At the end of 2011, my target for the S&P 500 was 800.
I had my reasons and made a commitment to invest with the idea that 2012 would be devastating for the global economy. I entered 2012 heavily long high beta names and quickly exited them after realizing a quick 20% gain. I chilled, then chilled some more. Instead of chasing, I put 25% of my holdings in TLT under $115 and started a VXX position. But the market wasn’t listening to my warnings. Instead, it ran, then ran some more.
I blew out of my TLT for a break-even to small loss and sold VXX for a bloody loss. The PPT provided me with a precise course of action, guiding me into TZA three times, pinning me to the wall as the market climbed. I sold that too.
The markets ripped daily and I wanted in. I bought the top.
My 20% gains turned into a 3% loss inside of three fucking months. My core beliefs of decay and destruction for the global economy have become my own reality due to hubris, greed and stupidity. I now find myself rooting for something that I despise and deem ridiculous. I know there is no way out, yet rationalize my position supported by fairy tales.
Since I bought the top, I fear selling the bottom. Psychology is a fucked up thing and cuts deep when trading millions of dollars.
You might think I am joking about the prospect of this market dropping 10%+ Monday if nothing is done; but I am not kidding. I haven’t smiled in weeks and find myself clinging onto sanity by a thread. I should be selling, reducing risk into the riskiest weekend the world has ever seen.
This is a mea culpa, an admittance of failure, served cold in the midst of a blazing bear market.If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter