and every morning, Wall St. analysts have been downgrading oil stocks, post 65% sell off. These monsters missed the top and ate crow the whole time. Now that the sector is bouncing and crude caught a bid, they are taking this opportunity to downgrade. Puhleeze. No one knows where oil is heading, certainly not those clowns.

All in all, it was a good week. Stocks responded in the oddest of ways, despite the soviets in Greece attempting to ruin the ECB. Let’s cross our fingers and party to the Gods that next week brings us similar fortunes. Although I am reticent to believe in any form of momentum, up or down. The conditions are present for a face ripping rally though May, with the exception to individual names like GPRO and YELP who can and will ruin you via earnings shortfalls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY1o5eL8DY4

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28 comments

  1. J Adabese (your pen pal)
    J Adabese (your pen pal)

    Fayst !!!!

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  2. spydercrusher

    Great call re oil. WILL GIVE INDEUD.

    Forgot to comment on your last post about this, and I know you know how I feel about social media (re: comments in prior blog post, they all suck), but question for you…..AMZN / NFLX

    They seem like they have a lot of momentum coming off this recent quarter, so maybe they are the “new” overpriced darlings.

    If you look at a Facebook when it was trading in the teens and gapped up to 32 based on huge surprise, that’s somewhat emblematic of the AMZN qtr. It was dead money for over a year and now is the hot ish. I have some exposure to that (post eps that is).

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    • Dr. Fly

      I am a big AMZN, NFLX fan. But they aren’t the traditional social media names. That sector has gone by the wayside.

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      • zheeeem

        I love AMZN, except when it gets crushed by the market, which is usually. I’m selling this pop, fortunately at a decent profit. But it’s been painful to hold for the past year just to get my bloody money back. Next earnings, Bezos will snuff out the brief flame of optimism for good.

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        • spydercrusher

          everything you said is exactly why I expect it to run higher.

          And, I take exception with your blah blah blah about Bezos.

          Look at this quarterly return profile for the stock in the last 12 yrs

          Quarterly Return is Bottom Pane

          Not to many ways to run the company better for long term shareholders. In other words “with the exception of the last year, which has been dead money, this explosive quarter will fuel a 1 to multi-qtr run to the upside”

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          • zheeeem

            Right, except if Bezos doesn’t show the same earnings next quarter as he did this one, the stock will be brutally crushed. Talk about how wonderful the company is long term doesn’t cut it anymore.

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        • og

          I think AMZN may have finally turned on that profit spigot everyone talks about.

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  3. scooter186

    Serious question Dr. Fly…does your opinion change on a stock when it gets pummeled on an ‘ok’ earnings report vs. an atrocious earnings report? I am asking for a “friend” that owns a stock that definitely isn’t YELP.

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    • Dr. Fly

      Often times post blow up is the best time to own stocks. Everyone casts them aside and leaves them for dead. Typically, those a companies with solid free cash flow. When a momo stock, like YELP, without any real income gets broken, it needs a quarter or two of much better than expected numbers to regain Wall St confidence.

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  4. matt_bear

    i booked a 300% profit trade today. market seems ok to me.

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  5. it is showtime

    Yesterday:
    “Most-Shorted stocks are now green”
    “Today alone most-shorted stocks are up 1.8%”

    THE PEOPLE HAVE NOT SPOKEN
    It is programmed money input from
    fedORprimarydealersORx

    Most-shorted stocks clearly being Used. That’s an intention of Forcing the market, not a lol market lol wanting to higher lol
    The delusion of Strong markets is so fake. Bulls

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  6. djmarcus

    Really good song. Nice find.

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  7. BlueStar: Contrarian Investor
    BlueStar: Contrarian Investor

    still undecided who wins yet. purgatory.

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  8. pyromonoxide

    widow-maker! yes.

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  9. ironbird

    $HABT started the out performance of the “love” $SHAK today. The next great American Burger joint will not serve fucking hot dogs. Book it.

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  10. vampyr

    Dr Fly, Nothing to do with “the market” but this notion fascinates me: “… the soviets in Greece attempting to ruin the ECB”.

    It just occurred to me earlier today that Greece could easily become the next Cuba for generations to come. Vlad officially loses Cuba and, not quite so officially, gains Greece.

    I am indulging myself, forgive me, but I love to ponder the endless possibilities of this power swap; even if it feels as if we’re all just breaking even – – for now.

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  11. sloop

    This market is trying to telling us its going DOWN BIG soon

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