The Great Showdown is Near

That fucking bastard of a hurricane, the DEACON OF DEATH Irene, has radar on my ass and is gunning for NYC now. Remember, I was just in Turks and Caicos and missed her punches by just one day. It was, seemingly, the perfect trade. However, as fate would have it, mother nature has a bone to pick with me, rightfully so. I’ve been a big supporter of natural disasters for many years now, having placed large monetary bets on the sheer destruction of bullshit southern states.

But now she is gunning  for me. What to do?

Well, the good news is, I couldn’t care less about my current living quarters. May she enjoy ripping my house from the foundation and tossing it into the Atlantic. So you know, I’ve already secured dry quarters in central Pennsylvania and will enjoy watching Irene fuck up my house, from the luxury of a very dry and distinguished hotel room.

As this pertains to WNR: BUY, BUY, BUY (No Cramer).

Are you people fucking nuts, selling WNR ahead of a storm that is going to punch NYC in the nose? WOW. This is a refiners wet dream, due to safety of southern refineries, as prices are set to surge. In my estimation, this could be the tipping point for crack spreads, finally forcing asset managers to “get their share” of the billions to be made from fleecing the average shlub at the pump.

Thanks to VHC, GSVC and a benign WNR, I am +1.5% today—putting my year to date gains over 10%.

As per form n-2, GSVC announced investments in Twitter, Groupon and an indirect investment in Zynga, via PJB Fund. In my opinion, this makes GSVC the best way to play the booming private market, hands down. They are pricing a $100 million deal, led by new underwriter, Citigroup—another major upgrade. I realize the market is fucked up here and people don’t know much about GSVC, but this is fantastic news.

Here are GSVC’s current allocations, after investing 82% of capital raised in IPO.

On this news, I am bidding for more shares of GSVC and have executed several orders.

Buffett owns a shitload of insurance, Goldman Sachs and Well Fargo. You need to know that when analyzing the Berkshire investment in Banc of America. If BAC went into full crisis mode, Buffett would have bled out due to his exposure to the aforementioned industries above. So, in many respects, this is a defensive investment for old man Warren. I respect what Warren stands for and can only dream to attain the sort of success he has enjoyed; but I’m not buying BAC because of today’s news.

If anything, the BAC preferred shares look good and worth a buy, if you are into high yielding instruments.

On the plus side, a repeat of 2008 is OFF THE TABLE. I know that might seem like a bold statement; but it really isn’t in the big scheme of things. Banks aren’t supposed to fucking implode. You people have it ingrained in your heads that banks should fail every 3 years. Fucking lunacy. Instead, banks will continue to prod along the bottom, underperforming high growth companies. There is nothing enticing about banks here, with exception to select regionals like SBNY.

Ahead of Jackson Hole tomorrow, I will be sitting on my hands, 70% long, 30% cash. If we dip tomorrow, I will buy more on Monday. If we melt up tomorrow, I will lighten up and raise more cash. At the moment, I am down 0.10%, pretty much a non-event.

Whew, with that Buffett news this morning, I was a bit worried the market would get all crazy and shit and trade up. Thank God we are back to trading “normal,” with German markets flash crashing 5% in minutes and US stocks reversing to the downside, in old school, “fuck you, you’re dead” fashion.

Frankly, I cannot envision myself trading in an environment that doesn’t raise my blood pressure by 50%. This shit keeps me on my toes and is the best!

Sure, my VHC position is spiraling higher, but everything else is getting Clubber Lang’d for no apparent reason other than fickle investors panicking out before “the (Jackson) hole.” Well, this is exactly why my new version of “all in” is 30% cash. I expect the market to correct, following the 2 day bull market that just occurred. Once we go down some more, out of nowhere, we will go up again.

In the meantime, try to sedate yourself between snacks and make sure you’re not on margin, else your accounts will do a flash crash of their own, all the way to $00.00.

This is why it sucks to be a dedicated short seller or someone who “thinks” they know the balance sheets of banks. You have so much working against you, it’s absolutely preposterous that you try to making a living in such a way. The empire always wins, especially when you think it’s readying to collapse.

Gold is dropping again and is now in correction mode, down 10% from the highs. The Buffett for BAC deal means bankruptcy is OFF THE TABLE for BAC. Don’t even bother studying your bear thesis any further. It’s not going to happen with old man Buffett behind the bank. If you are short, cover it and move on. Moreover, if you are short banks, you have a problem today.

Having said that, I’m not interested in buying banks because it’s not my thing. I dancing to a different tune and have an interest to lighten up on rallies.

Bottom line: despite the tepid reaction of the market, today is a game changer. Once we get Jackson Hole behind us, this market will trade differently.

As you can see, the ominous black flag has risen over iBankCoin, via new web design. Expect numerous upgrades in days and weeks to come, including the detonation and destruction of the Peanut Gallery Institute. I’ve had enough of you fuckers. It’s time for you to catch metal spikes to the brain. In replace of the PG, I will launch the iBankCoin blogger network, where you fuckers can blog with dignity and honor. I invite any and all to blog here, when we launch it, for it will offer you instant exposure to our 1 million plus monthly viewers, as opposed to the garbagio on your hidden blog.

Additionally, if you notice, the background changes often with this new design. I will use it to my advantage, indeud.

Any and all questions will be ignored, so don’t bother asking any. Just know and understand, the new site design is as black as my heart and I will no longer offer you safe quarter from the invincible nations of iBankCoin.

“The Fly” is in his race car, made from dynamite sticks, foot firmly pressed down on the gas about to jump over the crevasse, because he thinks he can. There are no limits to what I can accomplish. With big balls and a larger than life mental disposition, there is nothing you fuckers can tell me.

Analysts are the worst investors out there. Everyone knows that, even worse than Doctors. Let’s cut to the fucking chase. You little ass pirates are wannabees. You crave attention from the media, luring them with your provocative market calls. But let’s face facts here, pal: you’re not an esteemed economist from NYU and didn’t call the collapse of the housing bubble or the subsequent market drops in 2008-2009. You are nothing more than fodder for my cannon fire.

The summer winds have shifted once again, this time in favor of those who are not interested in burning it all down. Sincerely, you guys who crave for black holes and collapse can go fuck yourselves, every which way but loose. We’re gonna climb out of this ditch and transform into Optimus Prime and stick a space sword through your helmets.

With 30% cash and year to date gains nearing 9%, I am well positioned for Jackson Hole. By the way, if you are short stocks here, I invite you to “get in the hole.”

You feel the pendulum swinging. I know you do. Did you see gold, silver and treasuries get poleaxed today? I know you did.

Regardless of what Bernanke says, we’re going the fuck higher in September. Write that down. Until then, there will be corrections and some will get tossed out of their positions, but not me. “The Fly” has the conviction of 10 bedrocks, supported by his own ideologies which are opposed to everything you believe in. I take conventional wisdom and throw that shit to the ground (no SNL).

In all seriousness, the tables are turning and extreme upside potential is near, providing bulls take the ball that was just given to them and run with it.

Top picks: DECK (common and calls), WNR, CXO, IPGP, VHC, GSVC

321 crack spreads are sustaining mid $30’s, +450% year to date. Brent-WTI spreads are upward of 28% or $24 per barrel and the price of gasoline has declined, substantially, in recent months. Make no bones about it, this is the golden age for the refiners. It’s too bad the fucking stock prices aren’t reflecting it yet.

The best plays are the ones close to Cushing, OK or Eagleford shale, due to the price divergence between WTI and Brent. Recently, EPD announced they were scrapping plans to build a pipeline from Cushing to Houston, something that went unnoticed by the dicksuckers who manage money. What that means, essentially, is sustainable discounts for WTI, compared to Brent, for at least 2 years.

Thanks to the recent decline in gasoline and widening crack spreads, the refiners should be bought in size, in my opinion. The top mid-continental plays, in my opinion, are WNR, CVI, HFC and DK. As you know, WNR is undergoing some deleveraging here and has disappointed with earnings, thanks to aggressive hedging strategies. However, long term, they are doing the right thing for the company. Plus, they still have an East coast refinery up for sale that may boost share price, upon consummation of a deal.

The bottom line: there is no better industry than fleecing the average Joe of his coin at the pump. Margins are wide and times are good. I will be a buyer of WNR on all dips and will look to start new positions, in other refiners, when the opportunity presents itself.

If we are to continue higher, we must not give up yesterday’s gains. The banks need to hold, led by BAC and GS. And, Italian and Spanish 10 yr yields must hold under 5%. That’s the obvious. If those things happen, and the economy doesn’t drop off a cliff, commodity and technology related stocks will lead the way higher.

High beta names like DECK, LULU, AMZN, NFLX, BIDU and AAPL should outperform. There are many other high beta names worth buying; however, those are just a few that come to mind.

In the banking sector, I like SBNY here. They do not have the toxic assets that plague the other banks because it’s a new bank. They are taking market share in NY and is a prime takeover candidate. In the semis, I like IPGP, in retail DECK and in oil and gas I prefer CXO and WNR, just to name a few.

But all of this shit will be worth nothing if we can’t crawl out of this faggot box we find ourselves in, no offense to gay guys of course. The up and down nature of this market has people sick to their stomachs. Retail investors have fled from the landscape and now the fucking robots are ruling the roost. Larger than life firms like Blackrock, Fidelity and Pimco dominate this market and can literally make or break your favorite stock.

Why was DECK knifing lower, or any other high quality name, over the past 3 weeks?

Answer: survival.

Hedge funds and money management firms needed to sell non-core names in order to “outperform” the S&P. I know it sounds retarded; but these idiots are THRILLED to be down 10%, providing the SPY is down 12%. The whole name of the game is to beat the pace rabbit, which is the S&P 500. If you really want to fuck with these funds, you take down AAPL. Then you will see panic and despair.

In summary, in true retarded form, the names that clubbed you to death on the way down will be the names that resurrect you on the way back up. These same managers will buy in, when “the coast is clear,” whilst snorting a table full of cocaine off their bloomberg terminals.

There is a hidden monster off corporate balance sheets that is not being discussed yet, even by the most disgusting bears.

Unfunded pension liabilities.

Due to the recent market drop, healthcare and unfunded pensions now stand at around $500 billion, significantly higher than even the 2008 lows. That equates to $1.50 in earnings, for the S&P, next year. Should the market continue lower, there will be serious consequences that will fuck up and destroy a plethora of organizations. Remember, insurance firms are not the only companies that invest in stocks. The big pension plans at GM, F or GE invest billions and have been raped, due to the absence of risk free yield. Since rates are at 0%, pension funds were forced to take on more risk. As a result, they are now albatrosses around the necks of dozens of corporations.

So, that $2 trilly in sideline cash isn’t exactly a net net number, if you know what I mean.

I will highlight some real risk names for potential short sale, whenever the fuck I get in the mood to short.

For now, I spit in the face of S&P and welcome any and all to “GET IN THE HOLE,” ahead the gentleman Ben. Thanks to today’s 5.5% gain, I am now up north of 7% for the year.

NOTE: iBC’s web redesign is pending.

Related: The State of California admits to a $1 trillion pension liability.