S.H.O.M.P.

The oversold signal of The PPT wins again.

Chinese burrito style, I bought JMEI.

I started a position in AG.

This is precisely what one should expect when positioning for a move to the upside. First you get some carnage, especially in growth names. Then you stabilize for a day or two, then BOOM: explosion to the upside to new highs. This market has never been in jeopardy. Plenty of people just got a little spooked seeing stocks like WDAY and YELP get worked again, after witnessing the spectacle during April and May.

Having said that, I am still reluctant to ride these stocks into earnings.

It appears the CYNK saga is coming to an end, sadly enough. I was looking forward to that stock going to $100, becoming one of the most valuable companies in the world, yet not having an office or underlying business. The fact that this happened is a stain on the OTC, a place where degenerates partake in scams and gambles. The over the counter market is a mockery of human existence and it should be eradicated. If given the chance, I’d close the entire marketplace down today, tell everyone who owns OTC stocks to “fuck themselves” and then go for a steak lunch.

This sell off is 100% bogus. But that doesn’t mean we can’t trade lower from here. We’re at an interesting juncture in the market where just about everyone, including the bears, believe we will bounce. This has been reticent about committing the bulk of my cash into equities. Just today we’ve witnessed a massive turn in the major indices, from overly bearish to mild. Bonds have retraced earlier gains and for the most part, gold and silver stocks have completely reversed and have gone lower.

Big cap tech, and old school low PE names, are ripping.

In short, I like TSL into a market turn because it’s liquid, undervalued, and solar correlates well with the NASDAQ. Other than that, I did a small average down in RUBI, which has become a major dog for me. I will be happy when I see some green on my screen. Until then, Señor Tropicana is keeping the faith, fully confident in anonymous bidders showing up to bid again. But this drama, frankly speaking, it’s too much for me to bear. I must be leaving now.

Ciao.

I started a new position in TSL, after having sold it higher. And, I added to my RUBI position, which is an average down.

Bubble stocks are leading the way lower. This time the rest of the market, sans REITS, select mega cap staples, and utilities, are going down with them. Forget about the inflation story, as corn, oil and the rest of the commodity sector continue to swan dive lower. It seems the only place of respite is in fixed income/dividend plays. You find a stock that is yielding more than 3% with a solid credit rating and you will also find a stock in demand.

Do we ignore what is in front of our faces and simply buy the blood? Or, will this market rout grow legs and become the monster it was during April and May? You know I believe this sell off will be shallow, but I am open to suggestion. As of now, I am still sitting in a 30% cash position–stuck in positions plunging lower. I am tempted to average down in a few, but that’s what got me into trouble in April, so I am refraining.

But, I must admit to you, based upon the laws of science and mathematics, this market is going to bounce soon and hard. It might trade lower, materially, over the next month or so. But over the next 10 days or so, a bounce is what you should be looking for, not despair.

This sell off will be furious at the opening of trade. I could scrounge around and find the article that will tell you why we are set to go lower, but I’d only be wasting your time. See, people are believing that some Portuguese bank who missed a bond payment is the reason why we are going lower today; but that’s just an excuse. The real reason why we are going lower is complacency.

We’ve been on a record run as of late, with the most consecutive trading days booked without a 1% move in the indices since 1995. With the VIX so low and the markets so high, this was bound to happen. My only reservation about throwing the baby out with the bath water is that there was never a baby to begin with. Our fictional markets will commence its sci-fi run higher, as soon as we shake the trees of the catamite speculators.

Gold and silver look interesting. But I will likely stick with a broad index ETF as an instrument to buy this dip.

Many of my readers are acutely interested in seeing others agonize in pain, both in the physical and emotional. The good news for you, I’ve been able to isolate a sector of the market that has been disseminating pain, freely, all year long. It’s a curious case (no Benjamin Button), mind you, how this massive part of the economy is wallowing in misery, as everything else melts up. I am simply providing information here and do not have a diagnosis.

Let us now share some miserable news together.

Median Returns, all YTD and notable members of each index. Data provided by the glorious robotic fury of The PPT.

Electronic Stores -25%
BBY -20%
CONN -39%
RSH -66%
HGG -25%

3-D Printing -21%
VJET -49%
XONE -39%
DDD -38%
CIMT -28%

Home Furnishing -24%
GMAN -45%
PIR -32%
BBBY -26%
KIRK -24%

Apparel Stores -10%
BODY -83%
CACH -73%
ARO -64%
BEBE -44%
DSW -34%
SCVL -31%
TLYS -30%

Grocery Stores
FWM -64%
NGVC -49%
RNDY -49%
WFM -33%
TFM -19%

Personal Products -11%
NUS -47%
RDEN -40%
BTH -33%
FHCO -32%
IPAR -17%

Catalog and Mail Order -11%
OSTK -51%
NILE -40%
LQDT -35%
VVTV -32%
STMP -17%

The common denominator in this sector of the economy, afflicted by misery, is you: the US consumer. Is it possible for this trend in retail to continue, while reaching GDP consensus estimates? Will these stocks, specifically retail, represent enormous opportunity heading into Q4, or will it continue to decelerate, offering nothing but cancer, metastasizing inside of portfolios–worldwide–crushing the hopes and hearts of the retail investor until they are destitute–almost pig-like beings–regular mendicants carousing about the boulevard in most undistinguishable fashions.

Although the market was higher today, I felt uncomfortable with the action, which is why I held my cash horde intact. If anything, the oil and gas space looks interesting here. But this is my conundrum.

With earnings season here, do I delve back into the degenerate high valuation space, in hopes of catching some quick wins? Or, should I invest in a wide array of diversified sectors, in search for the slow, yet incremental, returns? I am leaning towards the latter, since it’s entirely possible we are about to rotate again, a la April. With that being said, I’m still holding onto some vagrant securities, which aren’t too big on their own. However, with more than 30% of my assets in cash, they tower over everything else.

One way or another, I will resolve this issue shortly and try to get back to winning. June was a spectacular month for me. Thus far, July is flat. I need to step it up, in order to stay on track to make back all of my losses by December.

By the way, The PPT flagged it’s first OVERSOLD signal since May 15th. Chalk up another W for the good guys.