As you readily know by now, “The Fly” sold out of his gold and silver weeks ago, right near the highs (that’s how I roll). I took a small float on EXK last week, hoping it would appreciate with the same gusto it has in the past. But it was not meant to be, so I sold it for a quick profit.
While there are numerous reasons to be long gold and silver, there is just one to sell. Unfortunately for those of you stuck inside of this n00b box, it is the dominant force dictating price now. The flight for liquidity continues and so many of you ham and eggers are doing “The Ron Paul”. Much to your chagrin, you now find yourselves entirely fucked inside of these junior miner hell holes. That is not to say you’d be better suited in DECK or LULU. Howsoever, it is rather fitting that those of you who take pride in “being safe” are the most exposed to the harsh elements of the market. A storm is brewing and no one is safe.
I intend to buy EXK, AG and RGLD when prices fall precipitously from here. This is a 180 reversal from my prior position. It must be said and I will be the first to say it, precious metals no longer enjoy the protection of being a “defensive asset.” It is being used by all of you fucktards to apply risk to portfolios.
The gig is up and your day of reckoning awaits.
NOTE: The new Batman trailer is out. As usual, it looks awesome.
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JIG
Someone is a bit tiffy that I’ve been shitting on his mukluk boots in the PPT.
So sorry.
And wrong twice now!
š
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You can spin it however you like. After all, you reside in Kentucky. However, the numbers do not lie.
http://ibankcoin.com/news/2011/12/22/abysmal-year-to-date-performance-data-of-gold-and-silver-stocks/
Treu, I’m not lucky enough to live in Staten Island, but I do notice that many of those stocks have positive returns next to them.
Ooop!
Those are my stocks!
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I am not saying anything negative about your stock picking prowess. I am pointing to the prevailing downslide in the majority of the gold and silver stocks.
Even in great bull years a third of them are in the negative.
They have the shittiest management (for the most part) of almost any sector.
What did the POG do this year?
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Pog?
“Price of Gold” = POG.
As you can see, the title of this post makes reference to the equities themselves, not the raw commodity.
I should point out that Gold Miner Sentiment as measured by sentimenttrader.com is as low as is measurably possible right now — close to zero. After a year of underperformance, gold stocks are almost universally hated.
So, as per usual, “The Fly” is posturing as a contrarian while espousing a position (“gold miners suck”) that has already been embraced by the entirety of the market.
Naturally this is true and I never positioned myself as contrarian. Quite the opposite, as I make clear reference to the vast underperformance of these stocks.
AAU is very similar to ATPG is price behavior, i.e. shits all over itself.
now that was funny!
i meant what jake said was funny not the post on top of mine…your nugt is woefully oversold…
Peculiar post.
Post is on fucking point. You must be gnawing on your fortress of gold bars again.
Is this related to the re-hypothecation stuff?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/u-s-exposure-to-europe-unknowns-unknowns/
OK, I’m sure Jake will respond in time. My own response is, the PMs, like any position, are typically s certain percent of one’s portfolio. So, what is your projected downward target for the PMs when you will pull the trigger?
look at TLT
When all your accounts are denominated in USD on the day the market finally collapses, you’ll cry more for the time you spent trading that all went to waste, more than anything. Time cannot be purchased.
Think like a Communitarian. Then fuck like a Communitarian.
haha ..
nothing better than USD when market collapses
Old Turkey, what is it with you and posters who like to use the word “fuck” tonight lol?
fuck if I know
You might have to look that up in certain dictionary flyway. fuck? one word, a thousand meanings. lol,
The market will exist as long as humanity exists, and momentum, trend, and money management will too.
This is what I get for “yellow snow-coning” him, I guess.
Sigh.
_________
Hey Jake,
you can call it golden cone š
I’m long of whiskey and cigarettes …and I don’t even drink or smoke
SD baby!
1 mississippi, 2 mississippi, 1billion mississippi
Forget The Batman trailer.
The new Three Stooges trailer is out.
http://youtu.be/Z4IoUo_ZJkY
However, since my wife thinks they are stupid (not exposed to the intellectual side of life growing up in a rural area of Ohio) I may end up going by myself.
saw that yesterday, lol.
i like it!
a shitload of the dogs of this year look ready to explode here. santa gonna be busy?
year end spiker trade looks like its comin.
Batman trailer looks awesome, even appeals to women !
Got a Batman parody for you:
http://youtu.be/FywMOuMqNuI
.
El primo Bat psyops. The best in the lands. Mr. Bogeyman resides behind every dark corner and wants to destroy wholesome whitebread America, though rest assured — he looks nothing at all like a flappy-assed central banker. Because they’re the ones paying for the propaganda.
seems like a lot can go wrong with the miners – why not GLD or IAU? Plenty of liquidity in both – especially GLD
Charted GLD – looks like back to 140-145 range (bear flag forming now)
Price of gold
Screw gold/silver. I loaded up on BAC in the low $5’s
4.95 holdingā¦ lotto
If oil is going higher what does that mean for WNR?
Soros, Buffet and now Le Fly..
gold will do just fine, thank you very much
After that Fly vs. Gint exchange I’m torn.
Torn between Neil Young’s Heart Of Gold and Jesse Winchester’s version of Bowling Green.
Have a feeling I’ll be humming both throughout the holidays instead of Jingle Bells.
Awesome honesty. No one is safe.
I favor cash for the short term one to five years but at some stage the inflation genie may slay the deflation dragon which is I think a theme from these pages from early years.
My biggest worry is excess industrial capacity in the developed world leading to appalling pricing power leaving less income to service debt leaving higher cost of debt with less interest cover. Can you see where I am going? If you really like a stock that has a significant debt level then come debt rollover time there might be some very attractive equity raisings. Having said that I am underwater on my last attractive opportunity but it is early days.
If inflation does take hold some real estate should be good value as the replacement cost rises. These have had a hammering over the last few years and but you do get to own a share in the underlying asset.
Have a great family Christmas and a prosperous trading New Year
I got out my crayons and here’s what i came up with: http://i1011.photobucket.com/albums/af240/death2000/SPX122211.jpg
I think the SPX needs to convincigly break that July trendline – which is right around 1260.
I’m betting it doesn’t and heads back down to Oct Low support (blue line) around 1215
IMHO, there’s way too much overhang of Euro uncertainty that won’t resolve itself until, well, the Euros resolve it – and that won’t be happening till those folks get back from holiday in a couple weeks.
That would also coincide with this entire year of getting jerked back and forth without a clear direction
I drew the exact same trendline, came up with the same 1260 number, So I bought a bunch of TZA at the close. Now I’m wondering if everyone has done the same thing and I’m on the wrong side of the trade.
It may vasalate up a bit, but what I’m looking for is a break with some volume (conviction) behind it.
If you read the blog which shall not be named yesterday, they had a piece on there from GS desk saying the MMs have been unloading into strength this week. It makes sense to me as the Euro thing just didn’t magically go away when Merkle went to the Gingerbread house
If you look, one of signs of manipulation was pointed out to me. Oil sector in weakness, OIH XOP XLE. Chevron and Exxon outperformed the sector and other names today. And, they are in the Dow…
There is clear selling intraday only to be ‘buoyed’, later. Some are exiting while it’s moved up
I wonder if Boehner was crying when he caved.
I also wonder what extending the lower payroll tax rate had to do with a pipeline.
These bills should be voted on individually, instead of lumped together in an all or nothing fashion. This is how all the wastefull spending comes into existence in the first place.
As for the pipeline, it should be able to stand on it’s own merits.
And that’s ‘its’ for the record.
It should in a rational world where a President who claims he wants job won’t actually veto them away for the sake of his green commie buds.
We do not live in a rational world, however, which is why we have a 2 month “tax cut” instead of one that might last a full year and be worth something to the economy. Instead we got a sound bite and a promise to go through all this shit again in two months.
You should really start paying more attention.
Please …. We should build a pipeline so Canada can send tar sands to some Koch Refinery which will resell it abroad anyway … That’s a GOP jobs bill? A few measly thousand construction jobs for a year or two while the profits flow endlessly into the pockets of a few well connected 1%ers. That would qualify as Boehner’s first jobs bill since taking over as SOTH … LOL
People want gas for their cars. The pipeline would create real jobs and cost savings in fuel supplies.
Right …
> [TransCanada chief executive Russ] Girling said Friday that the 13,000 figure was “one person, one year,” meaning that if the construction jobs lasted two years, the number of people employed in each of the two years would be 6,500. That brings the company’s number closer to the State Department’s; State says the project would create 5,000 to 6,000 construction jobs, a figure that was calculated by its contractor Cardno Entrix.
> By draining Midwestern refineries of cheap Canadian crude into export-oriented refineries in the Gulf Coast, Keystone XL will increase the cost of gas for Americans.
> TransCanadaās 2008 Permit Application states āExisting markets for Canadian heavy crude, principally PADD II [U.S. Midwest], are currently oversupplied, resulting in price discounting for Canadian heavy crude oil. Access to the USGC [U.S. Gulf Coast] via the Keystone XL Pipeline is expected to strengthen Canadian crude oil pricing in [the Midwest] by removing this oversupply. This is expected to increase the price of heavy crude to the equivalent cost of imported crude. The resultant increase in the price of heavy crude is estimated to provide an increase in annual revenue to the Canadian producing industry in 2013 of US $2 billion to US $3.9 billion.ā
> Independent analysis of these figures found this would increase per-gallon prices by 20 cents/gallon in the Midwest.
> According to an independent analysis U.S. farmers, who spent $12.4 billion on fuel in 2009 could see expenses rise to $15 billion or higher in 2012 or 2013 if the pipeline goes through. At least $500 million of the added expense would come from the Canadian market manipulation.
Think for a second … Fly’s WNR play was based on the concept that Midwest refineries were profiting from the crack spread as a result of an overabundance of crude land locked in the Bakken Shale Oil Territories.
Put in a pipeline to La/Tx refineries shipping abroad and losing product will reduce our cost/gallon in the states?
Rethink your theory!
Put on your seat belts, boys and girls, this market is about to take off. Hard.
santa cocaine claus. rudolph the eightball snorting reindeer. yeah… we could rally.
The Ron Paul portfolio, short stocks and long gold and silver miners:
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2011/12/21/the-ron-paul-portfolio/
let’s be diplomatic – everybody is wrong…or even more painful – half right…
as far as Kentucky or Staten Island? Unless you’re living on 62 and Madison, Mayfair, or the Cherche Midi, you’re in fly over country, and it’s all one big ugly mall. Ra!
Magnificent website. A lot of helpful info here. Iām sending it to several buddies ans additionally sharing in delicious. And certainly, thanks in your sweat!