Okay, since everyone is espousing caution in September, due to it being “a bad month,” I am tempted to just buy shit. Did these people forget the S&P went up 9% in September of last year? Is there anyone out there bearish on volatility? It’s plainly ridiculous how everyone gets in lockstep with one another. Nevertheless, I am opting to avoid stocks due to my own beliefs. For example: TLT and GLD are too high, people are buying Swiss debt and locking in 1% losses via negative yields, Italian yields are creeping higher and Greece is scheduled for a bailout on 9/7. That’s enough for me.
The pendulum has swung back in favor of the bulls, rightfully so. Most of the pessimism that took hold of the market in early August was purported by professional short sellers, only interested in breaking the market.
Going into September, lots of momentum stocks are worth a look. For example, NFLX has been up 8 of the last 9 Septembers. And, CRM, NKE, CME do extraordinarily well in September. So it’s not all bad, asshats.
Bottom line: I am 40% in, with a TZA call option hedge in my personal aggressive accounts. I will dive back into this tape when the conditions that I mentioned above abate. Do not forget how bad you sucked three weeks ago. It is entirely possible that this little rally will be short lived. If we are heading back into recession, remember, earnings will be cut by 30% across the board, putting the fair value of the S&P at about 900.
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I gotta know, given Rick Ross blogpaper, does that mean he’s an IBC voyager? Haha, it’s newsworthy, don’t be shy Fly, what’s the deal?
If people are locking in negative yields, doesn’t that set the stage for a monstrous rally? At this point the realest, most imminent risk seems to be the Fins derailing the Greek bailout.
or maybe there is a reason large institutions feel the need to protect their money.
Negative yields isn’t exactly doing a good job of protecting their money.
You think The Bernanke is going to let some stupid country like Finland derail all his efforts from the last 3 years?
Fly, will you scale out of any WNR on its way to 25?
maybe
my thoughts exactly. and i know you care about my thoughts
I’m with you staying on the sidelines here but making decisions to buy any company based on monthly company performance stats over the last 9 years is completely silly, especially in this environment. If you were talking about Blackrock with exposure to the entire market I might agree with you. However, you are not only talking about a company who has been in multiple growth cycles in the last nine years, but one that is speculative, not to mention in a completely fucked up market. I think using historical monthly performance in a very specialized market is ridiculous.
Is this post’s cover art from Escape from the Planet of the Apes? — specifically the scene where the underground druid people are worshipping the atomic bomb?
________
aren’t you long SKF?
they have literally just started throwing money from windows…just like the old days. They want to give this money away, you just have to run out there and grab it.
I’m watching my CM climb today. Will hit $90 by year end.
Trading Nymph must be getting poleaxed
-Stockadamus
if tradingnymph were really a trading nymph, she would have went bankrupt some many months ago.
Trading nymph is the biggest joke I have ever seen. Is she really made the trades she has been hinting at for the last year she would be in a cardboard box. Anyone can read shit and blog like they are trading but I would like to see her balance sheet. I bet she has one hell of a volatile thinkorswim paper money account.
Hey..I..am still here… and listening
I told you I was going to get you bitches. Who has whose spine in their hands now?
remember wat i said. REMEMBER REMEMBER to BUY THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. EVERY1 will be looking ahead to next months GDP reports of course. BUY AWAY TILL THEN. SHORT BONDS more up here.
Mmmm-mmm, man I love getting stiff armed by ERX.
Thankfully I had the good taste to move slowly. Shorting more, coming to a theatre near you.
Fly, I warned u about the VXX position u had. Now I warn u on the TZA call option. Good luck to u, but those calls are gonna get burned, market trounces higher into September and slows down right near bernanke speech.
The SPY even a technical basis (mechanically speaking) is about to magnetize to the 50 day which always causes a break upwards and then the temperature starts to rise fast as computers start the mania for the next couple of days. We have about 2 weeks of momentum coming here
Bill Gross that flip flopping idiot, will again regret his comments yesterday about bonds. He will learn that saying nothing is best and have El-Erian come on and talk to us like we are all slow and retarded explaining things in detail.
Fuck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thinking I was smart and making a quick profit,I sold out of my DECK and CLF yesterday!
is there a place called crystal balls are us.cause i need to trade my old one in.
hey fly,it’s cool to see b.meehan follow you. dont see her much on the tele these days.
she is on every evening on CNBC europe.
one more thing FLY, here is wat the real S&P500 projections look like in a detailed very graphic way. Your just making up the figures up there http://www.investorsfriend.com/S%20and%20P%20500%20index%20valuation.htm
I wish my stocks got valued on operating earnings. It would be great if pesky things like interest payments and taxes didn’t count.
Forget about projections. Projections are always rear view mirror.
If we go into recession, bank on a 30% reduction in EPS. In 2008, we saw a 57% reduction, 2000 -32% and 1990 -24%. I think it’s fair to assume a -30% reduction is in the cards, providing we go into recession.
Average trough PE during recession, over the past 60 years, is 13x. So, take the current $94 in eps projections and slash it by 30%. We get $66.
At $66 in eps with a 13x multiple, what do we get kids?
858.
My 900 number was being generous.
I don’t make shit up.
again ur wrong, because ur taking scenarios in which credit dried up. Those are all situations in which credit dried up and numbers had to be taken off quarterly earnings which caused a temporary discoloration of the numbers. Credit situations are different than fundamental situations. And it amazes me that u speak of a recession as if it’s an actual one time event. A recession is a process. our GDP numbers are receeding right now. Its not this tragic event except from a psychological standpoint if the numbers get into the negative territory. I think ur looking at the glass from the wrong end and just completely under educated. Trading is not the same as economics.
Those aren’t dried up credit projections, but reality. Clearly, you are not a student of the market and do not know your history.
I am not suggesting this comes to fruition. All I am saying is, know your downside.
Having said that, being that you put the non-word “ur” in the same sentence while accusing me of being “under educated”, you’re fucking banned—on principal.
Applaud the banning but…
Principal vs. Principle.
A Game. Bring it.
fuck. I may need to ban myself for that.
ha ha
Where is that 3:1 short fucker, Alf? I got that bitch too.
.
I’m right here … and STILL …
SHORTER … Than Verne Troyer !!!
—
Oh, btw … FU !!!
.
the market is going to move in anticipation of wat BErnanke is going to do in September. If he dissaipoints coupled with bad GDP number this market will panic. If wat he does is not sizeable the market will drift with lower highers and lower lows.
I’m going to bring the pain on bearshitters in September. It’s going to be so awesome I’ve made it a 2-day affair instead of the usual one. Second day will feature an autograph session and other ways to promote my awesomeness.
Plus we’re bringing 2 Live Crew out of retirement for a concert.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnMge9j5SYA
Get your grind on.
With all these power outages, it’s been awhile since I’ve seen the big O on the tube.
And now he’s back to complaining about Congress and his “dig a hole, fill a hole” jobs ideas…yeah, that’s what we need.
First Federal Reserve Audit Reveals Trillions in Secret Bailouts
By Matthew Cardinale, Inter Press Service
29 August 11
“The first-ever audit of the US Federal Reserve has revealed 16 trillion dollars in secret bank bailouts and has raised more questions about the quasi-private agency’s opaque operations.”
16 trillion fuckin dollars! LOL. It’s like a good book, but truth can be stranger than fiction.
forced to change ibankcoin as my home page…as the new site continues to crash/freeze my browser. Have you guys not been hearing this from many users??
What a drag……I can’t read here much now…in that it takes waaay to long to load…and is clunky clunky clunky.
Riser
Please email [email protected] to tell us why you are having issues.
Perhaps has something to do with the Commodore 6400?
Old operating systems seem to have issues with new design.
Don’t tell me gov’t is finally doing something right by blocking AT&T/T-Mobile.
I would like to think it was smart thinking that caused this, but it was probably just the fact that someone didn’t get paid off.
yea, heaven forbid they use the word “monopoly”.
Time to go back and test the lows?