The Ultimate Market

I have a true story for you this morning. My window cleaner texted me this morning, complaining about the stock market and how it keeps making all-time highs despite the economy underperforming. He’s a gold guy, Tea Party extraordinaire, hater of Obama to the third degree. Guys like him, and Rick Santelli, would love nothing more for the country to burn under the leadership of Obama. It would justify their missing out, so to speak, on one of the greatest bull runs the market has ever known.

My response to his text isn’t important. What is important is the wall of worry that we seem to overcome each and every time the market runs into a snag. This time the depths of the decline in some of the high tech stocks was a little more worrisome than previous declines, causing a full Edward Longshanks rout of the sector. Lo and behold, all appears to be good now. The weather is getting balmy. Restaurants are buzzing and people are getting drunk again.

Gold and silver stocks are placed back into the ‘fag box‘ and WDAY beat earnings again, for what is probably a record for any single management team in the history of publicly traded companies.

I’ve upped my risk profile a little bit and hope to take some short term profits soon. I am not going to just sit back and watch my positions climb or drop. I intend to be very hands on with my holdings, as it is the only way for me to outperform the market.

I’m expecting a little profit taking this morning, followed by a late day recovery. We should post another up week and continue to rally from now until late June.

I have a whole list of stocks that are prime, ready, to rip. The common denominator of all the recent winners simply lies in the fact that they’re down more than 20% over the past 3 months. Indiscriminately, the market is bargain shopping in the trash heap, bidding up stocks that were tossed aside a few weeks ago: classic dead cat bounce.

I am going to give you tonight’s list of potential screamers, but accentuate one single name: XON

While it’s true, I am talking my own book here, having bulked up on the name over the past week. It has all of the rich characteristics of a stock ready to slap the ears off short sellers. More than 70% of the float is locked up by insiders and/or activist shareholders, leaving very little in the float left to trade. With about 20% of the float sold short, this could get very ugly, very quickly, should XON catch some fire. I believe it will, very soon.

Here are the other names on my list:

ALNY
IMPV
ICPT
ECOM
CRCM
MKTO
NOW
WETF
LNKD
RNG
N
SCTY
CNQR (OWN IT)
MBT
FUEL
YY

For the sake of my sanity, I will keep this brief.

Everyone believed when David Einhorn said we were in a bubble. They followed him into his bubble basket and then went to the SALT conference, to cavort with one another, drinking champagne and eating coconut shrimps. They made great speeches about “the end is near” and how the current stock market was to be “unsustainable” and we should “sell now” or forever hold our penises. The truth of the matter is, the retarded folks at SALT are now the sheep. They eat the grass fertilize our crops.

Since everyone is a hedge fund manager these days, no one is a hedge fund manager. I mean that in the colloquial sense that hedge fund managers are synonymous with smart money. Right now, they’re the dumbest money around.

Everything’s up again. The broken elevator action has been stopped and we are back in the black. As such and accordingly, I applied risk to my portfolios today by selling PG, FANG and buying loads of XON, IFON (very little) and CNQR.

I also sold out of my program purchase of QQQ, that was flagged by The PPT‘s oversold signals, for a 3 point profit.

I believe we have a window of opportunity here and I am trying to maximize my potential, without taking on too much risk. It’s a delicate surgery to perform. Then again, I am a Doctor in blogging, god damn it.

I overweighted this position, up 8% from basis. My short term target is $20.

Going to overweight a speculative stock soon.

I sold out of FANG, despite loving the name. It was down 3% from my basis and I have zero tolerance for underperformance. I replaced it by adding to CNQR, which wasn’t a core holding until now.

Aside from that, I nibbled, again, on IFON and am quite pleased by today’s showing, up nearly 1% thanks to JAZZ.

Two weeks ago this blog was seething with pessimists, men clowning about the site in burlap’d clothing attire–screaming at me for being “long and wrong.” Although I was wrong, I made the right decision by staying long and resisting the temptation to go short. My problems are far from solved here. However, the point is this: the crowd is always wrong. Period.

There are very few times, save the social media bubble post FB IPO, when the crowd, the unwashed masses, are ahead of the curve. More often than not, when an opinion is so universal, so absolute, it’s time to go the other way.

Then again, we’re in a roaring bull market and have been since 2009.

Early this morning, on the Twitter and elsewhere on this site, most people are foaming from the mouth to get long again. The church of technical analysis permits this sort of “side-switching” because “the trend is your friend.” This is all inane rabble, as you know. Nonetheless, the market appears to want higher again.

My game plan is to follow the roadmap of 2000. Our bubble blew up last month. Now we will recover and offer false hope to the masses, before the “hammer of certain death and despair” strikes a fatal blow in late August.

By the way: in case you missed this gem, Jon Stewart, America’s only main stream journalist, skewered Tim Geithner in a 45 minute interview last week. Check it out.

What worked last week?

This is taken from the new PPT, currently under development.

1 week returns for industries.

Here are some individual stock winners.
Solar: CSUN, TSL, YGE.
Internet service providers: REDF, TRLA, SIFY
General Entertainment: MMYT, VGGL, PRXI
3-D: DDD, AMAVF, ONVO
Hospitals: CYH, CCM, THC

What’s next? Let’s have a look at some laggards.

Last week a slew of beaten down tech stocks rose by double digits. But what’s down big over the last 3 months and didn’t gap higher by 10% last week? Very simple analysis.

From that list, I am long CNQR.

While I do not agree with the egregious foreign policy decisions our politicians have made for this country over the past 40 years, I am thoroughly grateful for the servicemen who served this country. It’s important that we remember and respect the fallen men who died fighting for the benefit of the rest of us, sitting idly in air conditioned offices, thinking we’re all tough because we bulk up at the gym.

Speaking of servicemen (82nd airborne, Iraq war): former blogger and friend of the site, Rhino, is working on a new project. You should give it a look and mark his progress (it’s still under development).

Have fun eating hot dogs and drinking out from budweiser cans. I’ll be enjoying my birthday, drinking a nice Bordeaux, courtesy of Ragin Cajun.

All of the panic and strife from two weeks ago has withered away, like pixie dust in the wind with the profits of professional short sellers. The stocks that everyone was afraid to own are now ownable, bankable companies, worthy of your attention. Look at FEYE, DWRE and NOW screaming higher.

The good folks over at GOOG have decided that they do not like SALE’s coupons and have prohibited people from finding it on the internet, in favor of COUP’s coupons. While some people might say “that’s punitive, anti-competitive and generally unfair.” I say to them, and anyone else, the internet belongs to Google, so shut up.

Most of my stocks are higher today and I am back on a profitable path, but there is a cost. No longer am I able to toss around millions of dollars into whims, play around like some animal in a field of garbage. I am much more selective now, imposing rules and order to my trading practices. Believe you me, there are so many degenerate stocks that I wish to own now, but I simply cannot afford to buy them. Until I make back 10% from my -32% loss, I am in the proverbial ‘fag box.’ In case you’re wondering, I am still down about 32%, so there’s nothing to get excited about just yet.

HOWEVER, I need  to remind you of the imperial powers of The PPT, flagging  the market to be oversold on 5/15, when the SPY was at $187.4. On that day, I purchased QQQ, as part of my new trading strategy, at $87.4. I will sell it  on the 7th day, which is Tuesday, most likely for a 3-4% profit.

Over the past 12 months, our mean reversion algorithm is 100% accurate, 10-0, over a 10 day hold. Over the lifetime of this algorithm (2008), it clocks in at 85% accurate.

To get ahead in the market, I do not need the holy grail. All I need is an edge. This provides me with that and I’d be remiss if I didn’t take full advantage of the tools god has bestowed upon me.

Amen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF7C8NFzAGQ