The market seems to be pricing in a phenomenal economic turnaround, a nirvana of sorts for greedy goblin like policy makers. With the new economic renaissance right around the corner, we can afford all sorts of shit, like fucked up health care, astronomical military expenditures and corrupted education budgets.
In the rare event that you are out of work, bereaved by unemployment, fear not for your dumb ass will be working at a local Census Bureau in no time at all!
I should have listened to my instincts and bought General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] , when it was sucking the gum off the concrete. Now that it is popping higher, I have nothing but hatred for the name.
In summary, economic nirvana is upon us, so ignore all jargon pertaining to bad stuff.
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I am waiting for a “blue blazer” day gentlemen, nothing more nothing less.
Que? What is this blue blazer you speak of?
I don’t think the signal to short will occur until Karl is wearing JUST a blue blazer.
Help is coming.
See denninger for blue blazer.
Adding to vxx here.
with the recent AR18 photo..I think he’s picking up the blazer soon.
Not to knock the other guys but scott is the best thing you’ve done to this site in a while.
Thanks.
That’s why I brought him on board.
yeh, I have enjoyed the streamer vids each morning….real good stuff here.
ditto.
LVLT imminent 18 month breakout
P – That would be nice for you and the others in the PPT in it. That POC frustrated even my great patience earlier this run. I ended up selling for a small gain, but it was NOT worth the wait.
Just wait for the actual breakout, you dont get as much of a gain… but you dont have to wait long and frusterate yourself
If you are correct.. you might as well buy anything that pops up on the AlphaDawg screener inside the PPT. There’s lots and lots of beat down companies that are going to rise this year and are at a fantastic bargain.
Close your eyes and buy!
Long live alphadawg.
Here here!
I would welcome some wisdom from Alpha right about now on the state of the markets.
Indeud, this is the most eff’ed up markets I seen in a while. I would wager we see a “poop explosion” in the near future.
I ate a RAW sweet potato. You’re going to hear about a poop explosion at the very least within the hour.
too funny…
I am taking such heat for moving my clients out of equities as the melt up continues. They have already forgotten how they wanted me to marry their daughters last year after I made a killing for them.
That said, it confirms my suspicion that I am right. When the gen pop start screaming buy, I have to start raising serious levels of cash.
Fly will be proven correct. Anyone with a time horizon greater than a 1-minute bar will acknowledge this.
Hey is it time to buy $VXX yet? I’m not sure what to do.
Book ’em, Johnno!
Yes.
The true internals are far worse than what the Dow is suggesting today. Look deeper. Go into the crevasse!
Before ye enter the foul crevasse, first ye must be brave enough to navigate past the markets’ mysterious outer flaps. A caution to all who enter!!!
Fly,
Does this mean you have decided to go long?
Drew
I have always been long, by 30% of my assets. My positions are posted in the PPT.
If you are wondering if I am going to reenter the market here, my answer is “most certainly not.”
What we need is a good old fashioned “shit the shower” day to give the burlap clad crowd some ammo to fling. And we are set up to have one at these levels and internals. However, it’s gonna take a catalyst. We have a giant pile of old tires and newspaper covered in jet fuel, but no match. Somebody has to take the coke away from the bulltards in the form of some economic or political upheaval that changes the dynamic. Until that catalyst comes (and we don’t know exactly when or what it will be) we are on an escalator up.
If you initiate exposure to the long side here, you are a fool. If you initiate exposure to the short side here, you will look like an idiot for possibly a long amount of time, and may get a visit from Guido the margin clerk. Patience in the face of “missing out” is key here. This is a waiting game, and the Fly is showing that he has the patience of Methuselah when it’s the right thing to do.
+1
In other words go eat sandwich Stanley and watch some hoops.
+1 – Treu, more hoops is a good thing.
Best “value add” comment in a while. Prospectus that is…
Everything is cyclical. A nice good catalyst to pull the carpet out from under the “economic euphoric/ nirvana.” Nice post.
Finally a decent post!
I’ve been sick and tired of all the bullshit fighting that has been going on lately.
Thank you Prospectus.
Fly,
Can you explain in a general way what it is you’re looking for to make you more aggressive?
5-0, you must be killing it right now with that trend following tool you’re always talking about. 23 out of the last 29 candles are green on the SPY. That’s a pretty nice uptrend. How’s it working out?
Dr.
When the market tanked in January, I got hit by about 6% as I was levered at 1.5 times the s&p. As I been whipsawed pretty badly in the past by using a strictly trend following system, I been in and out of this market since the last buy signal and have varied my cash positions dramatically usually ranging from 100% to 25% cash. As such, I am about break even right now with the end of last year and running at about 50% cash.
However, too get at the gist of your question, had I stayed fully invested at all times since the last signal and levered at 2 x s&p, I would be up about 10% now.
Prospectus- hard to get a sell off when “something” keeps loading up the bid side in DIA @ 107.80…Gee, I wonder if treasury bonds is used as collateral????
Indeud. All hail our Robot Trading Overlords. We’re gonna need an EMP in the form of a full Greek (or other member of the PIIGS) implosion or even another Wall Street bank going poof in the face of a state default. Something like that. Until then, party on Mr. Roboto…
If anyone reading this has been considering joining the PPT, just join it. It just gets better and better guys.
More and more great calls in the equivalent of our chat room on there. Remember, if you buy a month’s sub and then go “um…exactly why was I waiting?” you can upgrade to cheaper rates with longer timeframe. If you’re a newbie you’ll get helped and encouraged. If you’re a genius trader- you’ll have peers and will enjoy the response you’ll get. imo it’s the most cost effective money you can spend to make money in this robot wacko market. The community on there is terrific.
Questions? Doubts? Skeptical? Ask away and some of us in the PPT who are visiting ibc today can respond.
Why would I write this note? Because if I was new to ibc I would wish someone had told me the PPT and Fly and his team were the “real deal” in a very corrupt and untrustworthy marketplace. Lindsay (joined PPT 2/2009)
Umm, ok.
borrow one of KD’s blazers (fly’s dress code for first week in PPT) and see you soon tm
real time example for those of you considering joining — i forgot to mention re PPT– SOMX- up 130% something today? identified and called out in PPT by members right before it broke– played by some for huge wins who were on the board and pulled the trigger– they got in, got out–banked major coin. daily examples like that. if you’re an enthusiastic trader who likes to help contribute to and shape a community to get even stronger (and fly, rc, other ibc’ers are right in there with you posting trades and ideas real time) just hurry up and sign up.
ok, admittedly far too much caffeine today for this one. but still true. over and out.
The Fly is right, internals are worse than the S&P is showing except for Tech that has been seriously outperforming.
Did Merlin poof the oil and gas market?
DUG up 30 cents, DIG down a dollar. Fuckin thieves are robbing my eyes out blind on DUG.
Behold the steel curtain which is 107.80 on the DIA ETF..It can not be penatrated….ever
So are you dumping VXX?
My primary indicator of a long range trend change in the market is the number of daily 1-year highs
or lows of NYSE stocks. When the number of yearly new highs gets above 600, PREPARE TO SELL
and when it gets above 700, make SURE you have sold; and begin going short.
More or less the inverse of this (NYSE new LOWS) works at the end of Bear markets.
Yesterday the number of NYSE new 1-year highs reached 601. Get ready to pull the sell trigger.
Usually this indicator results in a fast selloff of 4 to 8 weeks, then a failed rally where the number
of yearly new highs reaches only a few hundred. When that happens, run for the hills.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-newhinyse-newhighs-20100317.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar
You sell tens of thousands of shares of DIA @ 107.80 yet it doesn’t go lower than that…odd,no?
What are they talking about on CNBC? Broadening?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-IkulPFMxs&feature=related
knock off 107.80 – I dare ya!
UNBELIEVABLE first round action. I thought Rob Morris was going to get it done.
God (and my Dad) are with the Villeuneuva (sic) Wildcats.
And they have Scotty. All hail the Scotty.
________
Bought more LWLG at 1.75. Get it on sale!!
Fly,
What is up with this market? Aren’t you going to do anything about the market not obeying the PPT hybrid? VXX being stoopid too? Maybe you could put up your infamous “Obey” or “Poof” header or something? Please?
Gamble of the month-optin expirat. $10K
March 48 put QQQQ
10 minutes to go…. looks like S&P will end green by 0.01 points… what a joke
ohhhhh… so close… good try… thanks for playing…
Speaking of hatred………….anyone else here looking back wistfully at the point where Ford was selling for a buck 26? I am.