This Tape, Through My Eyes

I have tailored made indexes that I use to keep track of what I deem to be important. Let’s just get to it and I’ll explain my sentiments along the way (now would be a good time to adorn your heads with top hats, thanks).

6 Month Charts

Here is the commodity index, which is basically a cross section of the entire space, e.g Ag, Steel, Gold, Oil. It is in a bear market, no explanation needed. Is this the bottom? Who know’s? It’s making fresh lows daily, so it’s a guess.

The financial index has held up very well, despite general market concern. If the market is really gonna roll over, this needs to be taken down a few notches.

This is my semi-managed index inside The PPT. Ironically, the chart sort of resembles my real portfolio. This is in free-fall mode. The chart is of a GARP index, specializing in growth stocks that appear to be inexpensive, using traditional methods.

This is the raw commodity index. Like the commodity index, the raw stuff, which represents the real stuff, not the retarded equities, is in super bear mode.

This is my risk appetite index. It is comprised of munis, govt bonds, foreign bonds, sovereign, corporate, junk etc. This is the credit picture, domestically and aboard. As you can see, the index foretold the weakness in April back in March. However, it’s on the mend again, likely due to the risk off nature of the equity markets. My analysis is simple: this is a risk off trade in stocks, nothing to do with deteriorating credit conditions. Nothing systemic.

Social media stocks have come a long way. This sector is a strong sell in a weakening tape. I am surprised it has held up so well. This is a sector I’d consider shorting immediately.

The tech industry is most representative of this market. It’s not in bubble collapse mode like gold and silver and not propped up like social media. It doesn’t look good.

Last but not least, my favorite: housing and housing related stocks. What a run this sector has been on. Like the finnies, it’s a leadership sector showing signs of weakness. I would not sell it short, since I firmly believe housing is on the mend. Instead, I’d track it closely and buy it up into weakness.

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