18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,599 Blog Posts

Never Short a Bull Market

It’s very possible I am setting myself up for disappointment, bullish into a tight Fed based off a theory of Euro Dollar carry trade potentialities. Nevertheless, in a boring tape we must amuse ourselves and I haven’t been able to amuse myself via profits recently, gaining just 22bps for the session compared to +163bps for my quant and +88bps for my longer term account.

I can conjured up ideas as to why I suck and think about routines to help myself think differently, in order to get back on track. But the only thing that works is to study the tape and try to find correlations and attempt to anticipate future movements in a manner that doesn’t place myself in danger.

Focusing on a particular sector can do two things: lead to underperformance or overperformance. When in squall, it’s best to diversify equally just to ride the coattails of a trending market, which we are in. You lose if the trend stalls and tanks lower. God forbid that should happen now; I might be rather upset at the specter of it all.

At the opening tick this morning, the Russell traded lower by more than 1% and it closed up 0.15% with a massive move in crude. If you timed it right, you made more than 1% today.

Semis and industrials were standouts, an overall all American bull market vibe.

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