Today’s end of day extravaganza, likely purported by nabobs dressed in turbans, crushed the hopes and prayers of millions of bears worldwide. Prior to the run, they were feeling all mighty, some even a bit pretentious or haughty. Plainly, I was profiting from the decline via VXX and TZA; but 92% of my assets are still in cash, so it was something of an after-thought, frankly. But the incessant pressing of the bears’ heads inside the panini press is almost too painful to watch. Day in and day out, they come to play, only to be beaned in the face and cock by 105mph, Nolan Ryan style, fastballs.
When irrational things occur in stocks and markets, frustrated participants tend to chalk it up to “idiocy”, declaring the markets to be devoid of reason. For a while, I fell into the trap of casting aspersions, lamenting over losing positions and hating the people who bet against me. But as time went on and I stopped dragging my knuckles on the ground, I came to realize markets are both genius and stupid. They are filled with the biggest idiots the world has ever known, as well as the sharpest minds. The markets cannot be stupid, ever, since it is the collective brain-trust of the entire world.
Granted, from time to time, a situation like ENER presents itself, where idiot bulls bid soon to be bankrupt companies up to the exosphere, only to, ironically, bankrupt themselves in the process. But for the most part, markets ebb and flow, moderating through emotions and news flow, eventually arriving to the right price. You just see it as “dumb” because your time frames are all fucked up. You want stocks to drop right now because of your shorts or your inverse ETF’s. But the market doesn’t give a shit about your financial well being and its time frame to produce an accurate price is non-descript.
XYZ may be worth 0; but it can take 10 years for the market to figure it out. That doesn’t make it “dumb”, only methodical.
With regards to this tape, I find myself out of my comfort zone and would rather stay in cash than make egregious errors. Look at FOSL. I had fuckloads of that stock in the $70’s and $80’s. I even declared it to be a prime candidate for the $100 roll a few days ago. Now it’s $120. Fuck me running sideways with an alligator.
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First…
$FOSL; $HAL and $UA were my “the game is rigged” 2011 positions. Hear that one.
With regards to HAL, do you think war against Iran would hype it up? But all this time we hear about cutting the defense spending.
Hal is youe pal, pal.
I’d probably go with $BA over $HAL. But like was admitting, I missed that play, so your guess on Iran play is equally viable.
Be like Scott Blier go short AAPL.
My trade was tight. Short 501.50 with a 505 stop. I was actually 4 point in the money before stopping down 4 points.
Probing for less than 1%…
But I must be a dirt farmer…
Being a resident of Florida, and having witnessed the behavior of numerous alligators many times, I cannot recommend what was put forth in the last sentence of this post.
I’d rather buy AAPL up here than do that. Oh wait, maybe not …
OEW Daily Recap: Yesterdays warning to watch for a break of 1340 was avoided … and now?
“Today the market pulled back 12 points to SPX 1341, and then rallied to 1351 into the close. There now appears to be two possibilites. And, it should not take long to determine which path the market is taking.”
“The first: the rally to SPX 1353 and pullback to 1341 are micro waves of an extending Minute wave v. A rally to SPX 1354 would help [to] confirm.”
“The second: the uptrend has topped on a failure at SPX 1353, and today’s rally is part of the correction. A close under SPX 1344 would help to confirm this scenario.”
“Short term support remains at SPX 1333, 1321 and the 1313 pivot. Overhead resistance remains at the 1363, 1372 and the 1386 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day rising above neutral. Short term OEW charts are still positive.”
Dodged a bullet today … Taking out 1353/1354 will confirm an extended up leg that could last till the end of the week. But as noted, breaking below 1344 will confirm the failed wave and look for the correction to continue. Tomorrow should confirm the direction.
Thanks Tea!
Tea, looking forward to read you tomorrow.
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
Caldero’s charts- http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Only stupid people think they are smarter than the market.
Very well said .. how does DRYS compare to ENER?
Wow, you could have not spoken more directly to me had you been standing right before me. Yeah, I’m coked out with VXX and TZA myself and was feeling mighty smart around 3:30. Went into a meeting only to seeto the VXX had plunged by 7% from its intraday high. Something tells me tomorrow will hurt.
As an aside, what the fuck was that? Was QE3 leaked or something? Moves like that don’t happen unless something big is brewing, no?
“Something tells me tomorrow will hurt.”
You may be right. According to Hirsch Almanac, tomorrow the Dow has a 71.4% probability of trading higher. S&P 76.2%. Interesting stats.
Today, the D had a 42.9% probability, and the S&P 38.1%…FWIW
3:30 = It’s Bernanke Fat fingers at work… 🙂
“with an alligator”???
LOL, where on earth do you come up with this stuff?
I always trade with my alligator mouth and my hummingbird ass.
Your picture doesn’t do you justice.
Robot trading.
Such a bore to watch. One more steep decline and the sheeple will be done with stocks for a decade.
Talk to lots of average Joe’s who are “all in” on their 401K’s long as they try and make up for their 2008 losses.
The rug is about to get pulled once again as oil keeps creeping up. Expecting $5 gas this summer. That should do wonders for the consumer(scarcasm off).
Apple can’t sell their shitty I-Phones when it costs people making minimum wage $80-100 to fill up the tank.
What average Joes? They pulled all their money out in 2011. Read the stats.
Edge… My mother is a social worker and she is appalled by the economic ignorance of “our” people – (plenty of teen mom’s on their iphones waiting for food stamps) Apple products are expensive enough for Cupertino to make a killing and cheap enough for the waitress at Chipotle to save up for. Who needs gas when you take the bus everywhere?
empty vessel makes too much noise
… when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller….myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know…
What did Livermore/Partridge use to determine whether when a bull market or bear market begins and ends?
…experience of many years.. read above.. slowly.. slower… . memorize .. it will help you to succeed ..
by the way Partridge is not Livermore… Livermore never came close ( my take anyway)… Livermore was great, but couldn’t stick to his own rules- you can learn from him, but you don’t want to be him
“But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know…”
I didn’t understand this part.
It’s a quaint way of saying — “your advice is as good as gold.”
But he doesn’t take it.
_________
oh yah… stop selling your fucking positions… this is so unwashed can understand
Tell that to the shareholders of MAS or any number os misses.
real gentlemen don’t trade MAS… you should know Dr…
but seriously any company can miss, if you believe in business – it’s a buying opportunity , if you don’t – why the hell did you own it to begin with 🙂
It’s silly to suggest one should hold onto stocks indefinitely. That strategy has not been effective for the better part of 12 years, save a few runs here and there.
Dr,
with all due respect – you are very wrong…
ABX from 8…:) no problem holding, just one example…
my boss holds GE since 1970 🙂 I see no problem with that – don’t see it as silly
PS: old man Buffet might not agree with you,..
V, MA, AAPL etc etc etc
Pretty easy to say GE from the 70s in hindsight.
You can probably say GE has been in a BEAR market since 2000.
Matter of fact you can say almost all US equity indexes have been in a BEAR market since 2000 (in dollar terms).
I don’t think in dollar terms much, I like my money glittering
what do you think of TRP since 2000.. I started it there,
I started AAPL in 03, how does that look…
We can play this game all night.
The million dollar question is what made old turkey get on the train and what made him get off.
I am still on the train 🙂
old turkey?
By the nature of my day job I have to deal with some wealthy individuals (no, they don’t care much about stocks, their wealth comes form other sources) – none of them look for short term (decades are short term for them) gains, all look for 50-80 years horizons, so did their fathers and grandfathers.
There is a big difference between being good and being great… takes time
Just reading the book now for the first time. I’m starting to think there is more real wisdom in it than many of the more technical books I’ve read.
What book?
Jesse Livermore’s bio. Confessions of a Stock Operator.
______
Partridge
What in the world?
GE from 70’s?
Abx is up because of gold. Gold has been the only consistent investment theme over the past decade.
Don’t get me wrong, a good stock picker can make a living no matter what. But America is no longer up and coming. We’re old and stupid, laden with debt.
The vast majority own index type products. I do not advise anyone to buy and hold.
No fucking way.
hey I am not advising anyone to do anything, except having sex.. it’s good for the body and soul 🙂
Happy Valentine’s !
I am coming to the conclusion that for a numbnut like me who does not have what it takes to be a good opportunistic trader, the best option is to follow IBD. When they say uptrend under pressure, lighten up. When they say market in correction, bale. When they say follow through day, jump on it quickly. In 2011, a disciplined IBD trader would have been chopped up several times, but would have caught the lion’s share of the major run ups and made a decent overall return.
The market can’t go down as long as Linsanity continues
Well said.
“The first: the rally to SPX 1353 and pullback to 1341 are micro waves of an extending Minute wave v. A rally to SPX 1354 would help [to] confirm.”
SPX futes @ 1355 … Thnx Tony!
It’s really amazing all the bullshit that comes out.
Just learn how to read this and relax a little if you have more than a 2 week time frame.
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126
Currently, the these tea leaves say 85% cash 15% short.
APPL: I rode AOL up and I rode that bitch of a whore back down when it hit 500b market cap and the merger was announced. I am going all in on appl short soon. IMO, many were looking at the magic 500 share price to short but were a bit off. I think the magic number is 500b market cap, or 535 or so. Hopefully that will hit when Ipad 3 is announced and Flys downturn predictions come in play. Shorting APPL is stupid but how many companies are at that market cap and what is the top? i bet 500B again.
And tonight i wish a special fuck off to my broker from 1997 at Olde who I hope is reading this. Anyone remember that shithole? He strongly advised against my appl purchase when SJ came back opting for his house stock HTCH. Was I lucky? Yes. But fuck him anyway. Good luck selling Empire carpets.
588-2300…
ha ha ha ha
The same collective brain trust that created the mess?…Unfortunately financial markets are no longer the efficient vehicles they once were. To much intervention. Globalization amplifies thise issues.
Too
I would say that holding positions for a protracted time frame depends on the company and the overall objectives of the purchaser. I for one do not want to sit on a negative position for 10+ years. I may as well just listen to Buffett and buy an index fund and add yearly for the rest of my life. Where’s the fun in that?