Back in 2011 my largest holding was WNR. I was a contrarian, as refiners were hated by Wall Street, favoring drillers and exploration companies instead. Crack spreads were wide for a long, long time; but Wall Street didn’t care. They saw the profits being generated at WNR, HFC, MPC and CVI and said “meh, it’s temporary. Short them.”
They were wrong.
Bank stocks were also hated in 2011. No one wanted to invest in banks. After all, they’re all liars and thieves. Lo and behold, bank stocks have led the market higher in 2012.
Do I even need to discuss the homebuilders? No one wanted to touch them and they ripped heads off in 2012, allowing the true believers to swim, mind you, in profits.
The same goes with biotech. I hate biotech stocks because the barrier to entry, from an intellectual standpoint, is too high. If I wanted to learn the industry and play the FDA game, I could. However, I feel there are easier places to blow up my money. Nevertheless, Wall Street climbed the wall of biotech worry in 2012 and pushed shares through the roof.
Here are some of the larger cap winners of 2012.
Naturally, my next question is the question that everyone in the world is thinking. What’s next to move? What will be the theme for 2013?
I haven’t penned my 2013 predictions yet; but I have a few ideas.
Have a look at the Yen.
I talked about this in The PPT last week. I don’t view the weakness in the Yen as something to be wary of, but to embrace. Kyle Bass is going to eat a bag of dicks, shared with Hugh Hendry, being short Japan. They just elected conservatives who want to stimulate forever, bulk up on defense, fuck up China and rebuild infrastructure.
Japanese exporters stand to benefit, a great deal, from the weakness in the Yen.
Here are all Japanese stocks traded here.
Japanese ETfs include EWJ, JOF, NKY and short Yen via YCS.
From now until the end of the year, I’ll be researching possible winners for 2013. The change in the calendar is something that should not be discounted. It’s a time when everyone starts from 0, the great reset. Anything can happen.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Do some work on Jap banks as well.
I’m more interested in exporters because of the Yen.
This might not give the rush of helmet to helmet contact or 3-D printing, but temp staffing and payroll services will be sought after as changes in hiring and complexity of benefits continues due to government policy.
Several of these are already running with bull trends in addition to beating, growing earnings.
Staffing and outsourcing in PPT
http://ppt.ibankcoin.com/industry.php?industry_id=185
AHS – earnings beat last 2Q
ASGN – earning beat last 2Q
KFY – Korn\Ferry beat
MAN – manpower
ADP & PAYX – not beating but good relative strength
How about the jerk off over at MWW?
LNKD?
Dip buyers on LNKD have always won.
MWW – if nobody wants to buy the company, I don’t want to buy it either
TROX for the win, I mentioned it here last week. I’m beginning to think some folks knew about the Barron’s article that has lifted the stock this morning.
nice
EXK continues to languish. I just wish for once i would be the beneficiary of some sort of acquisition event with a 40% premium. I could really use that here to end 2012, the year of the apocalypse.
Look at AG today
Wow…why do you think they are getting poleaxed over such a relatively small acquisition?
ON the bright side, they are paying a 69% premium. I still believe some one will buy EXK eventually….but right now it looks like i’m in a one-man tent given the price action.
2013 is the year J A Pan and company starts WWIII by pissing around with China. They will do this to save face given that the yen is going to zero. A bug in search of a windshield as has been so succinctly put elsewhere.
Japan is 50 years Ahead of china. They will fuck china up in a war, again