Holy shit I feel like capitulating today. Everything looks terrible, even The Facebook. Stocks are knifing lower, much more than marginal declines in the Dow and SPY. I am getting 5-8% declines in some of my fucking “China-centric” plays. Couple that with the fact that TLT is going to $200, as predicted, I feel incredibly horrible today.
Why do I feel terrible?
Go look at my 2012 predictions.
I’ve been sucked into this shit, likely caused by some chemical imbalance in my brain. The way stocks are trading today, we can fall 200-300 in a single session. We haven’t seen that type of splendor yet; but it’s coming. At the same time, I know when I can’t take it anymore, historically, the market is near a bottom. The PPT hasn’t flashed an OVERSOLD signal all fucking year. It’s just riding the market lower, calmly, with top hat in hand. But today’s trading action might be the tipping point.
I need to hold onto my positions, especially when they begin to melt my fucking face. As you can tell, I am trying to justify holding onto dog-shit.
Fuck the Facebook and fuck Margin Stanley. Fuck the economy, Europe and fuck Obama. I want to see everything burn and never to rebuilt again. I want the market in ashes, even if it wipes out my net worth, which is impossible since 70% of my money is in the bank. I suppose the banks could close and tell me to fish for soup at some government orphanage. Who knows what the market will bring?
One thing is for certain, and I am confident on this point, the market is going to rally when you least expect it. Many will be out of the market, hedged or light. Very few will capture the full move and it will be the biggest one day rally of the year.
Until then, enjoy the never-ending spiral lower.
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Social media stocks are going to zero because soon there will be no internet.
bingo
For fucks sake will they stop releasing economic data today? Every God damn report has been shit. Spread it out you dumb bastards.
They will….there is more tomorrow
There is only one thing that will prevent this market from crashing and we all know what that is. It all comes down to when the FED acts. They will for sure but I originally thought that Bernanke wouldn’t let it fall too far because it would expose that everything he has done so far is BS for the economy and this being an election year, he’d want to give Obama, and himself a chance at another term.
I’m now thinking that he may not want another term because he knows we are royally fucked so the only way he will QE again is when his phone is ringing off the hook from every politician demanding he act.
He will want to shift the blame on the fucktards in Congress and the White House for not getting the fiscal house in order and the only way to do that is to let it crash first.
He knows what’s going on and he’d be stupid to want another term and he’s not stupid.
Bernanke already stated this is his last term as Fed chief. There goes your wonderful thesis.
Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there
Will Rogers
12-12-12
The V.King
MAKE IT A V.KING DAY!
the market is only 10% off its highs — why would the Fed jump in and “save” it now — because the Fed wants to see “new highs”?
The Fed doesn’t want to see the market collapse to 666 like a few years ago — They’re not in the business of making “new highs”. They’re in the business of stopping depressions.
We’re not even close to that point, so I wouldn’t be counting on the Fed to push us to new highs.
The market topped last month, and it is now in the middle of a normal correction. Nothing to get too nervous about. I would think that most folks are still UP for the year.
The Fed doesn’t care about saving the FB ipo. We could easily trade down to SP 1250 and still only be in a very normal correction.
It ain’t the end of the world.
100% agreement, the shit has yet to hit the fan. Election year politics will prevent action until we are compleatly coveverd in feces.
Fly, even though you are getting killed, funniest fucking headline ever. I cant stop laughing
The picture makes it perfect
if I’m down 20 % or more, a big 1-day rally wouldn’t help. I really hope it will be more than 1 day.
At least you didn’t short C yesterday – what a bunch of garbage.
On that note, banks are doing okay, Spain/Italian yeilds are lower. This bad US data will blow over imo.
$FB is down almost as much as $TNA, percentage wise.. Whoa…
C might be a buy here. Smart euro’s might be pulling their money out of Euro banks and putting it into US banks.
Well, I covered lol.
The main problem from my perspective is that we have not yet seen real fear, in spite of this nasty and extended selling stampede we’ve had going this month.
The AAII Bullish level continues to hover well above levels that would indicate fear and capitulation. The NAAIM Survey also shows the professional money continues to be committed to the long side at a level that is higher than what typcially signals a bottom.
If we were to close right here right now, this would be the worst May ever for $RUT. Unfortunately, sentiment levels leave more room for downside action in prices. We’ll have to wait until next week’s readings to see if the sell-off the last 2 days finally gets professionals firmly on the bearish side. Then we can form a bottom.
I had stopped adding to my TNA and UCO positions. I know I’m asking for trouble adding to them ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report but I just might anyway.
+1
typically
A-game!
This market will continue it’s modest decline. Shit’s fucked and yet we have no fear. Traders continue to hold long on hope of bailouts and QE.
When this turns around, perhaps today, it will rally hard as traders try to catch the end of the dip.
The dip buyes have been preaching this for all of May!
Nice call
Must be near a bottom. 90% here are bearish as shit.
I would wager the net worth of all of the poster’s here is a fraction of the money the Fly is currently long.
You are right about that very few will catch the full rally. The only ones that will do are the ones that have held long on the ride down. I don’t get your point then.
Yeah, this action is brutal. Just drip, drip, drip, one percent declines. Every. Single. Day. And now Israel is threatening to bomb Iran again. More good news for the market.
I am not sure if it is the hallucinations from trying to quit drinking or the market but I think I just saw devildog roll down my street in his step dad’s Dodge Viper.
For the last 6 months or so the likes of BHI, SLB, and HAL have mentioned their utilization rates are in decline as rigs move from the gas plays to the oil regions. Ok, I get it that it takes a little time to move your shit, but not 6 – 9 fucking months. Are your crews manually dragging this shit across the country?
You’re moving some pump units and sand. It’s not exactly nuclear waste. And last time I checked, the country had a national interstate system. Use the fucking thing.
Have you ever done a well shutdown?
Obviously , he has not.
I’ve done plenty of rig moves in my day. We could normally finish up a well, break everything down, load the trucks, move ~250 miles, rig up again, and spud the next well in 2.5 days. And this was on shitty backroads in third world countries.
It does not take 6 months to move a God damn rig. Hell you can move a deepwater floater from one side of the world to the other in less time.
When The Fly takes a pounding like this do you think he grabs his ankles or rests his elbows on a counter? What an ass clown ! Yelp I am falling off a Cliff !
Your vaguely disturbing homo-erotic fantasies aside, I think he just writes a post about it and moves on, confident in the knowledge that he’s been here before and prevailed.
Don’t be that guy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYeLrcWFitY
Great video. I have been there before.
Social stocks will be the death of me.
Fly’s old fave, MVIS, has doubled over the past few sessions.
Yelp is a store of value.
Got murdered while i was in Panama…i am also near full capitulation…have lost a huge amount of money this year at this point.
you do know you can sell some on the way down or at least short against the box to somewhat hedge. Taking huge losses in an effort to prove your right, doesn’t make you more of a man.
A one day rally won’t mean fuck all if we go down over 10% before we get it!
You don’t live in Panama, however, so net-net you are break-even.
true…the whole time i was there i kept thinking “thank god i don’t live here”
PWER up over 4% MOTR up over 7%! Fucked up market!
GSVC is nearing NAV after trading at a 100% premium. can we talk about this?
Fly, I love your psychotic ramblings, which are not always psychotic most definately, but really, isn’t this the kind of sell off that will cut your balls off? I mean by that slow and steady, selling that takes months, not days? You’re swinging erratically this last 5 weeks, but rather than a sharp rally there is one additional possibility (and I think we’re seeing it). Other than that, keep pluggin.
Slow and steady keeps Mr. 401k from bailing out of his mutual funds. If he sees a .5% drip each day he doesn’t worry too much. A headline grabbing -3% day will have him rebalancing into bonds lickety-split.
My shorts just got completely demolished on this nonsense rally. Apparently huge GDP misses and bad unemployment numbers + spain crisis and no china stimulus is great, great news. This kind of insane bullishness that’s raped the bears out of nowhere like 5 out of the last 8 sessions is cute but it’s got to stop somewhere. The market needs a new bottom a few percent lower or we’re gonna get this chaos-robo-bullshit until there’s a 1000 point crash in one session when everyone realizes none of the money is real.
Anyone notice the low on UPRO today?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=upro&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
This might explain why PWER is up over 5% today!
Top Buys by Top Brass: President, Power Solutions Hogge’s $161.3K Bet on PWER
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2012/05/31/top-buys-by-top-brass-president-power-solutions-hogges-161-3k-bet-on-pwer/
Who makes the ZIOSK table terminal? Sounds like the natural progression from Open Table to Yelp to doing anything at mealtime to avoid conversation and human interaction. Horseshit!
take that back..gsvc trading at cash levels here.
CLF catches a downgrade
Probably old news by now
http://zolmax.com/bank-of-america-cuts-cliffs-natural-resources-to-neutral-clf/10585/
10 YEAR YIELD AT 1.57
That’s telling you deflation
(duh)
Screw all of you. FB almost rallied my face off today
Fuckbook can really….
learn something new every day 🙂
Reminds me of your favorite article of all times: http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/09/15/release-the-gorillas/
“Dough Roller”..?? wtf?? you mean a Rolling Pin…hysterical