Homes sales are through the fucking floor boards. Now, I don’t want to hear about unemployment rates or how poor America is, when it comes to these numbers. After all, everyone I know has a job and lots of money in the bank, sans a few assholes that I grew up with in Brooklyn. With home prices 30-60% lower than where they were 5 years ago, the only logical answer to the “housing question” is “The Banks Hate You.”
You fuckers burned them last time around and now they hate you. Can you blame them, really? You fucking deadbeats nearly destroyed the entire world-wide shadow banking system, with your retarded Mcmansions. Hell, if I was a banker, I’d toss my dollars anywhere but the housing market. Because of this fact, I believe the Fed is trying to squeeze the banks into upping their risk profiles, by way of tightening the spread. They can’t raise rates, for that would cement the economy down. However, they can manipulate bond yields, effectively tightening the noose around the bankers necks.
The game of borrowing money from the Fed at low rates and buying treasuries is coming to an end. “The Hugh Hendry” has run its course, as predicted here by the way. The upside to TLT is limited and the risk is now on the other foot, if I might be so bold (no idea what that means).
We need ZERO DOC, ZERO INCOME NEEDED type of loans again, only this time at lower real estate values, to save the country from a housing depression that will make your faces bleed (again, no idea what I am writing here). The point I am trying to make, rather ineffectively: Your local bankers need to up the ante. Are they man enough to lend you money again? Are they stupid enough to finance more Mcmansions in the middle of the desert?
NOTE: CRE stocks are leading this bounce higher, alongside homies.
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The Fly is God!
Bounce higher?
I see a bounce lower starting about now, last chance for bulls to get out of dodge.
This is 2008 all over again, your face will be bleeding (sic).
All in on the VXX @ 22.55 treat money like poker chips!
Do you think the banks will lend me money to invest in the stock market?
YES!!
“effectively tightening the noose around the bankers necks”
Love the imagery. Now, where have I heard that expression before?
Yes, you are into nooses. I know. You still collect them?
I wear them on a regular basis. They are my accoutrement…
You write like there is some kind of adversarial relationship between the banks and the gov’t – LOL.
EVENTUALLY the PPT will be right…of course, so will the blind squirrel…
You should become familiar with its level of accuracy, fuckface.
Check out this beauty:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100050656-1726_Bella_Laguna_Ct_Encinitas_CA_92024
The dude bought it brand new from Barrett in 1999 for $1M.
By the time he was foreclosed upon he had $2.4M in loans against it putting the value around $3.2M.
Came on the market yesterday at $1.5M.
I can show you over a dozen others like this and four hundred dozen coming.
Looks like my cash rich friend looking to buy in that area will have a plethora of choices!
I am obviously exaggerating but he certainly will !
Wow… Sounds better than a 1500 sq. ft. two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan for the same money… Too bad the weather sucks out there, lol.
glad i only have a 45K mortage on my double wide.
Same thing happend to car sales after cash for clunkers ended….the home buyer tax credit ended, sales fell off the cliff….nothing significant in the numbers.
perhaps the Fed and SEC will lower margin requirments..quadruple buying power…
Government has to inflate it way out of this- no other choice. FED is going to have to give big bucks to the middle class this time, not the top 5% as it has done over the past 18 months. The savers are about to get the biggest screw job of their lives.
I read an article the other day where the IMF is just saying the US gov needs to cut social security, medicaid, and other things they call entitlements. Foreign influence is such a gem.
They will finance more MacMansions in the middle of the desert if the CDO market gets back swinging. Make 100 mortgage loans, put them together in a package, sell it, get the $ back, do another 100 mortgages, keep a bunch of loan fees. No reason to not do that. If you could sell the CDOs.
eliminate ALL mortgage debt..- start over….create another massive build out of 2nd,3rd,-5th homes and all the crap to fill them..
We are trading to the bottom of the range. Nothing exciting yet. I’m uncertain as to what to do next, so I think the right thing to do is to go eat a sandwich.
I agree, makes sense and have mulled that thought and talked with others, that agree, these NINJAs, No Docs, etc. they are going to have to bring that stuff back into the market.
otherwise, its the same ole wheel spinn.. agreed
enjoyed the post Mr F
Fed should just do it directly. Get your loan straight from the fed. Bypass the bankers. Of course, the Fed is too nice to ever foreclose.
I WANT MAH STIMALAS!!
This country and the rest of the world could go down in flames eventually, as there is no fiscal discipline, nor political will, or will of the people, to take the PAIN they so deserve for their fiscal stupidity and impudence.
In effect, the world has become pussified by the prosperity that was created by the debt bubble. Weak de-balled leadership is born out of prosperity and $30,000-a-plate fundraising dinners. The world is awash with weaklings and idiot idealogues running the show. This will not have a pretty ending.
Guard your investments and trading account, for Mr. Market is coming for it via, “the new normal”.
Cash is king (even when it appears to be impotent and cowering in a corner).
You’ve certainly changed your tune. I take it you are now a bear?
HE IS THE ALPHADAWGG!!
well said.
I am market agnostic.
What is, is. Go with it.
Never pick a fight with Mr. Market— you will always lose.
People are just not that smart.
I read a good argument about the strength of the Yen that I’m trying to chew over as it has an elegant ring to it.
The strength is backed by the aging Japanese population and just we used to witness money leaving to go abroad the aging Japanese are taking their money home and trying to ensure some safety in their retirement. That has a ring of truth to it that I hadn’t considered before and they need it to live on.
This could the the ultimate unwinding of the most massive of all carry trades then? Perhaps. It’s worth thinking about.
I dunno.
I think this “aging population thing” over there means we need to go long “used schoolgirl panties”, because they clearly won’t be able to make enough of them!
Poor little rich bankers. My heart bleeds for the likes of innocent little Blankmind and the other bank execs. Well, I guess there is plenty of blame to go around though, & the folks who have walked away from their underwater McMansion mortgages certainly deserve their share of it.
This financial recklessness will not end well. But it will not end soon either. The Fed was able to keep the juggling balls in the air for 4-1/2 years last time– 2003 to 2007. Once the current decline is over, if they start juggling furiously again during the next month, or during the next quarter or 2, they could keep the balls in the air for another 4-1/2 years– until 2015 or so– before the market acts rationally again & has the next mega-decline.
Forget the Hindenburg Omen.
I follow the Casey Stengel New York Met Omen.
The Markets had a crash in 1987 and 1998 (Asian Contagion day).
The New York Mets finished in 2d both of those years.
They are now about 8 games behind Philly for 2nd.
If the Mets finish 2d we will have a crash day in Oct.
If they don’t finish in 2d we won’t.
Real simple and we don’t need any Omens named after a giant balloon
Or, we will have a crash, regardless of what some 2nd-tier baseball team does.
That said, we’ll prolly see a bounce begin tomorrow or by the end of the week, as the market does its ebb and flow thing downward.
These banks need to turn their inventory (houses) into rental properties. The report says that prices have not gone down. Think about this. Initial assessments on houses are made by realtors who use comparables to value the house for offer. If foreclosed houses sit on their lot collecting rot and start looking like Jumanji with no improvement from the holder (the bank), those houses will bring down the value of the neighborhood and when coupled with oversupply and lack of demand, will cause a decline in prices. There should be something like long dated low interest rental loans to help struggling families too. Without mortgage payment obligations (and mortgage insurance), property tax, etc. the renter could probably survive and upkeep the property while living there, thus stabilizing the neighborhood home prices and providing pass-through payments to lenders.
Fly, the west coast is doing its magic on your writing. Keep it up!
gosh, the time for TBT is right now — eh, or in about 15 years, depending on how bad things get.
meanwhile, though, I’ve sure been happy with SCO. Plunging oil seems less tricky than rates hither or yen yon. I envision the world’s masters as just now starting to doubt their oil bets long…
We should all write letters in defense of our bankers
Everything is all fubar. Housing prices are relatively high while banks aren’t lending any money. Something has to give soon. Either let the whole thing collapse and smart investors can swoop in and purchase at fire sale prices, or the govt. is going to have to start guaranteeing bank loans.
This is absolutely right, except BOTH will happen.
Can you guess which will come first?
We are unlikely to have fire sale prices in real estate. Too many buyers at fair price.
It is fx bullshit, nothing to do with age. Just like the euro was collapsing two months ago, the yen is going up forever today
…..and Japan will be out of the export business soon, as they have no factories and don’t produce anything but bad horror movies.
Not really.
I was being facetious, sushi breath.
Take a culture class.
If we accept the fact that yen is a de facto very safe asset, then it’s strengthening makes total sense. Especially in continued uncertainties in both US and Europe.
If the Yen can stop going up, it eventually will. Trees don’t grow to the moon, and samurai don’t carry around tantos for nothin’.
I know, it makes no sense.
Neither does the market, until months or years later.
The Yen is not a safe asset, let alone a “very safe” asset.
Currency is like the stock of a country.
The Yen is saying that, either Japan, based on it’s fundamentals, actually has a strong vibrant economy (because of strong Yen), or the strong Yen is reflective of an overvaluation of Japan’s current doldrums and future prospects.
Go figure.
Strong yen is just saying that there’s demand for it outstripping supply. Where it comes from, I don’t know. But in light of decline in the US, Japan’s economy is rather stable, despite all those predictions of its soon death. My point is that when there’s shit in global economy, USD strengthens because it’s a reserve currency. When the shit is in the US, next best currency would be yen.
Strong Yen is killing Japan’s export market. Don’t see that as a stabilizing factor. Their PM and Finance minister have voiced much displeasure amongst the CB community. Intervention being pushed, but only if concerted.
However, valuations for stocks are cheap in Nipponville.
I am delighted…. thank you very much dear sir…
how’s that fuctarded trading going?
I miss those + 40 DOW days.
A new commercial banking deal these days is fairly rare. If banks are lending money at all it’s to take out some other bank. But that don’t count. You are simply replacing the debt and the aggregate level of leverage in the economy doesn’t budge.
Zero Doc & Zero Income …. that made me smile. You forgot zero down, pick-a-payment, stated income
The fact is… the banks’ books are littered with credits that are internally classified as “200% LTV” Externally, however, they are “performing”… If the correct math is applied, one can see that this can’t continue forever.
The scary thing is that banks will do whatever they can to hide the problem and not tell you about it… shhhh.
Yes, scary, but understandable. They certainly R not going to say “Everyone, please come over & open an account with our insolvent bank here & buy some of our stock while U R at it.”
Zombie Banks.
So, suppose you bot your house for $300K with 100K down, 200K mortgage. Your neighbor walks from his similar house, the bank repo’s it, an investor buys it for $125K. Now your mortgage is non-performing? Do you need to bring in another $75K to make it “performing?”
no. not non-performing if you continue to pay P&I on your $200K mortgage. However, this is where bank solvency comes in. They have an asset on the books for $200K when its worth $125K.
See… when a C&I operating line of credit secured by receivables or inventory goes out of margin like this, the credit folks at the banks freak. Certainly, they dont consider this a good loan and do whatever they can to reduce the balance…. many times by not accruing interest on portions of the debt to get their principal back. This happens even if payments are not missed mind you. They don’t do this with residential mortgage loans. There are hardly ever reserves.
BTW…. if I owed $200 for a $150 asset, I would walk away.
shit… and I’m a (workout) banker.
I have one comment to make about “neighbor walking away”. If there were harsh consequences that were also enforced for not paying your debts we would never be in this fucking mess! Oh excuse me….fuck ya all- I’m going to file Bankruptcy….so sorry for fucking you all over. Oh….ouch….ooooh no! My credit score just dropped…..but who gives a shit! I just spent a few hundred thousand of your money and I get some digits dropped from my FICO. What a fucking joke!
If you borrow money and can’t pay it back, your balls should be chopped off, your kids prostituted out, and your hair set on fucking fire! Then and only then will you have responsible borrowing.
…….loan anyone?
I respectfully disagree…
It’s not illegal to not pay your mortgage. Banks knew this when making loans. That’s why they are secured by the underlying real estate. Banks, effectively, fucked themselves.
Treu.
_____
Cramer is a Putz.
He voted for Obama, knew what he was getting and shouldn’t now complain about over regulation.
Anyone who voted for that clown is a Putz.
Yeah, like Bush was better, LOL.
Not better, just not as bad. 😉
That is about the kindest moniker one could lay on Cramer. But, not to worry. Life in the market is like golf, a game of short putz.
No way the market goes down here. They are stealing folks money right now. Running the market down during a low volume period when fear is running high. I may change my September/October thesis to a bullish stance , just because of these shenanigans.
We should close down 50 points today… We shall see….
What kind of points, sir.
DJ
uhoh bubo
don’t look too good at the moment
much to my chagrin
I voted for obama just so that i could vote against the dogsledder- true story.
Just know, gw bush is my personal idol.
R U serious? If so, why did U like him better than the dogsledder? She always seemed like a female version of Bush to me.
Frog, she seemed like a clueless cheerleader from Alaska to me. I voted for the Obama on that merit as well.
Could you imagine what would happen if McCain had a stroke? She’d be running the country.
Shame on the GOP for throwing her in there… I just hope they don’t repeat the same mistake in 2012
What if Cheney had had a stroke? Bush would have been running the country– the guy who sat reading a book to school kids during 9/11, while Cheney handled everything.
It could be worse we could have an affirmative action President who never had a paying job with no real world experience and a Vice President who’s a loud mouth blow hard who plagiarize his writings and …..oh wait a second
“…and a Vice President who’s a loud mouth blow hard..”
Joe, that you?
What a bunch of dumb fucks you all are.
What good is the smartest man in the world if he believes he has the “real answer” to implementing communism?
The dogsledder doesn’t believe in getting the government involved in every facet of your fucking life, but the community organizer — the very farthest left Senator we had and don’t act like you didn’t know it, all innocent like — most certainly did.
You dumbfucks deserve to zero out your portfolios.
________
Not to say that Obama is smart at all.
There’s a reason he’s never released a transcript while even Bush (dumb) and Gore (dumber) did.
We dont’ even know if that fast talking jagass even got out of Columbia.
_________
Famous “W” Quote:
“They misunderestimated me.”
Now they just “miss” him, period.
_____
I miss “W”, however just face the facts that the GOP messed up bigtime when adding Palin to the ticket. If they are stupid enough to let her run again, I will not vote GOP yet again.
If you attempt to argue that she is suitable for the job I will lose any respect I have for your political knowledge.
A rock is suitable for the job if the alternate is someone who wants to take away your freedom.
Don’t you get it? This is a country founded on limited government which in 75 short years has turned to almost “limitless” gov’t.
And now you cherry on top by being a baby about the dogsledder? Have you heard the term “cut off one’s nose to spite one’s own face?”
A rock will at least “do no harm.”
You are now without olafactory facilities because of your credulousness and spite.
________
__________
I would vote for Obama 30 times before I voted for the dogsledder once.
Jeezus people. Take your GWB pictures to someplace private and relieve yourselves.
Of course, what difference does it make? They are all like this:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9475702
I tried to turn a friend on to The Fly’s blog but he was too put off by the language and demeanor of the content.
I guess he just doesn’t understand the “Steven Colbert” nature of The Fly. Maybe there are not enough parenthetical statements, such as the ones in this post, to “break character”.
Too bad for him cause, like a good South Park episode, there is much good stuff if you can read between the raunchiness.
Maybe you shouldn’t introduce faggots to this site….
Fuck off.
Sorry if I offended you fags….Let me say it in different way. Donovan, maybe you should warn your gay friends that The Fly sometimes uses bad words to make a point. BUT he is very brilliant when it comes to analysis of market trends so filter the dirty words and use the site to bank coin….
That wasn’t for you. It was just a little levity for Donovan.
I thought that is what I said.
Some of you are kinda touchy.
Who is that in your avatar? Doc Watson?
_______
Ummm…that’s actually me. Who else?
I just assumed vking, et all think they are too important to show their actual faces.
Fly has no problem drawing in tons of people who R entertained by his highly creative take on things. No one can please everyone though.
Why don’t you have your dick removed to match your lack of balls….
LOL.
I thought you were banned.
V.King is so poetic with his words
Charles Nenner on CNBC right now…I love that guy
There is no way we are building a foundation for higher stock prices in the long term. Any band-aid nonsense instituted to raise stock prices temporarily will only delay – and probably worsen – the inevitable plunge. I am not a bearshitter, I am just a realist. Look around, people.
test.
my avatar is on the fritz, no?
TNA and FAS are looking like SRS.
Balls deep into a bear trap, I mean bull trap, but perhaps in a few days a bear trap again.
This market is spraying rocks out of it’s butthole (4:51): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uN2lfJ0mqs
Fly: You might want to meet this guy, he used to be an investment banker, but now helps entrepreneurs grow their companies. Free tonight in Del Mar (just north of La Jolla).
Meetup Description
Need Capital?
Customers?
Distribution?
Exposure?
IP Protection?
A stellar advisory team?
Something else?
Thanks to the folks at the Napoleon Hill Foundation for flying Berny Dohrmann into Southern California to shoot some video, we get to take the opportunity to have him speak live for you.
Berny Dohrmann – Top Business Strategist and Founder of CEOSpace – demonstrates a financial GPS for you to navigate through the years ahead:
Bestselling author, multi-billionaire business investor and business specialist Berny Dohrmann shows you:
• The Language of Capital & how to attract it like a magnet
• How to recognize opportunities in this economic climate.
• Why it’s better to ask for a seat on the board – AND how to do this.
• The secrets to cooperative business-building.
• New ways to create wealth you’ve never even thought of.
• Powerful ways to network your way to business growth and success – and WHY this skill will be more important than ever on the economic road ahead.
Berny Dohrmann is the founder of CEO Space, a new model for executive training. Mr. Dohrmann is also the author of Money Magic, Growing Rich with Diamonds, Living Life as a Super Achiever, and Perfection CAN BE Had (now being made into a motion picture). His father was a mentor to Napoleon Hill, Walt Disney, Earl Nightingale, Buckminster Fuller, W. Edwards Demming and many others.
For the last thirty years, Berny has been known as “Coach of the Coaches” …Anthony Robbins, Mark Victor Hansen, Jack Cannfield, Lisa Nichols, John Assaraf, Loral Langmier, T. Harv Ecker, John Gray, Bob Proctor, Robert Kiyosaki, Les Brown and just about any other big name you can think of, as well as head execs at companies like Starbucks, HSN, 3M, AT&T, ConocoPhillips, and many more. He is now counseling the United Nations and many foreign nations with regard to turning around the global economic crisis via Cooperative Capitalism.
Mr. Dohrmann has operated billion dollar investment companies worldwide with offices in fourteen countries and his materials have been distributed in seven languages. Today, Berny Dohrmann teaches others how to enrich their own lives through his books, as well as his live events.
This event will be a preview to CEO Space and allows people to consider whether CEO Space is an organization for them, and whether they have resources to share with the members. There will also be free coaching for those who are meeting Mr. Dohrmann for the very first time.
6:30 – 7 PM Check-in & General Networking
7 – 9 PM Introduction, Speaker Q & A, Coaching Circle, Cooperative Networking, Free Coaching
TUESDAY, August 24th, 2010
TIO LEO’s
Del Mar, CA
5 Freeway at 56 Freeway
Fly already is the CEO of Space.
______
HAHA!!
I just spit heineken all over my monitor.
Good one. I went to listen to a previous talk with Benny, he was previously the head of an investment banking company and was providing input on the financial reform bill. He felt inflation was going to kick into high gear and that derivatives needed to be reformed. He made a few anti-gold statements which I thought were unusual considering the expectation of high inflation rates, but perhaps he was thinking about higher interest rates around the corner with a Volker like move. He is an ideas guy and helps people with their business models as well as linking capital with investors. Cooperative capitalism is his gig, I was just looking forward to the Fly going there and knocking mustaches off of cooperative capitalists – they don’t play in a zero sum game trading world.
Do they have gmblers anonymous or AA for traders? I think over half of the people on here need it.
Trading ia like sex…. No one really has a vlue what theyre doing, but they think they are the best at it.
Up and down in and out… Constantly seekibg that “explosion” to new highs.