The August Bond Trade is Not Dead Yet

Since 2002, buying TLT in August has been a profitable venture, every single year but last. TLT dropped 1.3% last year, and thus far, has continued its downward spiral of death this year, jarring stocks because “the rate of change” is happening too quickly.

There isn’t anything wrong with higher rates, per se (no homo). But the speed in which it is happening is something to worry about, which is why equity markets have stalled.

I don’t ascribe to the idea that “earnings” are growing too slowly or that the economy needs to “do better” before we can jack-lift (no idea what that word means) higher. Stocks go up all the the time, because that’s what they were built for. When God made man, he created war. When man created stocks, he created winship.

I have nothing exciting going on today and really need to get back to my family, else Mrs. Fly will strike me down, like a dog, with her purse.

In summary, the August TLT trade isn’t dead yet; but it’s not looking too promising either.

Disclosure: No position.

I don’t care where the stocks trades tomorrow. I am making a commitment, a very public one indeed, to never sell this stock–ever. The only way I am going to sell YELP is when they get acquired. See, it’s not a matter of if they get bought out, but when.

I’ve made a determination, long ago, that companies like YELP, TRIP, ANGI, OPEN, LNKD and Z should never be sold. However, due to the vagaries of the stock market, there are times when I try to “time the top” in a feeble attempt to show off market savvy.

The smartphone market is a $300 billion per business. Companies who are able to capitalize on mobile win. No one does it better than YELP. Hands down, the stock is a screaming buy at any time you are able to purchase its shares.

As of now, I am long YELP, OPEN and FB. Regrettably, I did not buy GSVC in the 8’s, even though I highlighted it for being $4 under its NAV a few weeks ago.

Moving on, I am in Richmond, VA, in a hotel that is filled with southern bone-heads. They rate this hotel top tier. I rate it scum of the earth. Their gym equipment is antiquated and the clerk at the front desk needs a psychiatrist and fast.

As you know, “The Fly” will be fulfilling the duties of any respectable northern man of commerce and nationalism, treading in the foot steps of the great northern general, William Tecumseh Sherman.

DEVELOPING…

The social media topic and investment opportunity never ceases to amaze me. I was uber bullish on the space, back when YELP sported a market cap in the private markets of just $500 mill. Everyone was excited, heading into the Facebook iPO, then calamity struck.

I was amazed at the carnage by the “leaders” of the social media space, namely ZNGA, GRPN and FB. All of the homeless people who circulate on Twitter had called for this destruction, based off something inside of their heads that makes them hate success. But they were right. My large investment in YELP went from $30 to $12, ZNGA, GRPN, FB collapsed and every name in the space dropped by at least 25%.

Back in 1997-98, I was researching and buying internet stocks, before it was popular. No one believed in them yet and the shares were thinly traded and heading lower, until the renaissance of speculative investing was born in 1999, lasting through 2000.

We are a similar situation today with social media stocks. However, the big difference is they are making money or close to it. The dot com era was riddled with names that meant nothing. Buzz words, such as “B2B” and “eyeballs” ran rampant Henry Blodget was the guy atop the roof yelling “buy.”

Now Henry resides at the helm of a different roof top, in charge of the best financial news site on the internet. Internet stocks are all the rage again, and slowly but surely, investors are starting to believe the hype.

Have a look at my social media index, found in The PPT.

It doesn’t even matter if this sector drops 30% from present levels. All of the bozos out there screaming “bubble” missed out on a huge buying opportunity. More than that, you will continue to miss out on future gains because you’re too stubborn to accept what is staring you in your face.

Fresh highs and new buyers come into the space every single day because it is, without a doubt, the best place for growth, hands down and bar-none, in the world.

Chalk up another L in your column, friendo.

I made money on Friday with EXTREME prejudice, even though the market was lower and you, friendo, were down. I made more than 1.4%, catapulting into your broken cities–like a giant jars filled with incendiaries, for the purposes to cremate its inhabitants.

Just because the market closed down on Friday doesn’t mean we are all subject to loss. There were plenty of winners to be had and the ground is set for a late August sprint higher.

I am tired of explaining why the market is hitting new highs and how nothing can stop it. Act like a small child and trust Father Fly knows more than you.

Very important subject at hand:

I will be going away on a ‘working’ vacation next week and will NOT be blogging on Monday. I might squeeze in a late night blog, but certainly not during market hours. As such, I’ve relegated the duties of “BLOG-MASTER” to The Option Addict.

Going into next week, my largest positions are IMMR, CXO, YELP,POWI and AMBA.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUTD86ocblc

There’s an old expression around these parts “Do you SHOMP?” Well…do you?

I’ve been in a constant state of war with the markets, since 2008. Prior to 2008, I was a market surfer, sans the stupid blonde hair and zinc’d nose. I utilized my vast network and worked like a dog, sifting through balance sheets and charts to find ideas. Post 2008, I started doing it with a click of my mouse.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I am talking about The PPT. Quite simply, it tells me when to add weight and when to reduce it.

Observe the overbought/oversold ranges.

If you are looking at that chart ^^^, you will find that we are now in an OVERSOLD state of affairs. We shall, mind you, trade higher and soon.

New all time highs are all the rage these days. There is nothing like trading from atop the summit.

The very bottom of the barrel trader scoffs at new highs, haters of the first degree. These men are not to be trusted, misfits who’d dine on the last dinosaur if they could. They are stuck in the 80’s, or worse, the 70’s. Jimmy Carter fans. They listen to KISS, god damn it.

“The Fly” is all about winship without kinship. Violence without peace. And war without surprise.

You see me coming but can do nothing about it.

Good day to you and yours. Tell your wife I said hello.

I discussed my voodoo practices with regard to CXO earlier today. As you can see, it has paid off handsome dividends, much to the chagrin of the 13 goats that I slaughtered with my own hands. After eating their hearts, I swore to the gods that I’d sell once it “rolled” past $100.

One of my favorite patterns ever is buying a stock just before it breaks $100. Nine out of ten times, in my experience, it runs straight to $105. In this case, I was a bit early, getting in at the crack of dawn at $88, because I’m an oil man.

Some of you might mistake me for a coal man; but it isn’t true. If you cut me you will find black fluids of petroleum running through my veins. I want nothing more than to see all Americans addicted to this stuff, blessed with fracking fluids in their tap water and having it wash up, organically, at the beach.

NOTE: CXO is my 2nd largest positiion.

Once again, the cretins who walk the halls of Seeking Alpha are out to destroy shareholder value.

Pray tell me, how did Seeking Alpha, the great website extraordinaire, become a bastion for the very worst people on the planet? 99% of their content is drivel, concocted by people who want to see a particular stock lower. They scheme and plot and issue ‘research reports’, disseminated across the internets, all so that the hedge fund who might have bought before the article was posted could get liquid and cover his shorts.

Do you really think these ‘authors’ are simple minded, self-directed, investors?

How many times have I pointed out their stubborn-headed wrongness? Remember when SBUX bought TEA for an all cash deal and those idiots were still screaming to sell it short, pointing to pesticides in the tea, attached with absurd lab reports? Or how about the hit pieces on YELP, at $15?

Just the other day, PAMT merged with Turtle Beach and some misfit from Seeking Alpha threw dirt at the merger, comparing Turtle Beach with SKUL, declaring the stock is significantly overvalued, yadda, yadda, yadda. As a result, the stock fell a staggering $4.

If there’s one thing Young Fly (my eldest son) is an expert on, it is video games. Aside from his exceptional IQ and being at the very top of his class, he loves to play the games. Turtle Beach doesn’t compete with the SKUL morons. They dominate the video game headset market, selling high quality electronics at premium prices. As far as I’m concerned, Turtle Beach did themselves a disservice by merging with PAMT, as they could’ve received a much bigger premium vis a vie IPO. However, perhaps they really liked PAMT’s audio technology and felt it would put them over the top.

Young Fly agrees with my assessment.

This much is certain: Turtle Beach did over $200 million in revenue last year, sold in over 27,000 storefronts across 40 countries, putting PAMT’s current price to sales ratio less than 0.5. This is the same ratio that SKUL sports. However, they aren’t targeting the same audiences. Moreover, with the new Xbox and Sony playstations scheduled to be released this winter, this is the perfect time for Turtle Beach to merge with a leader in audio innovation, a tailor made match of sorts.

Turtle Beach has the distribution channels and Parametric has the innovation. In my opinion, the stock is worth $30.

I bought shares of PAMT today.

You need to observe a certain timeline of events that just took place, live and in real time. If you still doubt the existence of the gods (old and new, never forget the old ones), let this serve as PROOF of your unparalleled ingnorance (sic).

The market was supposed to go up today. You saw what it did at 9:30, all of the bulls walking through the front door with purpose, even swagger. My stocks were higher and I felt like lighting a cigar. Then the bastard precious metal nerds came along and everyone left the party, leaving me here crying, frantically, because they’re all laughing at me.

On top of that, add OWW to the growing list of stocks that catapult higher after I sell. IMMR seems to trade lower on a daily basis. And, moreover and most importantly, I find myself in a state of stock market malaise, a Jimmy Carter phase of mediocrity–stunned by it, after doing so well for so long.

Consider the fact that CXO is my 2nd largest holding. Go look at the daily chart. There was much splendour and grandeur to be celebrated from 9:30-10 o’clock. Then everything changed. Also, consider the fact that IMMR is my largest position and it has just walked down 3 points, without interruption.

I feel a sudden curse pressed deeply onto my chest, like a bench press gone awry and there isn’t a spotter in sight.

The losses are piling up and the incense that has shrouded my presence for so long has been extinguished.

It’s been written; therefore, it shall be so.

You’ve been warned and I shall not be shy when it comes to lodging this axe into the back of your skull. You may trot down the boulevard like a man happily on bath salts. But just know this: deep in the crevasse of your city streets lies a man who doesn’t adhere to laws or reason. This man, insane as he might be, plots your extermination with mathematical precision.

This man, mind you, is The Bearded Clam.

I will be attending your funeral tomorrow.