THANKSGIVING DAY DINNER IS CANCELED

Dear Sir,

I regrettably inform you that  your dinner invitation to Le Casa del Fly has been revoked.  There will be no turkey legs served at the great manor on Thursday. Instead, we shall dine on hotdogs and sauerkraut, preparing for the troubling days and weeks ahead.

I hope you understand this to be a slight against your personhood. True enough, I never liked you much anyway. You drink too much wine and your breath smells of a sheep ass.

Good Day,

Fly

I have no one to blame but myself, for being so naive as to believe Europe would fix their problems. I’ve always contended this was a problem that couldn’t be fixed. It’s too big and there is no political will. Now you have psychopath lunatics, like Cramer, sounding alarms, exclaiming total losses in EZ will total $10 fucking trillion.

Pardon the melancholy tone. Regrettably, I wasn’t all in VRUS calls like many of you. However, instead, I am long all of the shit that is going lower. I am long this shit with great certitude that it will kill me. I could very easily assuage my pain by liquidating down here and join the circus to become a fucking “cannon clown.” Or, I can extend my torture by waiting for the ultimate bag of shit to drop on my head. Right now only small bags of shit are dropping on me.

Shares of GS, MS and JEF are the only tells for this market. The CNBC folks are relishing in this “debt bomb” situation we find ourselves in. They chuckle and laugh at the plights of investors while declaring “net short positions.” They are rather comfortable in their smugness, clamoring for the EU to fall apart–drinking from the mugs of angst.

Our President is one giant dick-sucker, more concerned with taking trips to pineapple country than dealing with the fucktards inside of the super committee. In summary, I hate all of you, as well as inanimate objects, such as silver coins, computers and televisions.

Taking into consideration how tenuous markets have been thanks to the European crisis, it is even more unbelievable that our elected officials could not come to a consensus to cut spending over a decade. None of them deserve to be re-elected. I am making it a stated goal of mine to vote against all incumbents–republican and democrat. These bastards aren’t responsible stewards of this country. They are nothing more than whores, begging people for money to fund their re-elections.

With regards to this mornings tape: I cannot believe GILD paid so much for VRUS. They are out of their fucking minds.  Everything else is getting the broken elevator treatment. However, let me be emphatic about something right now: you bears are well deserving of a giant cock-smack to the face. I’ve perused the comments section of iBankCoin this morning and nearly vomited on my $4,000 laptop.  Shame on you people for not learning from history. You should know by now, when the DEVILDOGS of the world are out and about declaring winship, mobile de-cocking guillotines aren’t too far behind. How many times does Ben Bernanke have to circumcise you to get a little humility out of you?

Back to reality. TLT is north of $120. The deflation trade is back in vogue, as people “Do the Hugh” into Thanksgiving. This is not what I expected to happen. Then again, betting on inflation versus deflation is pretty much a coin toss these days. People don’t know what the fuck is going on. But I can tell you one damned thing for sure: governments don’t give a fuck about your paper currencies. The whole flight out of gold and silver, as harrowing as it is, will be a temporary phenomenon.

Botton line: your luck is soon to expire. Go drink a hot cup of Early Grey, come back to iBankCoin, and apologize for your behavior. Failure to do so will result in the removal of your mustaches, via my mustache removing drones.

On Monday our congressional “super committee” will announce they are fucking idiots and cannot operate a government. Their task was to cut spending over a 10 year period in order to avoid being “the next Greece.” We aren’t in danger of becoming “the next Greece” until we have Japanese style debt/GDP numbers, in my opinion. Nonetheless, their failure to cut waste in government spending is just one more reason for you to stockpile guns and dry food.

Raising taxes in order to finance more government corruption is nonsensical. The people who tell you “rich people are getting a free ride” should fuck themselves. Last I checked, my quarterly estimated tax payments are more than most of those assholes annual salaries.

Moving on.

Europe is the joke that keeps delivering punchlines, accentuated by whimsical rim-shots. It befuddles me how this topic keeps dragging on. A few weeks ago it seemed the EFSF was the saving grace for all of the malcontents in Europe. Then Italian and Spanish yields blew out, causing alarm amongst those with short fuses. Remember, the ECB is interested in making money, not just saving their asses. It makes a lot of sense to allow Italian and Spanish bonds trade lower, in order to buy them up on the cheap. The problem with this strategy is the notion of contagion. People think this is getting out of control and have begun taking aim at France, due to French exposure to Italy. As a matter of fact, bonds yields across Europe, sans Germany, have been rising.

The ECB needs to decide on a definitive course of action. Either they unify under one banner and issue EU bonds or dissolve the partnership. The German leader, Merkel, seems only interested in her political viability and might just tell everyone to fuck themselves. Should this happen, the stock market will fall by more than 10% in a single session. If you were around for the “Asian Contagion” back in 1997, this will make that look like a calm tape.

The worst case scenario is so frightening, I try to avoid thinking about it. I have a bad feeling something terrible is about to happen and I am ill prepared to deal with it. I was very much prepared for this eventuality 3-4 weeks ago, but was shaken out of my bear trade with that unfuckingbelievable 1,200 point rally. With my recent luck, I will throw that trade on again and the Germans will decide to comply and fuck me again.

This truly is an untenable situation and I wish this shit would conclude already.

This essay written by George Orwell should be read and absorbed by all. It holds the secrets of life, especially with regards to the art of proper tea making.

If you look up ‘tea’ in the first cookery book that comes to hand you will probably find that it is unmentioned; or at most you will find a few lines of sketchy instructions which give no ruling on several of the most important points.

This is curious, not only because tea is one of the main stays of civilization in this country, as well as in Eire, Australia and New Zealand, but because the best manner of making it is the subject of violent disputes.

When I look through my own recipe for the perfect cup of tea, I find no fewer than eleven outstanding points. On perhaps two of them there would be pretty general agreement, but at least four others are acutely controversial. Here are my own eleven rules, every one of which I regard as golden:

First of all, one should use Indian or Ceylonese tea. China tea has virtues which are not to be despised nowadays — it is economical, and one can drink it without milk — but there is not much stimulation in it. One does not feel wiser, braver or more optimistic after drinking it. Anyone who has used that comforting phrase ‘a nice cup of tea’ invariably means Indian tea.

Secondly, tea should be made in small quantities — that is, in a teapot. Tea out of an urn is always tasteless, while army tea, made in a cauldron, tastes of grease and whitewash. The teapot should be made of china or earthenware. Silver or Britanniaware teapots produce inferior tea and enamel pots are worse; though curiously enough a pewter teapot (a rarity nowadays) is not so bad.

Thirdly, the pot should be warmed beforehand. This is better done by placing it on the hob than by the usual method of swilling it out with hot water.

Fourthly, the tea should be strong. For a pot holding a quart, if you are going to fill it nearly to the brim, six heaped teaspoons would be about right. In a time of rationing, this is not an idea that can be realized on every day of the week, but I maintain that one strong cup of tea is better than twenty weak ones. All true tea lovers not only like their tea strong, but like it a little stronger with each year that passes — a fact which is recognized in the extra ration issued to old-age pensioners.

Fifthly, the tea should be put straight into the pot. No strainers, muslin bags or other devices to imprison the tea. In some countries teapots are fitted with little dangling baskets under the spout to catch the stray leaves, which are supposed to be harmful. Actually one can swallow tea-leaves in considerable quantities without ill effect, and if the tea is not loose in the pot it never infuses properly.

Sixthly, one should take the teapot to the kettle and not the other way about. The water should be actually boiling at the moment of impact, which means that one should keep it on the flame while one pours. Some people add that one should only use water that has been freshly brought to the boil, but I have never noticed that it makes any difference.

Seventhly, after making the tea, one should stir it, or better, give the pot a good shake, afterwards allowing the leaves to settle.

Eighthly, one should drink out of a good breakfast cup — that is, the cylindrical type of cup, not the flat, shallow type. The breakfast cup holds more, and with the other kind one’s tea is always half cold before one has well started on it.

Ninthly, one should pour the cream off the milk before using it for tea. Milk that is too creamy always gives tea a sickly taste.

Tenthly, one should pour tea into the cup first. This is one of the most controversial points of all; indeed in every family in Britain there are probably two schools of thought on the subject. The milk-first school can bring forward some fairly strong arguments, but I maintain that my own argument is unanswerable. This is that, by putting the tea in first and stirring as one pours, one can exactly regulate the amount of milk whereas one is liable to put in too much milk if one does it the other way round.

Lastly, tea — unless one is drinking it in the Russian style — should be drunk without sugar. I know very well that I am in a minority here. But still, how can you call yourself a true tealover if you destroy the flavour of your tea by putting sugar in it? It would be equally reasonable to put in pepper or salt. Tea is meant to be bitter, just as beer is meant to be bitter. If you sweeten it, you are no longer tasting the tea, you are merely tasting the sugar; you could make a very similar drink by dissolving sugar in plain hot water.

Some people would answer that they don’t like tea in itself, that they only drink it in order to be warmed and stimulated, and they need sugar to take the taste away. To those misguided people I would say: Try drinking tea without sugar for, say, a fortnight and it is very unlikely that you will ever want to ruin your tea by sweetening it again.

These are not the only controversial points to arise in connexion with tea drinking, but they are sufficient to show how subtilized the whole business has become. There is also the mysterious social etiquette surrounding the teapot (why is it considered vulgar to drink out of your saucer, for instance?) and much might be written about the subsidiary uses of tealeaves, such as telling fortunes, predicting the arrival of visitors, feeding rabbits, healing burns and sweeping the carpet. It is worth paying attention to such details as warming the pot and using water that is really boiling, so as to make quite sure of wringing out of one’s ration the twenty good, strong cups of that two ounces, properly handled, ought to represent.

I can’t remember being so mad at the market, as I am now. I haven’t been ignoring iBankCoin today. Instead, I left the office in favor of seething and snarking at people in the streets.

I’m not interested in rehashing the bearish porn-shit that you’ve been seeing, hearing and reading all day. Fuck those people. Instead, I wanted to inform you that Trader Joe’s has the best 1,000 day old gouda cheese in existence. I strongly suggest getting on your organic bicycle to buy some. Pair it with a nice Cab Franc. Be sure to make sure it is a 92+ rated wine, else you are simply drinking shit.

Sometimes it’s important to remember life exists outside of the stock market. Try to enjoy it.

I’ve been in this business for a long time. My career has been riddled with one stock market calamity after another. I have never seen pessimism like I am seeing today. This is, by far, the most doom and gloom environment since I’ve been managing money, even worse than 2008. The price action is not nearly as bad as 2008, but the sentiment is.

This morning Cramer and Faber all but guaranteed the EFSF would not be used to bail out Europe and that in no way would it be leveraged. Moreover, Cramer said we need to go back to the September lows and that Europe was going to collapse and nationalize all of its banks. Even worse, he suggested they would crush bond holders of bank debt too. David Faber chimed in and said Greece was on the verge of an unorganized default of more than $500 billion in debt.

As I watched this fucking horseshit, I was reminded of getting shaken out of my VXX position a few weeks ago, thanks to the cocksuckers on CNBC (the same network that is now calling for collapse) sucking the dicks of the Europeans–promoting the EFSF as a vehicle that could save the planet. Let me make this clear: CNBC said two weeks ago the EFSF was being levered to $1.4 trillion and said we were off to the races. Now they are saying the opposite.

Let me make a cogent point to all of you: I am not upset at CNBC for giving me bad advice. I don’t accept financial advice from anyone, so it’s a moot point. Clearly, this is a network that cannot be trusted. They lack integrity and seem only interested in goosing viewership through sensationalistic stories to support their ad revenue. It’s no surprise that decent people like Dylan Ratigan, Eric “the oil barrel” Bolling and Erin Burnett left for other pastures.

Look, this is an incredibly hard tape. My mood swings are at an all-time high and I am driving my wife crazy. Whenever the market goes against my positions I threaten to quit the business and live out the rest of my life at Puma Punku. I don’t give a shit about a seven figure income and talking to important people about the market. Those people can go fuck themselves. The minute the market starts to bore me, I am quitting. I will wire client funds back and close this shit down for good.

The way I see it, I am too young to be so upset over things that I have no control over. The markets are blatantly manipulated, helped by nefarious people in the media like CNBC. My true passion is to build great financial products, like The PPT. I have a thousand ideas swirling around in my head for future products, one of which is going to be launched soon. It’s a new website and you will love it.

At any rate, I’ve turned off my monitor and have opted to just roll with the punches, betting that Cramer and Faber have it wrong again.

(note: this post was going to be posted inside PPT blog. However, considering how bad today was, I felt everyone could use a little information)

The PPT is not spitting out anything too resounding, but its definitely supporting an oversold environment. Stocks like ADBE, DIOD, YUM, DSW, BIDU, CMG, amongst over 100 others, are being flagged as OVERSOLD on our 12 month algorithms, accuracy north of 70%.

Some notable oversold ETF’s are: DBP, GLTR, CORN and DBS.

If you are using the OVERSOLD algos and expect instant profits, you are using them wrong.

Look at DBP, for example. It was flagged OS yesterday and dropped 3%+ today. But looking at the holding periods. Over 1 day, accuracy is slightly over 50% for a 0.24% avg return. If you bought and held for 5 days, based on PPT OS scores, accuracy is around 75% for an avg return of 2.6%. Over a 10 day period, the accuracy reigns supreme at 92% for an avg return of 5%. With DBS, The PPT has it OVERSOLD on all algorithms, 3,6,12 and historical with flawless accuracy.

However, like a baseball player on a 40 game hitting streak, eventually, everyone gets a turn at losing–even PPT.

DRV, 3x short real estate ETF, is OVERBOUGHT right now, indicating a sell for the fucktarded ETF. It’s overheated.

Here is the track record for DRV:

On 3 mo Algo:
Just 50% accuracy, with only 2 signals.

On 6 mo Algo:
Down 75% of time on 4 signals, avg loss of 7% over 7 days.

On 12 mo Algo:
Down 82% of time on 11 signals, avg loss of 10.6% over 5 days.

On historical Algo:
Down 74% of time on 23 signals, avg loss of 5.3% over 5 days.

This is a very reliable trade, in my opinion. The other side of the DRV wrecking ball is DRN. Incidentally, it is NOT OVERSOLD just yet, highlighting the complexities of the retarded nature of 3x ETF’s. Right now the tech score is 1.79. It needs to be 1.17 or lower to be OVERSOLD. The accuracy is nothing short of sublime.

On 12 mo Algo:
Up 93% of the time over 1 day on 14 signals for an avg gain of 3.85%.

It’s worth noting, many of the big ETF’s are not OS or OB. Despite today’s sharp sell off, we could see more downside before we bounce. This of course coincides nicely with the deadline to pass some sort of budget in Congress at midnight, on this coming Monday.

Bottom line: my computer brain is suggesting to avoid adding to shorts and start covering them. The dip buying bonanza is very close to ripping heads off again. My best guess, we get a fierce rally within 5 business days.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ev-h4F-nZQg

I’m sick of running. The whole year I’ve been dodging bullets, on the short and long side. I’ve been warning myself for months that this market is going lower. I’ve said it here on numerous occasions that an S&P level of 700 was plausible in a recessionary environment. The crisis in Europe has me fatigued to the point of capitulation. How long am I supposed to deal with this fucking bullshit? It’s the same story over and over again.

I hope the fuckers from JEF, MS and GS burn in hell. I’d like nothing more than to read the morning paper and see their share prices at zero. Misery loves company and right now I am overflowing with it. As fate would have it, the two places that I felt were immune to Europe, gold and refiners, are the biggest losers. Thank the devil I sold out of DK yesterday; but I still own some WNR. Silver is down a staggering 7% today. That is nothing short of a calamity. These things happen when markets are in disarray.

My intra-day losses are approaching 4% now. This is clearly a deeply disturbing day for me. I’ve worked real hard, fighting tooth and nail, to avoid getting fucked this year. I’ve been playing defense, keenly avoiding one blow up after another. Remember, I sold 90% of my WNR position north of $17. But now I feel a certain sense of finality with this move lower. It’s different.

Prior to the inane 1,200 point melt up that fucked me in VXX, TLT and short EXH, I had a very cogent strategy. It was based around the idea that Europe could not fix their problem and US treasuries would offer safe haven. As you can see, I was right. But being right doesn’t mean dick. If you’re not making money on your ideas, you’re wasting your time. So I don’t think about it.

Like many others, I too was shaken out of my bearish positions, thinking the Europeans were back in control. Sadly, it was just another dickfaced lie, purported by fancy men in tight pants. There is no bailout. It’s all a fucking rouse and I was suckered into a false sense of optimism. Words cannot describe how angry I am at myself right now, for being exposed and vulnerable to market forces.

I added to my USG position.