Let the Chips Guide You
Many of you are besides yourself, pondering about the never ending stock market rally and why people are buying stocks.
I am going to tell you in very clear, concise words, as to why we are boot stomping ugly, monstrous bears higher
The market is not going up because of the Fed, Treasury, Banks, CRE or Pig Flu. The semiconductors marked the bottom, back in March, based upon a sharp uptick in demand, partly created by lack of supply.
In other words, factories were shut down. Utilization rates were saddled in the 30% range. Then, all of a sudden, the consumer showed signs of life, as they always do entering spring. Frantically, factories reopened, sending utilization rates upwards of 60%, almost doubling from the Jan-Feb levels. Due to lack of supply, prices for chips, packaging, testing and other services spiked, allowing companies like TSM, UMC, SPIL, ASX, TQNT etc, beat street estimates—due to better than expected margins. For fucks sake, even TXN beat the street.
Since then, the consumer has not disappointed, buying up flat panel lcd’s and smart phones, like they were candy bars.
In short, the rally will continue because inventories need to be restocked. Until we see utilization rates drop, the market will go higher, or sustain current levels.
I repeat: we will not trade lower, unless factory utilization rates head lower from here.
Going with that theory, I am adding to my CDNS position, ahead of earnings, based upon them sucking the tits of TSM.
NOTE: I bought 20,000 CDNS @ $4.75
50 Responses to Let the Chips Guide You
Hey Fry,
You make birdings out dese chip?
Blidges? Aplaht-ments? Factolies?
_______
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One more thing on DVAX look at these numbers!! While it not recurring revenue how often do you get to own a spec biotech like this with cash to fund themselves through for 12+months and ZERO debt.
Dynavax reported $60.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and investments held by Symphony Dynamo, Inc. (SDI), collectively referred to as total cash, at March 31, 2009. This compared to $68.5 million at December 31, 2008.
Total revenues were $19.3 million for the first quarter 2009, compared to $6.3 million for the first quarter 2008. The significant increase in revenues for the first quarter 2009 was primarily attributable to the recognition of $15.5 million of non-cash deferred revenue following the announcement of the termination of the Merck & Co., Inc. collaboration for HEPLISAV. The Company expects to recognize the remaining $12.9 million of non-cash deferred revenue from this collaboration agreement in the second quarter 2009.
On a pro forma basis, including collaboration funding from SDI, revenues were $20.1 million for the first quarter 2009, compared to $7.8 million for the first quarter 2008.
Total operating expenses were $15.0 million for the first quarter 2009, compared to $19.9 million for the first quarter 2008. The decrease in operating expenses for the first quarter 2009 was primarily due to a reduction in clinical development costs associated with HEPLISAV and the discontinuation of development for the TOLAMBATM ragweed allergy program in May 2008.
On a pro forma basis, excluding the one-time and other non-cash charges for stock-based compensation and amortization of intangible assets, operating expenses were $14.2 million for the first quarter 2009, compared to $19.0 million for the first quarter 2008.
The tables included as part of this press release provide a reconciliation of GAAP revenues and operating expenses to pro forma revenues and operating expenses.
Net income was $5.1 million, or $0.13 per share, for the first quarter 2009, compared to a net loss of $12.4 million, or $0.31 per share, for the first quarter 2008. The net income for the first quarter 2009 is due to the recognition of non-cash deferred revenue and a decrease in total operating expenses.
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special envoy headed by Dennis Kneale heading to Mexico City to consume leftover pork chops until crisis subsides..very patriotic..and his best use.
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Lets wait for EOD before claiming victory shall we?
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Fly,
With this analysis, do you peg it at 2 weeks min, 4 max.?
As George Costanza says:”Don’t double dip your chips.”
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So not even a pullback?
Just a straight up moon-shot?
I had to take a xanax so I don’t get too excited and sell something.
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It’s a sucker’s rally. Build optimism based on nothing, get everyone in, then pull the rug out from under them and vaccuum up. Show pictures of women and colored poeple in power on TV the entire time. No one will figure it out what the white elites are planning.
Stupid in, stupid out.
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Bravo Fly… I couldn’t agree more. BTW It sucks to be Carter Worth today. “We won’t go above 875″
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By the way I saw The Grateful Dead last night in NJ Branford Marsalis sat in for most of the show. Warren Haynes was out of this world with raw power! Some beautiful tributes to Garcia songs like High Time were touching and his cover of Dear Mr Fantasy was religious!
Sweeter than banking all this coin!!!
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Dennis Kneale would be a good speed bump at a bus depot.
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Dennis Kneale would be a better bump at those car rental lots where if one goes into reverse at the gate one ends up with flat tires (traffic spikes).
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Take the trade in front of you.
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I love ADBE however as I have posted endlessly I bought the moon at 17.1975 and will be selling my position if we get to 27 today. I will have a 60% gain and will not complain one bit.
Note: DXO is my largest position at 19,000 shares with a cost basis of $2.39. It is my belief that oil will rally if the market rallies and vice versa. I also really like entering UNG here, I have started the position at 13.18.
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Let CSCO guide you…just sold 1/3 of May 20′s for 28 cent gain (.12 basis). Rolling proceeds into ALU Jun 2.5′s and letting the other 2/3 ride thru earnings.
John Chambers is 2nd to God
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Dennis Kneale has guaranteed a +200 dow day.
Ruh-roh 
If that fucker is right, this market is going waaay tf higher.
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This flu stuff is going to flop – fade in a few days. Don’t forget TNA.
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Juice, The last hour should be quite entertaining.
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You bought 20,000 CanaDiaNS for 4.75?
That’s a good price, I always felt they were worth at least 4.99 each myself.
Oil will rally on how many million barrels of additional inventory every week?
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I never forget TNA.
And if I do forget TNA when I have Alzheimer’s I will leave instructions with my nurse to get the Viagra.
LOL @ IAMCANADIAN –
For the rest of you – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRI-A3vakVg (by way of explanation)
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Moved up stops on all longs. I think we’ll get a massive reverse and close in the red. Not betting on this but just saying. Today could be a head fake to draw in retail from the sidelines and force remaining bears to short cover.
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Braveflaps: This is the problem with many on this site, you look at the numbers and that is it. You refuse to look at reality or any of the meaningful shit. You only see one side of the picture and it handicaps you. Perfect example are the endless people fading the rally each day. Instead of drawing squiggly lines or looking at GDP gayness observe consumer confidence or general psychology of the consumer. Yes the rally is built on twigs but why not ride those twigs as far as you can. You are not bigger than the market and the same goes for oil. Fuck the numbers, what matters is where OPEC and the hostile countries feel it should be.
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@Fly
Nice theory about capacity utilization but if you look at the data it shows that capacity utilization is going down across the board including semi conductors
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/frbg17/g33441@1_utlsa
What do you make of that?
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Major indices appear to be breaking out from cup and handle formations even though techincal analysis is for asshats.
We hit resistance at the bottom of the March April trend line. If we break above we’ll probably end up making a double top at S&P 943 and Dow 9088 which coincidentally are around the 200 day MAs.
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Fingers are ready.
Channel switched from exotic eating foods on Travel Channel to CNBC.
Sound turned up.
Cold drink nearby.
Asprin ready.
you need to be hedging u fool, especially with all those crappy names u got!!!
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U U P UUP down lots, market up lots.
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Lots of pinball action.
Picked up 1% on XLF- in for about 20 seconds.
Big joke.
UP WE GO ASSHOLES!!!!
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Fed Is Said to Seek Capital for at Least Six Banks
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiz06xRmmeOQ&refer=worldwide
I thought it was only one bank that needed capital. At this rate, that fake Turner News site that supposedly had the results of the stress test will turn out to be true.
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selling short 3 emini’s here, due to treasury behavior.
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Don’t like the gold and gold stock action so far.
May not satisfy the liquidity driven bulls this PM.
late day sell off
start hedging
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Anyone seeing this? FAZ and FAS crossed at 8.25!!
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Why hasn’t the market surged after the Fed meeting? Shouldn’t the DOW be at 250 to 300 range by now?
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Fly, or Fly wannabe,
TQNT did not beat estimate of .09. Please stop pumping this stock,lol.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TriQuint-Announces-First-bw-15002257.html?.v=1
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DVAX goes vertical on a volume pivot through 1.17
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Okay.
Heard too much CNBC.
Back to the weird eating stuff on Travel Channel.
another 3…
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BREAKOUT! We are off to the races now.
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even fly can’t believe that this rally is built on fundamentals. losses in energy and bank earnings will be replaced by LCDs and warsher-dryer sales. cheap money and temporary tax breaks / returns are hardly a solid foundation for asshat stocks. he’ll be short again in about a week.
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SHROOMIN: http://tinyurl.com/ctct72
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TQNT did beat. Shut up.
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Apparently Natural Gas hasn’t gotten the news that this is a new bull market. Apparently everything is powered off hot air sans the fuel.
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Mr. Fly, I am sure that you were not referring to me, your mentor, as an Ahole. Note that SMH is performing as CDNS so why not buy SMH….unless you buy TNA, the better performer.
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market is about to swan dive into the Gowanus…
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Never question my moves.
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