Every single one of you housing haters have been wrong in 2012. All day, every day, you talk shit about home values, as if they’re supposed to decline 20% year over year. Lo and behold, all housing related stocks have exploded to the upside. I’ve made money on the turn, several times, in a number of housing stocks. But the fun has only just begun–providing this trend continues.
Here are some hard facts, published this morning:
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, jumped 16.6 percent in the week ended Sept 28.
The index of refinancing applications surged 19.6 percent, hitting the highest level since April 2009.
Here are some other facts, with regards to year to date performance of a “housing resurgence” watchlist that I created a year ago.
Although these stocks are way up and multiples are stretched, they are likely to trade much higher. Picture housing as a giant boat. It’s not easy to turn around, but when it does, it’s directed with conviction. Housing has been dead money for more than 6 years. With super low rates and American’s rich as fuck, it’s only a matter of time before home values explode higher.
Naturally, there are levels of explosion that needs to be acknowledged. The lower to mid-tier homes will enjoy small increases, due to socioeconomic factors. But the higher end is set to spring board higher, in my humble opinion.
I own just one housing related play, KIRK, derived from The PPT algos. However, I am very much interested in buying a number of names, hopefully on a meaningful dip.
Aside from refiners, I have two long term themes in mind:
1. Housing resurgence.
2. Healthy food.
An example of these themes is to be long WSM, BZH, PIR, WFM, BNNY and HAIN.
For the day, I am up another 1%, back near new highs, enjoying the splendour that is the stock exchange with all of its magnificent gifts.
UPDATE: I bought APKT
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Does this apply to the US economy which is just a house of cards??
*If you enjoy this type of comments why not check out The V.Kingdom…50% off if you mention this post…
these types ….. ,
I hope you said that in a black accent.
German
‘fake black’
fake german
Real southern German often confused with black Italian…
Hey remember when 0Bama couldn’t remember the term used in Austrian language
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Bp5_E39yuc
of course you don’t
african amish
Upstate NY is housing boom right now.
Who’s buying all the houses? Foreigners?
The goberment.
In SoCal it would be the Chinese. Full cash.
While the chicken quietly awakes
I feel I need to wait until AFTER elections next month before I make any big moves. I firmly believe that Obama HATES wall street and free enterprise and is lying to the ‘street’ right now. He has been handing out free cash ala TheBenBernanke to date, but if he’s re-elected he will show his true face; redistribution, a major ass-fucking of anyone who makes more than $15k a year and a reversal of the policies that have made him the darling of the banks. If JFK could double cross the Mob, what makes you think Hussein Obama won’t double cross Capitalism? I therefore feel compelled to wait till Nov 7th to make these decisions. Just my opinion…
Your opinion SUCKS.
Obama has doubled the stock market, and Bush 44 (Romney the Tax Evader) will probably do to the market what Bush 43 (the Moron) did to it – DROP it 40%.
The problem with this analysis is it assumes you had enough confidence in President Obama to go 100% into equities Jan-March 2009. If you did “Te salute, Don Corleone”.
Most investors require a belief in the economic commander in chief. America did not have that level of confidence in Obama. They did have that level of in Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994, Eisenhower in 1952, Kennedy in 1960.
Four years into Obama and the confidence is still lacking.
yes Rigged, Obama has ‘doubled’ the stock market. Bear in mind the people on THIS board are not the typical moronic Obama-zombies. They understand he has used his office to help himself get re-elected by printing up money and in the process saddling us with the worst debt in HUMAN HISTORY and is turning us into a 3rd world indebted nation. Friends of his like the Saudis have likely helped by lowering oil JUST before elections, and the unemployment rate while high, is actually much much higher than statistics that are released indicate (as many have given up even LOOKING for work and so are not included in the stats).
I can not bet on any long term economic recovery with the ‘Imam-in-Chief’ potentially at the helm, sorry.
moolaheaven get your ass over to the V.Kingdom…Time to give you another award!
When are you going to ban this asshole, Fly?
So short the stock market then.
Hey everyone Obama has doubled the markets…You are so smart…Please post more often…And Romney evades paying taxes…Wow that is not only insightful but accurate…
He may avoid, I doubt he evades or he would be guilty of a crime. Tax EVASION is illegal, tax avoidance is not. If he’s smart in business, why should he be penalized? Obama gives almost NOTHING to charity. His income and his dealings with anti-American institutions and people is quietly buried by the media, yet if Romney makes the slightest mistake he is pounced on. Why is that? Is not the media bias towards the left, with the exception of Foxnews not apparent to everyone? I do not feel safe investing in an economic recovery if Obama wins a 2nd term. Period.
Obama tells us to “Love thy brother”….ummm
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/08/16/how-became-george-obama-brother/
The stock market Bush took on was a post dot com crash. It was only in 2006 when dems won the senate and when market started to price in a democratic president that stocks began to tank. They sold short the rumor of an obama presidency and they bought the news more or less. Of course there was forced margin liquidation going on before things really cleared out, but nonetheless, THAT is what the market says.
Obama has the Robin Hood impulse, to take from the rich and give to the poor. The progressives have McMansions and will persue policies of making housing affordable for the poor. So I think your thesis is dependant on election outcome.
er- not “have” McMansions– I meant ‘hate’ McMansions.
Yes Yabollo, I agree, the problem is that his socialist agenda ENCOURAGES dependence on big government and STIFLES entrepreneurship and economic development. Why work for 10 an hour and pay tax when you can stay home and collect food stamps, welfare and get the same money? Why develop business and hire people when you will be FORCED to pay for their healthcare and be taxed excessively? Socialism does NOT work, and right now neither does America under this fraud of a president.
Obama is a dick sucker.
Do you think he’s getting any spare butt…? I mean, Pres. of the US and all, you’d think there would be a lot of opportunity.
Fly, is your wife ware of your latent homosexuality?
So, Moolah, be sure to short the stock market when Obama wins.
On another subject:
Small cap mortgage lenders and related are ripping bear testicles.
$NSM, $OCN, $CLGX, $WAC
Use PPT (well worth the measly admission price) screen “Industries -> Mortgage Investment”
BIOL up over 40% today!!!
Housing Boom? I highly doubt it. Shit, we are starting to drink the Kool aid aren’t we?
So short the stocks then.
with #timestamps
I will neither go long or short them But I don’t believe the data this administration puts out. Never seen such a corrupt group of thugs in my life.
Well said Sloop
I can tell you this. If Obama gets another term we are FUCKED!
That is a very accurate and brief summary of my point.
The supposedly astute “economists” on this BB don’t seem to realize that unemployment is slow to come down because we had an EXCESS SUPPLY OF HOUSES.
This is different than other recessions the past 60 years. New home construction is THE primary driver of our economy. New homes mean more construction workers, more roofing and lumber, more new appliances, etc.
Now that new homes are being built again, you will see unemployment steadily drop to below 6%, and GDP growth rise to above 3%.
Thank YEW, Barack Obama!
Yes, Obama invented house building. OIG!
Sure he did! He had plenty of time to do it too. After all, he misses 65% of all National Security briefings giving spare time for cornholing Las Vegas donors.
I have a buddy unemployed working in software design, I have another friend who is a doctor who can’t pay the bills and run his practice, yet SOMEHOW your Jimmy Carter reject will ‘get em back to full employment’ by helping build houses huh? Very astute…
Let’s face facts, this president will do ANYTHING to keep his job, he will manipulate the Fed, he will manipulate the leftist loving media and he will brainwash the uneducated into thinking it’s a class war. America works best when it WORKS, when businesses can hire, when people aren’t afraid to hire (Obamacare and overtaxing). There has been a bubble brewing under this president and the clam and it is all built on fake money, lies and false promises. America’s foreign policy is an UNMITIGATED disaster, our infrastructure both physical AND moral (no Rev Wright) is crumbling and unemployment and national debt are killing us. Thank yew Barry HUSSEIN Obama.
Get over to The V.Kingdom RIGHT NOW you motor boating son of a bitch….
The guy is a fucking con artist. What I cant wrap my head around is that he has half the fucking country on his side. un-fucking believable!
Ever heard of Pro-Wrestling? The ‘pet rock’? Network sitcom television?
Obama is clever, and he does understand one thing (regardless of where he was actually born that is): ‘Never underestimate the stupidity of the general American public’ -Marlon Brando
Where is the thumps up when you need it?
Of those half who support him, 75% are on the take (getting more from government than they pay in taxes, unionized government employees, other union workers, “clean energy” guys getting subsidized, etc.), and 25% are those who only vote Democrat no matter what due to social issues (e.g., abortion). Anyone who thinks Obama actually is doing a good job handling the economy is nuts.
I keep saying this, but it’s absolutely essential to prevent that fucker from getting a second term if for no other reason than the Supreme Court. If some of those old justices retire or die and he appoints young liberals to the court who will be on there for 30 or 40 years, we’re all fucked.
LOL, unemployment isn’t going to go up just because people are building houses. Baby boomers have 1 or 2 already and plan to downsize when they retire, “buying a house” simply isn’t “cool” for the young generation. Any sign of “wealth” is “bad” which is why people are going green and living cheap without air conditioning or heat and stuff. Housing is in a temporary rally that will perhaps last until 2016. But unemployment long term is headed much, much higher. There are simply too many businesses that can do more for less, too many non americans starving, and too much technology to allow businesses to hire people in china, india, and Filipinos for $3 an hour. Minimum wage raise higher just means companies will higher FEWER people. If a company could hire one person at $7.50 as an alternative to 2 at $3, they may not do it, but if they aren’t allowed to pay people $4 an hour or less, they will opt for employing 1 rather than 2 people. Additionally, the PAYROLL TAX punishes businesses for choosing to employ rather than allocate their capital elsewhere. It may be a subtle difference, but when a company is making a big choice, and there is regulatory uncertainty, they will always make the choice in their best interest, and the occupy crowd better occupy reality and realize that people will always act in their self interest, and no amount of protesting that “rich people have too much money” or “should be taxed” or “shouldn’t accept bailouts” will change things and is futile.
No, unemployment won’t go down just because you are putting up too much supply by building even more of what is already abundant. Yes it signals there is some demand and some positive signs that there perhaps is a reason behind why they are building more (as in some demand), but this trend is likely temporary and you may see another 5 years MAX before we have the same exact problem we had years ago… too much excess credit being handed out to people too dumb to understand financial responsibility, and realize that the bank will not hold their mortgage and has every interest in giving them more house than they can afford so they can flip it to someone else after collecting a ton of payments and fees, or else keep it, and just seize the house and repeat the process.
Fantastic comment ‘Opinions’
Agree 100%. The payroll tax on business is an employment penalty and disincentive for business owners to hire any American workers other than those with special skills.
This will not change unless the current tax structure is completely overhauled.
Something like “How much did you gross”? “Please send in 17%”.
The assumption that housing is the problem is fatally wrong. Think about it long term and repeat after me……….”We will sustain our national economy by building each other new houses forever.”……
Doesn’t feel right does it?
That’s because it’s not.
We need real jobs in the non service sector that actually produce something and add value to a flat piece of steel or the equivalent. If we cannot as a nation find a way to become competitive doing that type of thing again then we are doomed to spiral lower for some time until we reach parity with the rest of the world.
The low cost producer wins. Always. He does not stay in business if he comes up to the level of his competitors.
So who the blazes is going to buy, or contract for a new house when 47% of the population is on some form of government assistance?
The boomers are the only ones who have any money plus maybe 10% of the general population under 50. Not much room for demand there.
The reason housing is depressed is not because of a surplus but rather the simple fact that no one is buying. Loss of work, fear of government, uncertainty about the uncertainty we live in all contribute to lackluster housing performance for a long time.
Housing may come back some but many are waiting for the other shoe to drop yet. And to be sure, all of Europe has yet to crash. Probably within a 12-18 month time frame now.
Just bought a bigger house in SoCal. House had 3 all cash offers.
Kalifornia is a wealthy state feigning bankruptcy.
Speaking of bankruptcy.. I got 98K left, for my retirement, and to live on. Maybe I should throw half of it in this insane market and try to double it??–I would never bet this market unless I did not care if I lost the money. But I’ve always been stupid and pragmatic.
And the Californian gov is robbed blind by business interest, or else you would be right.
(which includes total assets, but for a vehicle worth almost 5K and no income).
We just bought a house in Colorado
we live in SoCal and are leaving like the other millions have since 1990. CA is a sinking ship and I wont invest one more fucking dime in the state. I am done paying for minorities health and housing and its only going to get worse. We thought about renting but I want a 100% break from this blood sucking state.
I grew up in SoCal and I was proud of it at one time. Now I literately am embarrassed to admit I live here.
SVU doesn’t fucking move, even on the after hours news yesterday…
That’s an allegory to the debates. They have had, like, three out of four media hours advertising it, and still a wide audience is not going to buy it, or even sit through it. If you’re over 65, you probably will, and then there’s those wonks who are only watching it to catch gaffs, etc.
Just to get everyone riled up and pissed off, here is a recap of the past week of blog posts in case you missed reading any of them: “We are going up. Wait down. No, i meant up. Wait…hell, I don’t know…no up…wait, no, down. no up.”
LOL!
the market does have a tendency to fluctuate up and down over years, months, weeks, days and hours and minutes and seconds even…. So it did go both up and down and will continue to do so
Here Rigged. Watch as my hero, ‘WallStreetpro’ discusses the “printing money to make the market go higher to fuck us out of jobs and wreck our future” video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NWFA6g2x-4&feature=relmfu
The Republicans should run this guy for President. He is smarter and more articulate than RyanRomney.
But he needs a clue: Inflating the stock market will do wonders for PROPERLY invested IRA’s and pension plans.
It’s the only way to go.
What does it do for people who are unemployed and don’t trade the market or have an IRA? What does it do to create new jobs ? What does it do to foster growth in GDP? What about the blatant immorality of trying to ‘buy’ the poor uneducated masses in an election, or caving in to Islamofascism with the world on the brink?
^ LIKE
Neighbor put his house up for sale last week. It sold within 2 hours with 3 backup offers.
Then he should sue his realtor. Sounds like he sold under market value.
Good grief the pessimism on here!!! Is it that fucking bad???? Lets take it back to the late 70’s higher unemployment, 2 or 3 Russian nukes aimed at each mid size American City and ready to fly. 15-17% inflation, super high gas prices, lack of confidence in America and her leaders. Drugged out youth, minorities out of control and dirt poor. WTF has changed except my house mortgage is not @ 18.5% and the Russians can’t light us up like a Christmas Tree. Get up off your ass America and go do something productive!!!