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Yearly Archives: 2014

FLASH: S&P FUTURES ARE NOW DOWN 9

You have to look at the fair value, chaps.

I expect there to be massive amounts of carnage and blood to be flowing in the streets of Wall tomorrow. There isn’t a Bearded Clam anymore, just a nice olde lady at the Fed who is busy knitting her grandkids new sweaters.

There isn’t any cocaine left either. Ben took it with him to the Bering Sea.

I don’t expect the crash to occur overnight. Rather, I believe it will slowly develop until the last bull, the very last bovine, gives up in an act of grave desperation. At that point, I shall reenter the markets with a full chest and bury as many bears as I can, at least what is possible for one, singular, human being.

Today I was AFOP’d and my YTD gains are all but gone. I’ve been reckless and complacent. But I am still in the game, as crazy as ever, with a point to prove–yet again.

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ARE YOU READY FOR ANOTHER LEG?

Puerto Rico was cut to junk status at S&P, a well deserved designation. How are you bond criminals enjoying the triple exempt status?

No one believes in the next leg lower, which is exactly why it is going to happen.

I closed out today in a 75% cash position.

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Prepare for Another Leg Lower

Today is a dead cat bounce. Tomorrow we might resume the current leg lower, in a significant, dumbfounding fashion. With every correction comes a washout. Maybe I am just jaded because one of my biggest positions just punched me in the face, then threw me under a bus and rolled on me a few dozen times. Or maybe it’s because natural gas is ripping higher again and I was forced to cut losses on AREX because it’s acting like a GOD DAMNED oil stock now.

One way or another, I am probably better off doing nothing, staying away from money, heading off to the gym to inflict serious bodily harm to myself.

Speaking of God, who knows why BALT is trading higher. Look at the BDI and the Capes and ponder to yourself: “what are they thinking?”

Hey, I still own GOGO and the FDA hasn’t declined any of their cancer drugs today, so maybe it might go up. Or, maybe it will go down? Either way, I am perfectly content with the outcome, as I’ve grown to embrace the homeless man clad in feces.

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A Clean Slate

I just caught my first pin less hand grenade of the year with AFOP, a top 3 position of mine. In times like this, I don’t care to discuss what went wrong or how wrong everyone else is for selling. Wall Street is a fashion show and AFOP is a three piece plaid suit right now, so I am out.

Booking heinous losses in AFOP was coupled with locking in massive gains in ANGI. Finally, I sold out of my largest position, AREX, for a small loss. The point here is to start new. I wasn’t happy with the positions that I had, so I ripped them out and moved on. The only stock of meaning left is GOGO. Part of the issue with taking big positions, 20% stakes, is the other side of that blade. When they work, life is grande. However, when they fail, especially during earnings season, life becomes somewhat difficult, to say the least.

So instead of lamenting over a down position, wondering when to average down, I just decided to sell it all and start fresh.

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No More Federal Reserve Put

I find it hard to believe Benjamin “The Bearded Clam” Bernanke resigned. He was fired by our bank hating Prezident, who wanted to place the insane man, Larry Summers, at the head of all tables. When that failed, miserably, he conceded to Yellen–but not after hemming and hawing about it.

The blunt smoking ways of Bernanke, catching short sellers flat footed at midnight, infecting their dreams with visions of doom, is gone. He’s now on the love boat, sailing the seven seas, somewhere near the Bering Sea. He is watching the mess unravel and can only marvel at his track record of saving the world, not once, but twice, all the while our cabal of amateur politicians threw mud and rocks at his good name for meeting extraordinary circumstances with extraordinary antidotes.

Ben had the world under his “Iron Dome” of liquidity, keeping the music going long enough to help us forget about what was in store for us in 2008.

Now he’s gone and coincidentally everything seems to be unraveling again.

Let’s see if Yellen runs with his playbook, or is under the directive of the President–who’s busy organizing communities, instead of governing from the top.

The blunts have been extinguished and the Federal Reserve ashtray has been cleaned out and filled with old lady butterscotch sucking candies.

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The Bargain Bin

I am not looking for high fliers on sale. I am looking for high growth stocks that have sold off due to the overall market correction.

Here’s what is on my radar.

WETF
YNDX
DDD
DWRE
AMZN
RH
GNRC
FSLR
MONT
YGE
OSTK

If we gap down tomorrow, I am a buyer.

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90% Down Day Spells Capitulation

Did you know that there are only 166 stocks, with market caps above $1 billion, that are within 5% of their 52 week highs? The Dow is now off 1,000 from its peak and Chairwoman Yellen is set to preside over the dumbest stock market rout since the great nano-tech bubble of 2004.

I’m taking claw hammers to the skull and brain today, like many of you. But I do have some cash and a mind for this sort of thing. Truth be told, you and I, the unwashed reader, have gone through many tapes like this and have always came out on top, haven’t we? I don’t see any reason to believe this time will be different. It’s important to remain cool, try not to sell at the bottom, and buy more when the selling programs have exhausted themselves.

Just to play devil’s advocate here for a moment: there is a very large equity exposure in the accounts of the investing public, from pension funds to hedge funds to the average Joe. Margin levels are extended and complacency has been high, which might lead to an exacerbated decline to the downside. If the pain is too great, drop out now and spare yourselves from the agony of having to work through the sludge.

At the core of the problem is “Fed tapering” coupled with “Emerging markets” not emerging anymore. The Yen carry trade is unwinding, the dollar is strong and treasuries and precious metals are safe havens, all classic bear market traits. The liquidity that drove stocks to fantastic heights is being withdrawn, frankly. Hopefully we can get it back soon, else selling will beget more selling and then people will call for a crash scenario to “put in a firm bottom.”

It’s all a ridiculous process, one that I loathe, sponsored by a media who don’t really know anything about making money in the markets. They are only interested in witnessing your pain.

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DEATH TO STOCKS

I think I’ll wait for lower prices.

There is nothing for me to boast about, except the fact that I called this correction to the exact day. I am neither short or in a large cash position. My positions, just like yours, have c-4 sticks attached to them and are ready to be detonated, at any given moment. The only discernable difference between you and I is that I relish set-back and work well under pressure. I am never comfortable living in a utopian society.

I have 12% of my assets in cash and that’s a lot (for me), since I was leveraged at 150% of assets for most of 2013. I intend to purchase your margin calls, just at the right time, then sell into the rally, furiously, as if my head caught fire.

My prediction is for another 1-2% lower in February, which means today’s clown show is dated. We will bounce very hard in March, to the tune of 6-9%–because that is the playbook of 2000, the one we are reliving now.

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