Draw Downs greater than 30% in two months, looking at the third.
MSFT
2000
April: -34%
May: -10%
June: +34%
1987
October: -27%
November: -8%
December: +12.5%
2000
November: -16%
December: -24%
January: +40%
CSCO
1997
Feb: -20%
March: -14%
April: +8%
2001
Feb: -37%
March: -33%
April: +7%
2002
Feb: -27%
March: +18%
2001
August: -15%
September: -25%
October: +39%
2002
September: -24%
October: +6%
November: +33%
2000
November: -11%
December: -20%
January: -2%
ORCL
2000
January: -11%
Feb: -35%
March: +5%
1990
March: -17%
April: -16%
May: +24%
2002
March: -22%
April: -22%
May: -21%
1990
July: -26%
August: -32%
September: -44%
2001
July: -5%
August: -33%
September: +3%
1987
Oct: -21%
November: -13%
December: +31%
1998
November: -7%
December: -32%
January: +4%
SPLK
2014
March: -23%
April: -8%
FEYE
2014
March: -28%
April: -23%
WDAY
2014
March: -17%
April: -15%
Discuss, if you please.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
More drawdowns coming soon to a portfolio near you.
I guess you ignored the part when the 3rd month bounced, on most occasions.
Indued
Interesting stats. There is not a date on that list where the SPY did not get slaughtered. Short the indexes? Buy vol?
Possibly look for a bounce in growth as the indexes finally give out.
Does the trading idea fit the facts …. or the facts made to fit the idea?
Jon… I love it. That’s a common theme here. Buy a stock for fundamentals and when that doesn’t work out, justify it with technicals and vice versa.
So another month of hell sitting in idle sewers, then unchecked hedonism once again… Don’t I need 100% return to break even on a 50% draw down? Math sucks.
None of the numbers look too impressive. At best it means if you’re been riding it down all the way you might as well wait for the bounce before you cut it loose
The problem is that you’re only including the top tech companies that survived. Do you really think SPLK, FEYE are in the same league as MSFT, CSCO long term?
Do the same analysis with some B list companies. Might show the same outcome, but the analysis above is flawed IMO
Bruce
I did a post discussing anatomy of a bubble a few weeks back showing stats for scmr. Even more impressivd
This is wishful thinking. We are days away from a severe and prolonged market decline.
I am hoping we make it through next week but quite doubtful. I will start putting hedges on Monday and will have completed doing so by Friday.\
I will go net short as we approach or hopefully even peak above the previous highs.
I wish it were not so, but the jig is up, the game is over. The Fed is tightening and inflation is starting to show up, and they know it.
Worst of all, this is happening as China and Japan are a fucking mess.
The dance music is about to stop — will you have a chair to sit in?
On exactly WHAT do you base this erudite analysis?
I took the opportunity to lighten up and hedge last week. We could rally next week but I would be weary as to what happens next. These stock are off 50% with the market still sitting near highs, something is going on behind the scenes.
GOOG is probably a nice place to hide out.
Yeah. SHORT.
Fly, seems like a lack of small 3rd month drawdowns. So I imagine your horsemen will have a mix of small to large bounces. But based on some of those names you profiled, an earnings miss could see any of your names drop off the table. I’m sure at least one will rocket up to offset this though.
These stocks are not MSFT CSCO or ORCL.
What makes you think that they are?
Even if they were, ORCL dropped significantly in the last two years you posted.
Sell everything, clear your head, and then begin making it all back and more!
Wishing you the best
zzz
Errata: ORCL dropped significantly in 2002 and your second 1990.
Zzz
1990 was company specific
I love it when I read these comments and they are overwhelmingly negative and fearful. The most hated rally in the world shall continue!
I have learned the hard way that an objective opinion is necessary. Blindly thinking that this rally is going to continue ‘just because’ is a sure way to lose money. If we follow the price action we know that these stocks got sold off hard and money has poured into utilities. The selling pressure has been strong and we have not tested new highs, even with positive earnings reports. Economic data is not bad but it is not good either and the market has been propped up by low interest rates for 5 years. IMO there is a higher probability that the market is going lower than higher in the months to come.
Looking for the dead cat bounce?
energy prices have always front run any major market correction. they held their ground during this last dip, and will continue for the near term. the market’s headed higher, any near-term 0.5% pull backs will be bought furiously. bank on that.
I dont think flys plan is to make it all back on the bounce
hes just using probability to try to make back some of the damage done
lets see what his y.e. numbers are before we throw him down the stairs
I guess the point of his post is to show these drawdowns are not uncommon, but they do not last forever. I left out 4th and 5th months. In many cases, gains continued, some very large.
Just buy the dip. mean reversion ftw
Readers of IBC need to just buy and hold names, where they can make a 4-5X return on their money. The fly has given so many great stock picks over the years, but pikers on this site just prefer to stay degenerates. For all the zecco account traders out there it does not matter how much le fly is up or down, cause you guys need more like a 300-1000% return YoY. Let matt bear or teddtrader gamble their bankroll away, but make sure you never sell.
Check out Lindzon re-posting false stories on $FEYE? Irresponsible
@PhilipEtienne
More $FEYE disappointed accounts, damn RT @nytimesbusiness Michaels Stores’ Breach Involved 3 Million Customers http://nyti.ms/1haYyjB
On stocktwits that is
Lindzon distorts info all the time
Messr Fly–
Is this not a confirmation bias? Surely there are troves of stocks that’ve drawn-down 30% over 2 mos then kept falling…?
I’m bullish, but what do these framed examples tell us with any authority?