iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,114 Blog Posts

A STORY OF DECAY AND DESTRUCTION

At the end of 2011, my target for the S&P 500 was 800.

No one out-beared me.

I had my reasons and made a commitment to invest with the idea that 2012 would be devastating for the global economy. I entered 2012 heavily long high beta names and quickly exited them after realizing a quick 20% gain. I chilled, then chilled some more. Instead of chasing, I put 25% of my holdings in TLT under $115 and started a VXX position. But the market wasn’t listening to my warnings. Instead, it ran, then ran some more.

I caved.

I blew out of my TLT for a break-even to small loss and sold VXX for a bloody loss. The PPT provided me with a precise course of action, guiding me into TZA three times, pinning me to the wall as the market climbed. I sold that too.

The markets ripped daily and I wanted in. I bought the top.

My 20% gains turned into a 3% loss inside of three fucking months. My core beliefs of decay and destruction for the global economy have become my own reality due to hubris, greed and stupidity. I now find myself rooting for something that I despise and deem ridiculous. I know there is no way out, yet rationalize my position supported by fairy tales.

Since I bought the top, I fear selling the bottom. Psychology is a fucked up thing and cuts deep when trading millions of dollars.

You might think I am joking about the prospect of this market dropping 10%+ Monday if nothing is done; but I am not kidding. I haven’t smiled in weeks and find myself clinging onto sanity by a thread. I should be selling, reducing risk into the riskiest weekend the world has ever seen.

This is a mea culpa, an admittance of failure, served cold in the midst of a blazing bear market.

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124 comments

  1. Berniecornfeld

    Stop beating yourself up….go enjoy the fam and the weekend..There is always Monday

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    • The Fly

      Monday is D-day. I can’t stop beating myself.

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      • Berniecornfeld

        Does your Risk Appetite Index indicate death and destruction? http://ppt.ibankcoin.com/watchlist.php?view_watchlist=734 nah…pffft!

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      • 'merica

        Turn that frown upside down 😉 Seriously though, get your rally cap ready.

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      • MetalLeg

        I completely understand what you are feeling and there’s only two things that can make it go away.

        1. Winning Big

        2. Time

        There are others such as drinking and drugs but those are not under consideration. This will pass because you will eventually get back on a winning streak, even if it is from a lower position and your focus will be on the situation at that time.

        Sometimes it is better to unwind positions, take losses, and start fresh just for this reason. I helps remove the present circumstances from one’s psyche although it’s difficult to take the lumps initially.

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      • Greg

        Fly You can’t change what ihas been done, Just accept it and notice your emotions are there . Then your EGO will subside and you will feel better .

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      • page turner

        Mon cher M. Le Fly. Would that this humble post lift your grieving spirits. I have noted these last 3 months that your posts have been a near perfect contrary indicator. An unindited co-conspiritor of the Cramer cartel as it were. Perchance your asshattedness will stand you in good stead come Monday or Tuesday morn.
        Or not.

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  2. novicetrader

    U sure have cojones, sir… salute…

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  3. clegger_2000

    Since you are moving, any comments from Steve the Neigbor?

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  4. Elvis

    Taking heavy losses as well. Sir, I would gladly stick my face into a roaring bonfire than sell at the lows. Again.

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  5. halfbloodpope

    I feel for you Fly because I am long with you. I look to you and then Chess and RC for a basic market sentiment. I saw them flocking to cash and you pressing the gas pedal down to the floor. I chose a path in the middle and am burning at the stake for it.

    What can I say other than Ramen noodles for dinner.

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    • The Fly

      sorry about that

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      • halfbloodpope

        I carry the weight of my own losses. Do not bear my burden.

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        • thetapeguy

          I am a degenerate piker for saying this but I am happy about the market selling off, and it will continue to sell off with upcoming greek elections and european sovereign debt crisis in our face like a fucking fat ukrainian woman’s ass. My, TVIX position is 1035 shares @ 16.40 and coming back to life, thank god. The rest is cash in that account, I am prepared to exit as soon as I see fucking 16.41 from that broken fraudulent ETF.

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  6. Nicholas Darvas
    Nicholas Darvas

    The market is setting up for a big rally starting the 2nd week in June as the options expire during that week. The collapse occuring now is all dollar related – as the dollar strengthens US stocks and most commodities must go down, like walking on a waterbed. When the inevitable setback in dollar strength happens, stocks will boom for a while, trapping the shorts. Carnac say this will begin June 11. Carnac good but Carnac only about 90% right.

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  7. jg

    fly if you were neutral, would you be buying the blood?

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  8. Gent

    Fucking sell its not the bottom yet go into vxx it can go to 50 on monday eazy on a panic.

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  9. riggedgame

    Blessing in Disguise

    The recent historical low interest rates have given
    America a chance to eliminate our debt problem.

    Ten-year rates are under 1.5%. We could finance
    our $15 trillion Federal debt for $225 billion yearly,
    for the next ten years. Furthermore, if we have a
    $1.2 trillion annual deficit, this can be financed for
    a measly $18 billion a year additional.

    These interest numbers are PEANUTS compared
    to our $700 billion annual “defense” spending.

    We’ve been handed a BLESSING. Tea Partiers-
    go chase rabid dogs and quit your complaining.

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    • Cascadian

      We eliminate no debt problem when running a $1T deficit, no matter how low interest rates are.

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    • Cascadian

      Our defense spending is what creates a safe comfortable life for you and your family.

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      • Whaler31

        Cascadian-

        Interest rates will only go up.

        I know, no one thinks we will ever experience inflation again in America.

        I concur, 1Trillion 2 Trillion, it really doesn’t matter.

        Makes you think our elected officials are actually trying to hurt the Republic (or what used to be the Republic)

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    • MetalLeg

      The $1.2 trillion annual deficit can be financed for $18 billion? What about the fucking $1.2 trillion? Who’s paying that off?

      Do you realize what you stated as the solution is really the underlying reason we got into this in the first place?

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      • riggedgame

        We INFLATE it away, you dummy. Just like inflation bails you out when you have a $500,000 DEBT at 1% fixed interest.

        After 12 years of 6% inflation the value of your debt is halved in real terms, while you have paid only $60,000 in interest.

        BTW: Why do you bother to visit a financial web site?

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  10. Gent

    Or hang on and die slowly when sunday pre market is halted down 10%

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  11. ajm

    I am hoping that since the top 5% run the world (rich and politicos alike), they will bail out the rest. Otherwise they will not be rich anymore.

    Could it be that simple? We will find out.

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  12. yoursisterspanties
    yoursisterspanties

    While your gains have eroded, you are only down 3%, hardly an insurmountable amount for the fly. Still half the year left after all.

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  13. Raul3

    Ongoing Bilderberg meeting may yeild central actions.

    But that’s coming from someone with 25% of their portfolio in TRIP, P, and Z.

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  14. Hugh Hendry

    I said the same about the same time last year: you are a great man when you follow your convictions, as has been proved numerous times since I’ve followed since 2007, ripping tits into the worst bear market in 80 years.

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  15. DarthVaderMentor
    DarthVaderMentor

    Don’t forget that shorting at the bottom is the same as buying at the top, maybe even worse.

    No QE3 yet. Stocks are around 20% above their 52 week lows. Plenty of room for falling some more and then ramping up QE3, which will take time, and won’t be effective for too much.

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    • spy007

      QE..

      In real terms QE is all BS we have been running some form of QE for years and years just since 08 when have so to speak put the pedal to the metal.
      (your bring in 3 billion is income and spend 5 billion) not real numbers

      Your real question should be what is this all leading to??

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  16. Trading_Nymph

    Fly, Come on..I at least tied if not “Out Beared” you. This is so ugly. LTRO just popped things for a small bit. IMHO,

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    • Trading_Nymph

      G20 this weekend,I don’t see move out of them with Greek elections unknown. Plus, they really have just become photo ops these days.

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    • Sooz

      Really?
      Lets get serious for a moment here, TN. How exactly do you equate a win based on (1~2) months correction out of the 3.5yrs that you have been a bearish as you bantered over your Copper Bubble Thesis?
      curious minds want to know..

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      • Sooz

        Someone who has real skin in the game also shows empathy for fellow traders who are going through a rough patch .
        It’s a game if you are using Monopoly $$.. capeesh.

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        • Sooz

          real skin in the *market
          #proper etiquette
          😉

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          • Trading_Nymph

            Sooz, I have no idea where that lame bashing about me not having money in the game..it’s false. Plus, I was not saying I was “Winning”, I said I was a Bear…and you provide that fact by pointing out my bearish stance following the price of Copper since 2009. Fly indicated that no one was more bearish then he was in 2011…and I just pointed out the fact that I was at least as bearish.

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          • Sooz

            UMMMMmm..THIS POST is not about ‘YOU’..
            You at least tied or ‘OUT BEARED’ who? The Fly?
            What a bunch of narcisstic BS..
            carry on!!

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          • Sooz

            ‘add ‘is’..NARCISSISTIC

            😉

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  17. asteroids

    I lost $600K on fucking GS in 2008. I was sick to my stomach for days. I couldn’t take the pain so I sold. If I had hung on 14 trading days I could have made most of it back. Yes, Mr. Fly, I feel your pain.

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  18. Sierra

    i’m sorry you’re having a bad day. hope you feel better ?

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  19. JTU

    Hey leftcoasttrader, in regards to your question “Since when did the price of gold and silver have anything to do with the price of miners?”
    The answer is “Today”!

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    • leftcoasttrader
      leftcoasttrader

      LoL

      True, but one day does not make a trend.

      Maybe this time is different…

      I’ve heard that somewhere before too.

      Can you tell I’m not a big fan of miners as a way to play metals? I prefer to keep my correlations close. Best of luck to you.

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  20. Minnesota Lighting & Fixtures
    Minnesota Lighting & Fixtures

    Obama’s not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

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    • Cascadian

      he’s pretty slick. “Balanced approach” as if that’s something like a balanced budget.

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      • leftcoasttrader
        leftcoasttrader

        Or “all of the above energy” and conveniently forget about coal, the largest source.

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  21. Mark

    Yeah, DOW now given up all gains on the year. Brutal.

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  22. fomoiri

    Joy in Mudville, at least with gold miners kicking the snot out the rest of Obama’s hope and change.

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  23. JROD

    3% Loss even in the millions is nothing to be knocking your head about….If I were you I would sell and be done with it and reenter when smoke is clear. If you sold at the bottom big deal… at least you know is a bottom. But what if you keep guessing and that 3% turns into 10% or 15%?. I guess my point is sell lick your wounds reassess and conquer again. You have been there before pick your self up and stand tall….

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  24. pgwarner

    Making or losing coin – This is the best work you have ever done on this blog Fly. The very best.

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  25. john

    The African (born in Kenya) will not win a second term if he doesn’t put a stop to this shit

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  26. No One

    That was harsh.

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  27. TraderRick

    Germany holds all the cards, they need to decide if they want to save the Euro or go it alone. Shit’s fucked but the Krauts will refuse the call for Euro Bonds or QE until their backs are against the wall.

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    • TraderRick

      I’m holding short over the weekend. I agree with Fly, If the assholes in Europe don’t have a credible plan by Monday, we crash.

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      • jimmy_two_times
        jimmy_two_times

        too many moving parts in Europe to get somehting done. besides S&P only -4% YOY. and we gave back gains from start of year. not enough to make a move here. If your long your usual basket of S&P stocks it sucks. If youre long beta into this it really sucks big time.

        germany will act when the time is right and when the rest of EZ is on their knees, not posturing. Cripes is Germany left EZ like Berlusconi told them today, that place will be a wasteland, and germany knows it.

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  28. whywhy

    down 3% you can erase that no problem… lighten up positions and sleep better. GL its only June. That 20% was a cushion that has been used back to work

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  29. TraderRenn

    Summer is best taken with a large dose of beach life to clear the mind.
    Best buying opportunity of the year is at hand.
    After that our work is done – let the EU sink into the ocean and forget about it.

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  30. Aileron

    Having a horrible year myself. I’ve still managed, somehow, to hold onto a 4% gain trading wise. Worst time I’ve had in years.

    Hedged heavily on Jan 15th for longer term mega-corps … blew the hedge out for a loss as the market steam-rolled me. Pushed one trade too heavily in May, and took my gains from a measily 8% down to 4% The TLT has been my saving grace, as I’ve managed to hold onto that one to present.

    Take heart Fly … as Williams once said: “You never know what part of the year you’re going to make your money”.

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  31. tw

    Sometimes it’s appropriate to toss a maiden in the well, to clear the mind and refocus. Selling a small bit of one shitty position may be beneficial.

    I am interested in your thought process here. Hedge, some selling, hold, or fold…..

    The government still has some “credibility” in that many believe they have the power to lift the market, but if that is challenged and fails, then we have some swan diving

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  32. flyaway18

    No sense mourning coulda, woulda shouldas, as my venerable trading partner, Mr. Partridge, says, “What is your plan?”

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  33. dave

    We know how this works.

    Some bullshit ‘stick save’ in Europe over the weekend and we get a big gap up Monday.

    or….

    No more hopium and we gap down more.

    You can’t trade under these conditions of uncertainty.

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  34. TraderRick

    SPX has broken the 200dma, lot’s of air under here. VIX should be higher, it’s telling me we are not bottoming yet.

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  35. xxxHuggieBearxxx
    xxxHuggieBearxxx

    Capitulate, he said….you’ll feel better, he said.

    I don’t peel so good after all.

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  36. OG

    You should always listen to your inner voice. I didn’t and I got fucked too.

    My wife’s also looking for a new house right now. Ugh…

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  37. multatuli

    There is no European Union…just Dutch hating Greeks, French despising Germans and Flemish Belgians pissing on the graves of Wallonians. The idea of EU is “Muppet Bait”, just as the idea of Facebook was. The citizens of these countries know that this construct “Europe” does not exist. Nobody in Germany, France or Holland calls themselves “Europeans” and just about everyone despises the EU government in Brussels. Only the investor class believed the idea of EU. As I said….Muppet Bait.

    Now it’s off with their heads…

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    • heaterman

      That pretty much sums up Europe as it was, as it is and as it shall be.

      They missed the boat with the EEC by not going the full federal route, which they of course will never do of their own free will. A gigantic homogenization would have to take place before that came to pass.

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  38. LD

    Watching and waiting and sometimes buying more. I don’t expect another 2011.

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  39. fomoiri

    Wow! Nice bounce in the PPT. About as much incline as my WNR after 4 vodkas.

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  40. xxxHuggieBearxxx
    xxxHuggieBearxxx

    YELP is going to start looking like an acquisition target pretty soon….can’t be much more downside left…they are worth a billion to google or facebook or someone.

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    • leftcoasttrader
      leftcoasttrader

      It depends. If everything gets as cheap as an acquisition target should be, then is anything really an acquisition target?

      All of Europe has valuations in the target zone of most companies.

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  41. Hawaiifive0

    Dip buyer can start nibbling here. The intermediate cycle low is either here or close at hand.

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  42. 5:00 PM

    I’m going from flat to about 20% in by the close.

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  43. Dr.DOOM

    WELCOME TO JUNE KIDS!

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  44. Dr Funk

    Liquidation day

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  45. smerdyakov

    It can be hard to return to your first idea once you’ve convinced yourself it was stupid. The fundamentals are really dogshit, I’d say a flush around SPY 110-115 is what we can expect but I’d be really fucking surprised if we don’t see at least some statement/action from our benevolent bankers and politicians this weekend. I was 70% in SPY puts yesterday, now I’m 90% cash, 10% October/January SPY 124 puts.

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  46. TheArtist

    DUK, not only my electric company, but a dividend paying solid play, even throughout this carnage

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  47. grantisplantis

    Horatio Clawhammer…..

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  48. JakeGint

    Here’s why you don’t have to worry. Check out the miners.

    If we were headed for doomsday, they’d be hitting the schitter just like the rest of the market, no matter what gold is doing.

    But they are up 5-10%, depending… That means SPX will follow, soon.

    _________

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  49. Chauncey Gardiner
    Chauncey Gardiner

    Out here in “Flyover country” and a prohibited reader. These are difficult times, Fly. Sanity and emotional illness are not trifling matters. Stay well.

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  50. Dogbreath

    Fly,
    You write like a badass but I get a strong sense that you’re an inherently good dude. You gave back the house money and a little bit of your own; bummer. I’m certain you’ve looked into the abyss several times before and ultimately come through intact. Wiser and scarred perhaps; yet still The Fly. This time is no different. Treat yourself to something nice this weekend; take your mind off the market. If you’ve got your family and your health, you’re way the fuck ahead in the whole scheme of things. IMHO.

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  51. The Eye-Talian Stallion
    The Eye-Talian Stallion

    GRPN’s lockup has expired. I’m sure their employees are going to run right out and sell their $20 options for $10. Just think how many cars and houses were bought based on $30/share. Same with FacialBook. “Sorry honey but I had to retract my offer for our new house and take our one bedroom apt off the market…”

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  52. Dubz

    I feel ya man, you’ll come back as you always do and probably end up another 20%.

    That said, you can’t change a damn thing so don’t let this poison your weekend.

    “Hope and Wait”

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  53. prospectus

    Since the Bernank and friends have only one chance to go nucular (sic) on the system, they are going to wait to see the whites of the market’s eyes. I’m afraid that the run to 1350 was to add some padding for the next unavoidable downdraft. They fully intend on giving back several hundred points on the ES before they drop the 100 megaton QE bomb. Two weeks ago, I didn’t think this, though. I thought they’d sashay in and beard the hell out of the bears.

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  54. Gravestonedoji
    Gravestonedoji

    The Fly is Ballin…in God We Trust, in The Fly We Bankcoin. This shall pass.

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  55. ajm

    last thought for me: pro-eurotraders have shorted the mkt to the shitter; now will cover and run the market by having a new “plan” ; they will use the profits to finance their debauchery. INDEUD!

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  56. Dr Funk

    Q1 Best in 20 years
    Whatever the f it was

    HA

    It was fake! Everyone realize that.
    Up every single day? Moved, QE’d up

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  57. Ricky Roma

    As stated here on 5/6… http://ibankcoin.com/rickyroma0/2012/05/06/seasonality-update-for-lt-accounts/ ‘While the market is likely to go down swinging at least 10% from the recent high and volatility is likely to explode (another post on why I think that), all will be well in just a few short weeks.’ Behold election year seasonality. Oh yeah, UNLESS it’s 2008 again. Then hide your kids, hide your wife. They be raping everybody out ‘ere.

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    • leftcoasttrader
      leftcoasttrader

      Over the past 100 years, the year before election years is the strongest.

      But don’t let the data stand in your way of betting on election seasonality.

      Relatively small sample all things considered.

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  58. the boost

    hi to all you big winners out there

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  59. the boost

    hi to all the big losers out there to.

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  60. isaretard

    Up big on Monday and Tuesday I say. The buttfucking comes Wednesday. Sold my vxx calls just before close and bought spy calls.
    Everyone knows the market will crash Monday which is exactly why it won’t.
    Oh & GO MVIS!

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  61. fake amish

    there will be a day when “we can walk down there and fuck them all”. today was not that day.

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  62. surplusdroids

    Be well good sir.
    In the end, The Fly always wins.
    This too shall pass.

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  63. Mr. Partridge

    Economic news do not scare me as much as retail investors who simply can through in the towel after looking at their statments…
    massive exodus possible…
    I am not bearish 🙂 I am depressed..
    thank God for gold

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  64. the boost

    i did enjoy the close a lot more today than yesterday …even though i liked yesterdays also

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  65. JTU

    Silver and gold minimized my losses today. Thanks to my holdings in EXK, PAAS, BAA and FCX, I was down 1.49%.

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  66. TraderDR

    The hard trade was to buy this close, which is often of course the best trade.

    My hedges were finally burned off Thursday and I felt the full brunt of this today. That being said I love these kinds of markets and am the most bullish I’ve been all year.

    If I was looking to bottom pick I’d be selling OTM puts in various names I wanted long term, favorite being energy.

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  67. Whaler31

    Hey, as a USCG licensed ocean captain, I can swear to the fact that a modern supertanker takes a long, long time, to stop.(Several miles)

    Turing around is an even longer proposition (miles and miles and miles)

    The US economy is a super-tanker. It takes a long-a-s time to change direction.

    Just think of the the global economy is a super-duper-tanker, with government ropes still tied to its bollards.

    So, just because some indicators and reference stocks aren’t doing the big U-Turn just yet. This is not a reason to think you are safe.

    There are NO JOBS in AMERICA.

    There is a RAPIDLY collapsing MIDDLE CLASS in AMERICA.

    You and I both know, that outsourcing, and free-trade b.s. agreements, have enriched a small group, while the rest of us suffer. The suffering has just begun.

    The goal of these folks is to collapse our great country. Take it or leave it, I have mountains of hard evidence.

    Washington has ignored our debt, just wanting to add to it with abandon….lies and bullsh-t.

    Congress is in the back-pockets of the global technocrats, and the corroboratory.

    I have long-held that this is a dangerous place we are headed for. A place we have never been before.

    For anyone to try and deny it, well, I would suggest that person is not in touch with the global sentiment going on right now.

    Surprisingly, many of the countries I use to make light of, are actually way ahead of us.

    Norway, Sweden, Iceland, etc.

    Oil is at $83, yet gasoline is at record highs (nearly $5 gallon)

    Real Estate is ticking up sequentially, yet the banks are dumping properties on to the MLS left and right, keeping the free market barely gimping along.

    I believe God must exist in some form, or this is just the halcyon haze of a blood-red firewall lying straight ahead. One just needs to look into a child’s eyes, or even your dogs eyes.

    Funny how they seem to know, without knowing a thing, isn’t it?

    I have been buying hard silver (one ounce minted coins), and gold here and there.

    Dow 3600, S&P 800, Real Estate double dip. All coming.

    The dollar is my biggest fear, and the flight to safety IN THE DOLLAR, as of late…..is just proof positive that it’s the last best hope of the modern WORLD.

    If you are in America, and you hold dollar-based assets, then consider this a blessing in disguise, and DIVERSIFY NOW.

    Don’t buy into this media crap…the Queens jubilee, for christs sake. England is the central core of this symbolism.

    I won’t (will) even get into NASA and the SOHO satellite imagery.

    Is it a product of the government? Or is it really happening? They say that this is how it will happen.

    I link to this, a minimum example of what is going on.

    How many of you have been watching, as one after the other NASA SOHO images show massive spheres and smaller ships around the sun for 2 years now?

    Either we are not alone, or there is a major government conspiracy in full force.

    Watch this NASA imagery,make sure you click the highest HD possible, and tell me what you think (please watch it all the way through):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4I5XD1TCpE&feature=related

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    • Col. Potter - M.A.S.H 4077th
      Col. Potter - M.A.S.H 4077th

      Jeezus H. Christ on a cracker.
      Quit huffin them mothballs son.

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      • Whaler31

        You didn’t watch the link.

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        • Po Pimp

          No, we’re all scared shitless that someone that believes in this kind of crap would be trusted with navigating supertankers full of Arabian Light crude oil.

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  68. Say No to the NWO
    Say No to the NWO

    wow…its like Red Dawn and Fly is Patrick Swazye…Wolverines!!!

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  69. Quint

    Market bottoms in mid November post-election given tax issue.

    we bounce in 2 weeks…but only bounce

    where’s the inflation and all those fund managers who said not to buy bonds???

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    • riggedgame

      If you thing buying bonds when ten-year rates are under 1.5% is a good idea, go get some towels and wipe behind your ears.

      Buying bonds now is like buying houses in 2007.

      Bonds are our next bubble.

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      • Quint

        Heard that before.

        PS I already own bonds, and I’m outperforming everyone.

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  70. buylo

    is it time yet to do da dee bo ?

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  71. 401ker

    Sucky day. Wife got laid off today

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  72. Quint

    And we won’t be down 10% on Monday because the computers don’t hold stocks overnight…

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  73. Raise taxes, Cut spending
    Raise taxes, Cut spending

    This is why I am in grandpa stocks. Whatever happen, people will still need to eat, drive their cars, phone their friends etc. You know, when the shaking stops, these companies will be doing what they do, and the gov’t will ensure that there is a monetary system that works well enough so we can pay them.

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    • the boost

      if thats what you have to tell yourself to be able to sleep tonight ,so be it

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  74. Woodshedder at the pool

    Fly, you’ll be alright. There is a disturbance in the force. It wont last forever. Take care of yourself and the family. That will give you some objectivity…best to you blogfather.

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