Shares of IBM, CMG, V, MA, AAPL, and a number of others, have done extraordinarily well over the past few years. Even so, picking out a few outperformers doesn’t mean we are in a “bull market” You fuckers are so desperate for a bull market, you’ve become delusional to the point of seeing mirages of grandeur; but, unfortunately, it’s just a big pile of shit. Take a look at the chart of the SPY above. Pray tell me, have we gone anywhere since 2000? That’s 12 fucking years, Jack. A bull market doesn’t cut dicks off every few years. And I am not talking about your garden variety 10% correction either. I am talking dick guillotines, like we saw a number of times since 2000, most notably in 2008.
When you dive lower by 55% in a year, I think it’s fair to declare the fucking bull market dead, no?
Right now we are in a strong trending market. Moreover, this may be the beginning of a long sustainable bull run, one that enriches the baby boomers and bails America out of its debt crisis– but I doubt it. Why am I so cynical? For one, the fundamentals are far different today than back in 1992, when the last bull market started–lasting until 2000. Nevertheless, it is my job to give the market the benefit of the doubt, so I will do that.
If your first investment was made in 2009, then you are enjoying a bull market. Happy? For everyone else, we’re simply getting back lost ground, trying to cherry pick winners and avoid the next collapse, which is surely right around the corner.
How do I know that?
Because that’s what we fucking do. Boom and bust, the vicious cycle that remains constant.
when everyone is convinced it is a bull market, it will be too late..
onto DOW 15000 and then 17000…good times are here..be positive
Okay, see that statement right there proves to me that you do not believe we are in a bull market.
Bull markets don’t give a shit about whether people are aware of its existence or not. And it doesn’t stop going up after a few years. It lasts for a decade + and everyone knows it and everyone profits from it.
What you just described, unknowingly, is a boom and bust vicious cycle.
I think you meant vicious circle.
This’n here’s a Vicious Cycle.
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that;s what I wrote!
Not right above my comment…
What you just described, unknowingly, is a boom and bust vicious cycle.
A-game!
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1450 then WHAP!
Very astute observations, Senor Tropicana. We are neither in a bull nor a bear market, but a “market that cuts dicks off every few years” a boom and bust cycle market.
My own guess is that this market will indeed enrich the baby boomers and bail America out of its debt crisis– or give that illusion–but only for a few years. I expect it will be all over by some time in 2015 or so.
These rides are fairly short. May as well enjoy them while they last.
I printed this one out and put in on my wall
The market is almost at all time highs and Its not a bull market. Why dont you short AAPL like Blier.
The market is where it was in 2000. It is not a bull market and why do I have to short AAPL?
The absurdity and redundancy of your comments make me pity your children or anyone remotely related to you.
I wish you would do random banning. You know just to keep your edge.
2012 is the year of “The Fly” aka the last year of Earth aka the year of great generosity.
Yep. The fundamentals are much different now. Short term rates will be near zero for the next two years, the ten-year bond will be kept below 3% while quality stocks are yielding 5% plus, and the Fed is pumping up the markets.
Corporations are making the most money ever, and have cash positions the highest ever.
There is no place to go but into stocks.
The term rigged-game is apropos.
it’s a honey badger market.
Vicious cycle schmicious cycle , I’m buying more aapl. News of a new product coming soon, the split beeper.
Are we in a bull market? Of course not…
But AAPL has gone vertical. Not parabolic, but vertical!
If you had a million dollars and you had to go to jail for five years and you couldnt get out. What would you prefer? Long SPY or Short SPY. Your answer tells me where we are.
I’d bet on SHORT SPY
It’s a bear cycle, but with intermittant bulls screwing people like Timmah (Q:how do you make a small fortune? A: Start with a big one!) at every turn, which makes for amusing fare.
In the mean time, Huey’s on the horizon, and the belong to one Benjamin (“The”) Bernank.
Watch out, Greek bottle throwing fuckers.
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“they belong”
A-game!
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The only bull market, admittedly, has been in precious metals.
Which indicates we’re in a bear market, ironically.
When did the last PM bull end? When the last stcok bull started.
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Maybe the algos have shortened the timeframes, 8yr bulls expired now in months
Mayan Calander Time Accleration! DUH
so long as the dow is under 14k,were nowhere. still a secular bear market.
Even if we were 14k Dow, I would not say bull market. It’s the duration of the bullish trend, not so much the actual price.
You need both price and duration to say “We are in a bull market.”
But you can make money in any market, so it doesn’t really matter, does it?
maybe for perception purposes,going back up and over 14k would do a lot to the perception that the world,in fact, is not coming to and end, but rather lifting ourselves out of the perceptual rut of being under said 14k. then guys like paulson can be interviewed by dolts like andrew ross sorkin, saying that tarp and bailouts worked, because were back above the perceived line in sand,where we broke down from.
Did I click on SlopeOfHope on accident?
When we breakout in the upper right corner of that chart, will you admit it is a bullmarket?
When the Dow marches to 20,000 over the next few years we will all forget about the dick chopping that took place.
Bullish/String
You are missing the point here. I am not saying we’re doomed for a bear market. Instead, I am pointing out that this market has been grueling and hard. Sure, recently, it’s been great. But this is not a bull market.
Bull markets go up, unabated, without dick guillotines.
I guess it doesn’t matter what we call it. Bull market, Unicorn Market, Leprechan Market… its heading for new highs regardless, with or without our dicks.
it is not.
The Dow is also being propped by massive inflationary pressure via money supply (which is why both PM and stocks are rising simultaneously).
Very interesting times – companies tightened their ass mouths, strengthened balance sheets, and can borrow almost for free = better margins. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, USD being devalued by the Bernanke, economy is a false start, but trying, election year requires strong economy so The Bernanke will certainly keep things moving.
Truly fascinated times to be honest. It’s a battle between organic deflationary pressures, and massive gov’t and CB inflationary pressure. It’s anyone’s guess when it will stop – but at some point, a major market will default and that’ll be another roll of the dice.
For now, Le Mouche provides constant scathing entertainment and I’m glad the fortunate god complexor posts as he does.
GLTA – currently strangling SPY with wreckless abandon.
I do think we are in a massive economic shift what we see in Greece will happen in the USA. NO country can export 90% its industry offshore. Jan/feb. is usally a good month for equities.
As for the EURO that was the end of each of those countries they became 1 nation.
Sell everything. Most financials have turned lower, much of the NDX 100 is lower to unbchanged, and AAPL is holding this market up like Carmelo Anthony’s hot air.
My dear Dr. Fly,
I guess I have caused this latest blog of yours after our little discussion last night, I apologise if I made you lose some sleep over it, but I respectfully disagree for some of your views.
As all market participants aware – your personal bias is always based on some specific timeline, which for whatever reason you prefer to look at, but it is YOUR timeline.
Why should I look at the market from 2000? Why not from 1989, when I’ve started? Why not look at it from 2009, when many I know started?
The biggest problem we have in today’s market: way more noise about economics, politics and geo-politics than it has been in the years prior to 2008 crises, so many get confused, lost or frustrated by news driven market action.
Nobody can say if we are in the bull or bear with certainty, but if you do not have a firm conviction I cannot imagine making it big, so I prefer to take the risk of calling this market a bull, notwithstanding the fact that there is a high probability for a massive black swan event right now. If we didn’t have a problem with Iran looming, I would feel much more comfortable, unfortunately I believe something will happen in the next few weeks or months which will affect world economics and politics dramatically, and it will start on the Middle East.
Only time will tell with certainty if we were in the bull market today.
Happy trading,
Mr.P
10 years is appropriate and realistic. You are simply overfitting to support your argument.
How can you sit there and say all was well when the S&P was at 666 in 2009?
Come on with the horseshit. You aren’t fooling anyone, especially not me.
I do get your point to some degree.
I can say for sure the USA and Iran will be at war in 2012.
Anyone who thiinks the fall of middle east was caused by chance is a idiot.
So since we will be at war again where would u put your money?? When oil it’s 150 usd
The chatter here tells me too many are too comfortable.
Greece will default, over a weekend so that we can digest it. Interestgly this Monday is a market holiday, and the next one is April 6.
A default will trigger CDS event and QE will follow, and be embraced, as it was not American made, but is needed to protect America. LTRO will not ring fence it.
Italy and Portugal to follow after that.
The only reason I say this is that Greece has been doing what the EU has been asking for: Parliament passing measures, guarantees following elections, yet none of this has satisfied the EU. They dont want to fix this one.