THIS IS MADNESS

I’m carefully looking over my books, dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s. Thanks to perfect, and I mean perfect, timing going long this market, I am now up 10% for the year, or 3%+ today. Just last week I was down 3%. While this may sound normal to some of you, trading junior accounts at E-trade, this is as dumb as a gay giraffe driving an ice cream truck to me.

I am looking at my positions in real time, as this market melts up, and it amazes me. I am not in awe of myself for making back what is rightfully mine. After all, it is my right to have these monies. Instead, I am frozen, unable to do anything.

On one hand, it makes a world of sense to take profits and go to the sidelines. But that seems so simple, doesn’t it? Almost a cliche. IF the jobs numbers are better than expected tomorrow, we may go on a face ripping run for the next month, forget about tomorrow. All of the stocks I bought earlier this week are up 15-30% now. If we rally hard into Thanksgiving, they will be 50-100% winners. That’s how depressed these stocks were. Names like TEX, WNR, CVI, IPGP and CLF have ample upside potential, especially considering all of the amateur short sellers stuck in these stocks. I warned you earlier, the market is taking the path of maximum pain. For short sellers, it doesn’t get much worse than this.

I am telling you these things, not to denigrate your plight or make you feel small. Instead of getting all defensive and shit, like a small bitch, learn from my experiences and take notes. Just last week, I was forced to ban and kill countless readers here on iBC due to substandard behavior exhibited while in my parlour. As you can see now, you were immeasurably wrong, while I was right–yet again. This lesson has been taught on iBC for almost 4 years now and will continue to be taught, as long as I am schooling you dog-fuckers how the world really works.

Word of advice: taking profits is not a bad idea, but shorting ahead of tomorrow’s numbers is madness. Additionally, you should make it a point to demonstrate proper decorum when visiting “The Fly’s” blog, for he is a gentleman amongst gentlemen. Plus, he’ll punch your fucking eyebrows off if you don’t.

UPDATE: I sold out of TNA.

I added to my TCK position based on copper strength. The market is selling off and the bears are dying to burn this fucking house down. My book is flipping between gains and losses in a jarring fashion. I don’t like seeing my intra-day gains and losses so unstable. A lot of the weakness can be directly attributed to the inane comments of Trichet. This man has been wrong his whole life. I am glad to see him go.

If the market starts giving up yesterday’s gains quick, look out below. I am about 30% cash and should be raising cash here. However, I’m a risk taker. That’s how I roll, much to my benefit or detriment. This is high level money management at play here. This year has been dreadful for me. My timing seems to be off by 1 or two days on a consistent basis, yet I am up 7% YTD. For the fourth quarter, it’s important that I stick to a thesis, with conviction, in order to power up my gains. I am sitting on fastballs, ignoring the curves. It’s the bottom of the 7th inning and I need a homerun. Nevertheless, I will not risk too much to accomplish my goals. It’s important that I live to fight another day, especially in arduous times like these.

For now, I am sticking to my long bias and ignoring the cat calls from all of the people I despise, who are looking for carnage immediately. Things have a way of working out for me, as I am blessed by the Gods. A little adversity is good for the mind, as it allows one to put things into perspective. My point of view is straight forward: the people who are clamoring for depression will be off with their timing because they are impatient. When it does finally happen, their accounts will be $00.00 and their dignity stripped.

There is a time and place for everything. Today is not the downside reversal day you’ve been looking for, so move on.

I added to my TCK position.

European markets are running on the same day the ECB kisses Trichet goodbye. With him stepping down, perhaps the new ECB will be led by a more dovish Chairman. At a minimum, him leaving is a huge plus for Europe, based upon his history being a stark raving idiot.

US futures are higher, despite softness in Apple. I like the commodity sector for further upside. And, the silver sector is likely due for a bounce, with the announcement of QE2 in England and a ridiculously oversold condition in silver stocks, namely AG and EXK.

With my money, into extreme strength, I will likely take profits. If we trade soft, I will leave my positions in place. The big risk is having exposure into tomorrow’s unemployment numbers. But, at the same time, the market is already pricing in despair. To be safe, you probably want to reduce exposure, get small, and prepare to enjoy the weekend.

I  looked at my Mac screen for about 5 minutes– thinking of an apropos title for the passing of Steve Jobs. I didn’t want to be too melodramatic, nor corny.  I couldn’t think of anything that fit my mood. Generally, I am detached from loss of life, mainly because it’s part of the experiment. But I really feel a sense of loss with the death of America’s greatest inventor, best CEO and visionary.

It’s unfortunate that he had to go so soon. However, he transformed the world  in the short time he was here and made his mark. Well done Steve.

During a time of mass mediocrity and denigration,  we should all mourn the loss of a great American businessman and icon.

Jobs, 1997

Your mood ring said we’d go down today; but now you know better. You cannot defeat mathematics, as it is all things intertwined with humanity and space. “The Fly” pressed his gains today to the tune of 4.3%, sprearheaded by WNR and TEX. This makes no sense to you, as I am now +7.3% for the year. The constellations seemed to be in your favour, yet when you least expected– you were crushed with an asteroid.

The expiration date on this market rally is tomorrow. Therefore, I will most likely be cashing in on some names, in order to preserve the good name of Le Fly and avoid the unfashionable crowd.

To sum up today’s action, I leave you with a true story, passed along to me from Grandpa Fly, from a time when things were simple and absolute.

(this true story was deleted by the Good Christians of the Mid-West Coalition)

Be on alert, the REITS are being obliterated today, sending DRV through the roof. You’re gonna want to watch this very carefully and shares of GS, MS and BAC. There is a bear raid taking place and they are trying to derail the unstoppable and inevitable 10,000 point rally.

I remain long, without reservation, other than my 30% cash load. I will be watching the insolvent banking sector very carefully, as I gingerly sip on a tall glass of bourbon.

Post market wipe out, I want to reassert my wild eyed claims that there isn’t a better sector than the refiners. They have money coming out from their ears and margins have not given back at all, despite the monstrous drop in crude. The Brent-WTI spread is here to say, at least for another two years. And the mid-continent refineries are the best ways to profit from it.

My favorites are HFC, CVI and of course WNR. Other refiners worth a look: DK and MPC.

It’s my fall back sector, one that I am confident in, despite the fucked up economy.

Today, I bought CVI and TCK, in order to press my bets on the coming 10,000 point rally. After my post, I’ve been adding to both CVI and TCK, bringing my cash position down to 30%. I will not throw anymore money into the flaming barrel of garbage, also known as the market. I will simply have to suffice on 70% long and my small EXH hedge.

In summary, I am long TCK, WNR, GSVC, TNA, CVI, TEX, DECK, IPGP and CLF. You cannot stop Le Fly. You can only hope to contain him.

I bought 15,000 TCK, FTW.

I bought 5,000 CVI.

Disclaimer: If you buy CVI because of this post, Moody’s will downgrade Germany and France tonight. And, you may lose money.