Erring on the Side of Gross Manipulation

Who knows where Apple’s stock will be in one year? Or for that matter, who can say if oil will be higher or lower, or natty or gold? The anointed are shuffled more often than a grade A whore house in Vegas.

Going into 2013, there are only two questions that need to be answered.

1. Will GDP expand by more than 2%?

2. Will the momentum in new homes sales continue upward?

Frankly, I don’t see the economy growing at all without a strong housing market. 2012 was a dead cat bounce year for the housing market, with double digit price increases in a number of cities. Countrywide (no Mozillo), prices rose by almost 5%.

When housing is in bull mode, all sorts of derivative plays benefit, from lumber to paint to siding to plumbing. But why bother fucking around with outlier plays when you can go directly to the source? Over the past 10 years AAPL has been a great stock to own. How about their suppliers?

Had you placed your money in AAPL derivative plays then, you are broke today.

Buy the homebuilders or short them. It’s that simple. They’re either going to double over the next two years or drop by half.

My favorites are BZH, PHM, TOL, SPF and HOV. There are others, some might be less volatile than these. But I’m not looking to make a little bit of money. I’m long BZH in order to have my balls swing low and my fists involuntarily punching people in the fucking face.

The government has narrowed the places to invest down to a limited few. Once dividends become unattractive through higher tax rates, rich folks will give real estate a second glance. You heard it here first and here it again now.

Aside from that, VHC is marching on, as their mediation with AAPL continues, scheduled to end on Thursday.

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