Today the market crashed for me. My second largest position was manhandled, down more than 8%. That would be SHLD. And, my #1 and #4 positions, WNR and CVI, were obliterated. Words cannot describe my frustration. I am not mad, per se. Instead, I am deeply disappointed in my performance. What worse, old man Cramer nailed the refiners trade and I didn’t. The perfect time to sell was heading into VLO earnings. The fact that this trade seemed so obvious, so perfect, is what made it vulnerable to fail.
Due to the high level of leverage in my personal account, I had to trim back on my WNR positions, else risk the entirety of the account into earnings. This is not a decision that I wanted to make, but I needed to protect my assets. Over the past two weeks, my personal account has fallen from $1.3 to around 770k. This is a monumental drop, caused by an idiotic amount of leverage. However, it’s important to keep in mind that it was the same leverage that allowed me to move this account from 100k to 1mill last year.
At the end of the day, I have a lot of work to do.
Because of today’s horrific decline, I was forced to raise a significant amount of cash, selling out of a multitude of positions. Currently, my cash position is 40%+. Frankly, had I listened to The PPT, I would have sold it at $17.27 on 4/27, when it was downgraded to “sell.”
For managed accounts, I am now down for the year, having absconded all of my gains AND MORE. I will know the full extent of my stupidity within an hour or so.
Aside from my personal, I did not sell any WNR. Although I did trim back on CVI a little, the lion share of my refinery positions are intact, going into earnings. One tech name that I held onto is VCLK. As I sit here typing this shit, I am sure the powers of the universe intend to crush the shares of VCLK, just to teach me a lesson in humility. Losses do not discourage me. They really do motivate me to work harder. However, it’s the loss of time that annoys me. I just set myself back 4 months in a little less than a fucking week. To make matters worse, the market hasn’t even corrected.
In order to hedge my personal, I bought some TZA. Taking into account the pervasive move up in the general indices, I am sure it will end up a short term loss.
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Karma for your Rant!
On days like today, I think it’s important for M. Le Fly to put things into perspective.
When M. Le Fly was a youngster, he and his girl friend were about to get serious in a conjugal sense. Prior to getting things started the young lady had a confession to make. “Monsieur, I want you to know that my breasts have only developed to those of a 12 year old.” M. Le Fly, in trying to ease the damsel’s trepidation replied, “Quite all right my lovely, as my WNR is that of a mere infant.” As the groping, touching and tickling progress, the young lady reached into M. Le Fly’s trousers and screamed in horror as she withdrew her hand. She gasped breathlessly, Monsieur, you told me that your WNR was that of a baby. To which M. Le Fly coyly replied, “Me Qui Mon Petite Chou, my WNR is 7lb; 8oz; 19 iinches in length.
LMAO!!! NICE!
Are you still in FORM? Have not seen a sale mention
set myself back 4 months in one week and the market hasnt even corrected . aint that a bitch
I truly admire your honesty. Not too many people owe up to their mistakes. It takes courage my man.
agreed, honesty and rebounding from setbacks is what defines champions. Looking forward to some funny as hell story about getting your ass handed to you from back in the day.
Despite the loss, appreciate your honesty dude. That’s taking it like a man… Good show.
agree..good call bud
fly
the rut.x has had two huge down days.. i would think something else is due to underperfrom for a few days..
one sector that seems to like the fall in oil is the banks. they might even trade up if the dollar rallies.
All my energy stocks have tanked today. And I have a shitload of them. Maybe the world thinks that with Osama dead all kinds of peace will break out in the mid-east. Consequently, oil will get cheap and plentiful. I’m comfortable going against that trade.
News Flash: “Fly Eats Humble Pie!”
FIG! One week does not make a man..$WNR will rip tits off…full positioned, riding to the sun
“I can’t live the buttoned down life like you. I want it all! The terrifying lows, the dizzying highs, the creamy middles! Sure, I might offend a few of the blue-noses with my cocky stride and musky odors – oh, I’ll never be the darling of the so-called ‘City Fathers’ who cluck their tongues, stroke their beards, and talk about what’s to be done with this Homer Simpson?”
That’s gotta hurt, but I know you’ll make it back and more. At least you’ve been down this road before and know how to deal.
Had followed by putting on DAL,AMR, and LCC has hedge to WNR. Forgetting a lesson learned in the beans 37 years ago, I lifted the air leg of the hedge. To self: If hedging DO NOT LIFT A LEG (and if you do, lift the correct one). Tough day but all in all you have “eaten the porridge” publicly which almost no one else is balls enough to do.
I will not sell WNR until I hear the earnings, which I still believe will be good. Dont be 2 hard on yourself FLY, you have made many of us much money; more than likely this thing will bounce higher and you’ll regret you sold any of it, even a small part. At the end of the day earnings DO count.
Hang in there Master Fly, you always have Die Antwoord.
You are still God to me.
Sorry to hear. I feel your pain.
Guess the car full of dynamite is temporarily out of gas?
770K, that’s all?
that’s my personal/aggressive acct. It was an experiment using The PPT. I took the account from 100k to 1mill last year. Long story.
That would be a story we would like to hear. You up 1,000% in one year is beyond impressive.
it’s all blogged
Good show, old chap! Glad to see you own up to the situation. I’m a big believer in that and it has served me well.
Nothing is worse than getting ass-raped when the market is not even 1% down from the top. Is that shit crazy or what?
But here’s the thing…the world is already “correcting”….the US will catch up shortly. They are trying to sneak out the backdoor.
I am getting murdered in FXI, EWZ, and all crude names (especially, my WNR really hurts).
I went long some June USO puts today and bought a first tranche of TZA. I am still net-long up to my eyeballs but getting close to my stop points.
Kudos for The Fly’s honesty, win or lose. 8)
Some of you newbies weren’t around a couple years ago when fly tooks some large lumps as he did this past week. My professor gave me some sage advise in college, he said “Muddy water, let stand, becomes clear.” And that was it. Best advise I got for 100k in tuition.
I don’t recall him ever taking a 50% hit in his personal account. That is a pretty huge drop. I believe this is the worst day in iBC history.
The only “loser” is the guy who spells it “looser”
Fucking hilarious Fly. LOL on that one. In your own way, you showed yourself to be man to stand up and acknowledge the beatdown which is evident with some of the trades you have made recently. You are still the man and I expect I will make bank a lot of coin thanks to you.
better yet “advise” must have been Triangle Tech he attended
ahhh, wait…I have slaughtered the spelling of Loser/ Looser before…but I am not a guy.
ohhh, it’s the WNR guy….nevermind.
Refiners are going to be the big losers as we go forward.
Gas prices are now at the known tipping point. Last time we hit $4.00, demand showed a clear drop. Same thing will happen this time.
Back in 08, the drop in demand and accompanying drop in economic activity triggered the largest recession in world history. This time, there will also be a drop in demand, but because the main issue is now the underlying currency, the price of oil will continue to rise.
With demand dropping, and prices rising, suppliers will be squeezed. They are going to be forced to drop their margins to historic lows. Yes, I see spreads dropping to historic lows this fall. They will stay at historic lows until the dollar is completely worthless.
Ther dollar is near or at its bottom right now, stupid. The Fed;s objective of loose
money was to get the stock market up and corporations solvent.
Those objectives have been achieved. The missing link is CONSUMER BUYING POWER.
If the income of the top 1% was distributed to the 60 million lowest-wage workers,
you could give each of them a $30,000 per year wage hike. THAT would be buying power.
The problem is that the Fed is now in a corner that it cannot get out of. The market has risen on the expectation that QE will never end. And, I don’t believe QE ever will end. If it were to end, you would see a recession worse than 2008.
The “recovery” we have seen over the last 2 years has been a mirage created by easy money. There has been no true demand recovery. The only thing you need to look at to see reality are house prices.
Until housing recovers, there is no real recovery.
And in my opinion, housing never will recover. Thus, you have endless QE and with it, endless inflation in non-core CPI items ie. Food and Energy.
How is it you can spell “mirage” correctly, but not “loser?”
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Very short lived, with most of the money transferred to China via stupid plastic knick-knacks. Dollar is far from done dying. Barely even started IMO.
Go2Mars…..It’s feeling Much Better…ala Python Bring out your Dead.
lol
Yeah, great idea. Let’s take the money away from the smartest, brightest well advanced Americans and give it to the lazy bastards that don’t know the meaning of work.
The 30k per individual would go to cigarettes, 40 ouncers and lottery tickets. You are a genius indeed.
Looser,
Housing doesn’t need to “recover” – it was a in bubble. Wasn’t it?
Correuct, it needs to correct.
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While that was a stupid redistribution idea, I don’t the complaint about 40 ouncers.
sorry to hear that fly… but you know you will bounce back from this… good luck.
The utmost in honesty and integrity spoken here.
Thank you Sir Fly.
I have faith in our leader. Sticking with my WNR. The cheaper it gets the more i like it. Will hold it unless we break and close below 14.10. Summer is coming. Time to take out the old Cadillac conventible and burn some gas. 4 miles per gallon.
Expect that level to come on Thursday.
What does a “looser” mean? A particularly watery bowel movement? A women of looser moral convictions? Do tell.
yes, it means a watery bowel movement.
No, I’m afraid that would be a “loosey.”
________________
VCLK gonna take the edge off for ya – congrats and cheers
LVS ouch!
Are you still in MOTR? Colostomy bags required after earnings tonite.
it will be up tomorrow. not to worry.
sold motr last week.
they had good numbers.
vag man
You’ve got bigger balls than me to put your performance and trades on the table for the world to see. It’s nice to see candor in one’s performance. It’s something I could never do. Trading is a solo venture for me, but I always like to understand the logic of other traders.
OEW Daily Recap:
“After hitting a new bull market high yesterday at SPX 1371. The market had its biggest pullback since the SPX 1295 low in mid-April. Today, after opening relatively flat, the market extended that pullback to the second largest since the uptrend began in mid-March at SPX 1249. The largest uptrend pullback was the 44 point Intermediate wave two low. This pullback is currently 21 points. Short term momentum has hit oversold today, typical of a Minor wave pullback. We should therefore see a Minor wave 2 low shortly. Support for the SPX is now at 1344 and then the 1313/1303 pivots, with resistance at 1358 and then the 1363/1372 pivots.”
I’m looking for a bottom to this correction real soon, if it wasn’t put in today, to that 1340 level or just 10 points lower than today’s low … looking for RSI to get oversold and then reverse quickly.
Wow take a look at that OPEN down another 7 bucks after hours. Those puts i picked up at open today should look even better tomorrow
and to put this in context:
“DAMN! now i’m ONLY up 16351351% over the last 18 months in my personal account”
I wish I could have bad luck like that!
“Keepin it real”….one of the reasons you have so many followers….
Holy shit OPEN!!!! Holy shit !!!!
With all these high beta/outrageous PE names getting hammered, could this be a turning point in the risk-on trade???
I said silver dropping could be canary in coal mine; hard to see hot money stocks flying higher while commodities get hammered. Part of the same animal.
Smells like late 2007!
We have a pawn shop here that buys US silver coins at 20% under spot and sells them for 10% under spot with no sales tax. I just bought a truck load of Peace and Morgan silver dollars, some in nearly unc condition, for $28 each. I bought another truck load of halves for $13 a piece, and paid up for some silver eagles. I paid $40 with no tax.
He usually only has a few halves, quarters and dimes, but this time he was loaded. He was also scared. These pawn brokers buy with borrowed money. The moral of the story is that he had all that extra inventory because people out there are also scared and they are dumping. It’s not just the paper silver market that’s deleveraging. This silver sell-off is getting some legs. I only hope I bought right and that I’m not the greater fool.
“Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own”. Baron de Rothschild
You are not.
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Fly, did you just listen to Cramer, it was as if he was talking directly to you. Leverage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes gotta Love Leverage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i join you sir fly i laugh as my accounts lose 25%+ in two days
So WNR will be over 20 tomorrow? I can wait until tomorrow to sell.
wait when does WNR announce??
Never liked the WNR chart. Too top heavy for my tastes. ZSL is looking good here — on the next dip.
But..but ,but………..I was told by The Fly sycophants that
I sold at the bottom…………16.98
I am a cockroach!
Ha!
wnr offered at 15.70 Ah… go get em boys
Yea thxs for being candid fly goes a long way.. Thought I was the only one who takes a nail to my dick.. I see it has happened to u as well..
Diddo # 1,001 on disclosing tough facts. Two observations M. Fly: 1) Unresolved issues can affect my trading (e.g. material improvements fighting for time) and 2) I try to stay with corporations with higher capital price and volume (at least $ 20-30). Not that you asked, care or that I’m qualified. Best!
Thanks for the honesty. Most hosts of the many blogs out there would have somehow twisted and turned this into a win for themselves. Some would even outright lie and post after the fact trades. Of course, no one believes that someone can make money everyday and its foolish to try to say that in public. We understand when losses happen, we all have been there.
to return the solid gold facets and get over it. Big deal.
somebody must have had a margin call in wnr after hours … they dumped at 15.36
Two observations. Fly is still holding refiners. Everyone here is acting like he threw in the towel. Didn’t happen.
agreed, basics of observation are sometimes not included in the comment section here.
I know.
How small can someone’s WNR get?
Western Refining, Inc.’s (WNR – Analyst Report) share price has entered into oversold territory with a stochastic value of 12.270. The Zacks Consensus Estimate on the company’s earnings for year ending 2011 increased by 15 cents over the past month to $2.02 per share. Western Refining, Inc is a Zacks #1 Rank (“Strong Buy”) company.
fuck you
I don’t understand. That’s right off of the Zacks website, not a cut.
of course it’s oversold. I don’t need Zacks for that.
we should just go fuck Zacks !!!
We all get our balls chopped off Fly.
I see lots of leverage getting obliterated all over the place. Just look at silver and some of the momo names.
IRX hit .01% today which means the market is scared SHITLESS and flying into cash.
I haven’t seen levels like this on the shorter end of the curve since before the crash of 2008. I have serious concerns that something is brewing.
I am mildly short and selling off some metals.
FLY
how the fuck are we gonna make our monies back?? Did you speak with your urinal shadows? Or did you fuck up your bathroom during this household renovation??? Or did you remove your magic mold that was giving you preternatural gifts?
Got-damn son, we needs to bank coin!
Your all so fucking stupid (except Senior Tropicana of course). The plan was always to take this bitch (WNR) into earnings. It is an earnings play which is still 36 hours away. Also, check the May seasonality for WNR. It ain’t over by a long shot. Mark it fuckers.
Besides I am an Asshole!
I can honestly say after being completely fucking numb from dealing with inferior genetic beings at the pharmacy all day one of the only things that can cheer me up is reading “Banned” or “Fuck you” from the Fly. Full disclosure long; WNR OME AMRN.
Fly, can you put 100,000 in a new account and show us how to get it up to 1 million fucking dollars …
he already did that
Many of us have lost a lot more…leverage is always bad…when you win “it never was my money”…when you loose..well, you know!!
We are now all looking forward to your reaction, as we can all from this..
.
I guess karma finally hit you on your sardonic, egotistical ass. Don’t forget to change your underwear, champ..
hahaha
Never forget: one day, a guy just like LeFly will bang a young female relative of yours until her eyes roll and her nostrils bleed. Thanks for playing. “Eat your inners, choke on your tongue Rip off your flesh, be gone Gouge your eyes out, drown in your spit Self-loathing son of a bitch – That’s it.” DevilDriver.
MOTR didn’t crush it’s numbers, but they did mark the third straight quarter without a bad loss and they expanded margins.
I hope the stock trades accordingly tomorrow, but who knows. I may have to stop out if it doesn’t.
Rather than join the castrati, I continued fishing, and brought some lunkers aboard.
I sure hope they don’t start to stink before I can get them back to port!
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Darn Stupid Bubble…Boy, I wish this is the top of it.
I read your blog, and blog myself at http://www.evilspeculator.com .
Much credit to you for admitting your mistake, and taking the correct steps to remedy it.
Respect Due!
I admire your honesty Fly.
The bull market’s not over so you’ll make it back. Might see some more downside first though IMO.