I need to lick my wounds for at least a day and refrain from buying anything. I just went outside for a quick ride to the local store and received a ticket in the process. Today is not my day and I don’t want to compound my losses through acts of desperation.
It was pathetic of me to buy AG, even though I outlined how silver stocks trading 15-20x sales was unsustainable and it was equally pathetic that I didn’t book gains in GTAT.
So, here we are again. The great equalizer is working its magic and everyone gets a fresh start. I am going to stick with my original thesis that the market is on the cusp of much lower prices. Therefore, it goes without saying, nothing should be bought.
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US has become downright 3rd world
http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/22002960/online-video-appears-to-show-spectators-taking-boston-marathon-gear-from-vacated-tents-after-explosions#axzz2QjtrdERJ
“Yahoo News reported that comments posted online suggest that the clothing was taken to help the injured spectators and runners.”
How to play the downside ..master Fly
hdge
I’ll buy the pullback in RIG if it goes below $45 and I’ll add to GE as well. A pullback to mid $14s and I’ll add to my REM position and I am waiting to see what KKR and ELLI do. That’s about it on my watch list. The PMs need to settle down a bit and so does the rest of the market. For a minute, I thought about buying back SHLD, but I ended up buying some very nice appliances for my flip at a mom-and-pop store – Mike’s Appliances – in Syracuse after I could not get a decent deal at Sears. So, I held off on SHLD although if it retreats below $45 I may buy back in.
I have it for a week doesn’t move well enough. As of now I don’t see it synced very well. Any other ideas xlf short?…
I’ve stopped trading the short side as I’m just not good at it. My feeling is, I trade what I’m strong at and observe others do what they do best. I don’t have to trade the short side just because the market is bearish. I can look for good buy points for my longs.
even I could not convince you 🙂 and it’s ok, you should never force a trade and trade what you know… good for you..
there are plenty of stocks keeps on rallying even in this market.. plenty… look at KO JNJ MCD… so many more
There you are Old Turkey. Remember BMY and my saying buy when it was at $34-35. I was bummed I bought MRK instead at the time. I never bought BMY on my friends’ tip – he’s an engineer for them – and now I wish I had. Are you heading to Mexico soon?
haha already there 🙂
That is a very unique way to boost your local governments financial resources.
Getting tickets is not fun. How fast were you going? I got a ticket once for doing 25 in a 30, hopefully it wasn’t something as asinine as that.
I mean 30 in a 25
tech bubble 2.0 EBAY AAPL GOOG LNKD AMZN
But WAIT. AAPL was 700 so it will go to 700 again, right?
Even the pros are fooled by this age old trading logic. In which case “trading” and “logics” are an oxymoron.
Those IWM put spreads gave me the option of opening them up last week. Fly I give you the greatest market call CUDOs for this year. You said 4/15 was the DAY. Perfect call señor!!! If I miss one of your daily rants it’s only because I am out of town or playing with the kids.
nice
Fly, how about your japan macro thesis with DXJ and WETF as pin action off it….those have done pretty well since your recommendation. Isn’t Abe Bernanke on steroids and isn’t he determined to do for the Nikkei what Ben did for DJIA? This past few years is proof don’t fight the fed, and Abe is using Ben’s exact same playbook except with even more reckless audacity
Also, in my opinion, at some point, perhaps soon, oil is going to be trading at a price that reflects the impending glut of Texas Tea. SCO and DTO are good proxies
Remember what happened to oil prices in the 80s after gold collapsed?
True story, I was a busboy and the dishwasher at the Red Barn in Connecticut was a truly dignified gentleman named Ali who explained to me he had lost all his money when oil crashed in the 80s
Love wetf
Thank you for your generous donation to the state of NJ. Those dollars will be well spent.
I’m probably being thick, but pamtisthenextpick?
” I just went outside for a quick ride to the local store and received a ticket in the process. ”
———————————-
Fly…One of these will take the temptation out of those ‘quick rides.’ http://tinyurl.com/cx3tjzu
Thoughts, are you still here? You should email Fly or send him or Jeremy a twitter if you haven’t heard back. Or if you are at home now, then post a message under SPY in the PPT.
Yes, I’m back! And, I’m going to keep coming back until the Great Catastrophe happens…..and it is going to happen….one day…..you will see…..mark my words. Be afraid….very afraid.
Bachelor Chronicle V coming soon.
***DEVELOPING***
My god look at EXK….just a couple of months ago i had my entire portfolio in that at 8.20. I was going to just hold and forget it, convinced it would eventually go up. A stroke of luck i didn’t!..
But, is it a buy now? So cheap…
Statistically it looks like it’s overdue for a bounce. But it seems risky to buy things that have no bid under them at all. And right now, miners look to be in that category.
Yeah have to say i agree
Didn’t you have all of your wife’s portfolio in MCP at $12?
Well, actually, i had all of hers in there and then mine was split between EXK and MCP. I got murdered in MCP, think i got out at 7 or 8….but i sold EXK at like 8.40 and traded the bounces pretty effectively.
Anyway, i am up like 4% for the year…I suck but it could be worse.
Time for an intervention.. maybe some tough love.. every year you start off ripping through heroic trades and then through some fear of success reflex, take a flyer on a stock(s) that you know deep down is a mistake. This then becomes the “year end” self-proclaimed dumb fuck moment. Maybe reaching for oversize gains at the risk of great gains simply is not worth it though it does make for great reading. Just saying.
The year is not complete until a $VXX meltdown occurs.
Fly, there are those of us who see Fly wisdom for what it is, thoughts based on years of trench warfare. I actually took your sage advise and dripped down to 60% cash in late March. I needed a breather. Sometimes I just stumble into doing the right thing. What makes Fly the best blogger is his willingness to be honest and recount his mistakes. You must be a great Dad.
It’s touching to read how guys bond in times of duress.
Very good trading Fly. But that skill won’t be useful shortly. The world is changing. You need to be a value investor now.
http://www.cecm.sfu.ca/~rpearcea/dontvoteforgold.pdf
DUST and TZA, get risky guys. Those are balls sweating in your pants.
Fly it seems to me you should become more focused on your global macro wisdom mixed with hunches, WHICH I LOVE. These should be way more profitable for you compared to another VHC or some random volatile small cap flavor of the week. Since SODA last year and ELLI from DEC to Feb, I swore off putting up with the lame rewards for too many serious blow ups along the way by trading and holding small cap names that are easily manipulated between just a few crony hedgy boys scratching each other’s back. The same goes with the small PUDAFA dated single digit biotech world which I traded over the last year with very mixed results. Use IWM option spreads and SPY option spreads and show these followers of yours what you can do mixed in with your natural ninja feelings of the tape. I am now waiting for the next bounce to reenter primarily SPY put spreads as I think it and the IWM stay correlated tighter on the way down if we go lower. The Yen is to be aggressively shorted on snapback rallies as hedge funds blow out their trading books over the next few weeks. I think the bottom will be defined by QQQ early this summer and the QQQ’s will be the best bounce trade. QE forever will contain this market to single digit %drops. If we were to truly have a chance get to new healthy highs in the next 18 months, this selloff technically needs to happen now and it needs to scare people.