And the Overflowing Toilet Company Delivers Another Blow

AS predicted, CCL guides lower, in a material, and dramatic, fashion.

Carnival beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus; lowers FY13 EPS below consensus (35.73 )

Reports Q1 (Feb) earnings of $0.08 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.03; revenues rose 0.3% year/year to $3.59 bln vs the $3.63 bln consensus.Key metrics for the first quarter 2013 compared to the prior year were as follows: On a constant dollar basis, net revenue yields (net revenue per available lower berth day or “ALBD”) decreased 2.3% for 1Q 2013, which was in line with the company’s December guidance, down 2 to 3%. Gross revenue yields decreased 3.4% in current dollars. Net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD decreased 3.1% in constant dollars, which was better than December guidance, down 1.5 to 2.5% primarily due to the timing of certain expenses. Gross cruise costs including fuel per ALBD in current dollars decreased 5.5%. Fuel prices decreased 4% to $677 per metric ton for 1Q 2013 from $707 per metric ton in 1Q 2012 and were in line with the December guidance of $674 per metric ton. Fuel consumption per ALBD decreased 5% in 1Q 2013 compared to the prior year. The company repurchased 2.3 million shares valued at $87 million during fiscal 2013.Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.04-0.08, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.30 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Second quarter constant dollar net revenue yields are expected to be down slightly compared to the prior year. Net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD for the second quarter are expected to be up 9.5 to 10.5% on a constant dollar basis compared to the prior year due primarily to the timing of certain expenses and repair costs related to the ship incident.

Co issues downside guidance for FY13, lowers EPS to EPS of $1.80-2.10, excluding non-recurring items, from $2.2.-2.40 vs. $2.37 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

At this time, cumulative advance bookings for 2013 are behind the prior year at prices in line with the prior year levels. Since January, booking volumes for the remainder of the year, including Costa, are running significantly higher than last year at slightly higher prices.

“Booking volumes during our seasonally strong wave period have remained solid with pricing comparisons improving in recent weeks. However, economic uncertainty in Europe continues to hinder yield growth…

Despite considerable attention surrounding the Carnival Triumph, we had been encouraged to see booking volumes for Carnival Cruise Lines recover significantly in recent weeks. Attractive pricing promotions, combined with strong support from the travel agent community and consumers who recognize the company’s well-established reputation and quality product offering, were driving the strong booking volumes.”

The co now expects full year net revenue yields, on a constant dollar basis to be in line with the prior year compared to up 1 to 2% in the December guidance. The change in net yields is due to the economic uncertainty in Europe and pricing promotions for the Carnival brand combined with less than expected growth in onboard revenue across the group. The company also expects net revenue yields on a current dollar basis to be flat for the full year. The company expects net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD for 2013 to be up 2.5 to 3.5% on a constant dollar basis compared to up 1 to 2% in the December guidance. The change in cost guidance is due to the impact of repair costs, as previously announced, as well as, expenses related to the enhancement of vessels in the remainder of the fleet as a result of the ship incident.

Disclosure: I am short CCL.