Pardon me for not giving a fuck. I am filled with disdain and abject indifference to the daily fluctuations of Wall Street. Following yesterday’s fuckfest, I have opted to just sloth around the office, throwing metal bricks at people.
For all you Main Street fuckers interested in a little credit extension, pardon my colleagues in the banking industry who will soon rip your heart out, at fireside, while gingerly sipping on a fine aged cognac.
Sadly, I am up today, with my bullshit longs up and [[SRS]] . I was hoping to lose several million. That was so fucking fun, I could hardly believe it actually happened.
What’s my top pick?
Hey, how about Bob Steele’s company Wachovia Corporation [[WB]] ? Really, what are the odds they will go out of business twice? Seems like a no fucking brainer.
As you can tell, I am gleeful with glee over not selling any during yesterday’s smörgåsbord of fantasy stock market. It’s as if my fellow banking colleagues were investing with counterfeit money, with all of their nonchalant capital losing ways.
In closing, “The Fly” can give two gay goats and a fiddle about today. For all I care, “The Obama Man” can go to congress and punch everyones eyebrows off, while offing a cigar on McCain’s head, if that makes any sense.
My top pick, as always, is caffeine.
so you back at Dunkin Donuts? indicator to go long soon possibly after another sell-off or are we headin to 9000?
FWIW business lending is still OK – I am not having any issues securing funds for established businesses thus far provided their business credit and personal credit are in order.
Mmmmm gay goats…. so tender.
The first person to talk politics on this thread will get an instant ban.
IT are you watching?
Go ahead, fuck with me.
It’s all envy, Fly. These Main street dudes all wanted to work for the I-banks but just didn’t have the brains to get jobs there . They weren’t good enough. They were simply too gay.
The stupid fucks now wanna cut off their noses to spite their faces.
Sorry for the bad beat down, Inmates has always been running the Asylum
Fly,
One bad (okay, really bad) day out of your trading year shouldn’t make you so despondent. If it makes you feel better, I’ll tell you how much I’m down for the year and you can compare that to your ytd gains.
Controller:
Not interested, but thanks anyway.
Next.
Who is IT ?
What leveraged ETF can I use to get long ? shit I am long SSO and its completely fucked up. QLD is working fine for me. What else can I use ? Is there a double long China ETF that works ? FXI is good but I need more leverage.
Hey, the Fed funds rate at 7% was cool this morning.
Also, LIBOR. How cool is that?
controller
On wall street misery doesn’t share company. In fact you ough to be banned for possibly being bad Karma
.
I bought some Aussie dollar here. think it way over done. Stop below the lows at 7863.
My broker told me to buy some gold today, which I took as a sell. He’s the best contra indicator I’ve ever seen other than Vinnie who was once trading dollar yen for me.
Buy the new etf I just launched:
BALLS, trading on the Nasdaq.
Get yourself some BALLS today.
banks are not only going out of business, but the word bank will be removed from the dictionary… Fly, you might want to think about buying the domain name “icoin”
Yo Fly,
So you are long WB again? Steel will bankrupt Wachovia again, so he will be legible for TWO golden parachute. Mind you, him and Hank are sleeping in the same bed.
“May the best man win”…the SEQUEL
FCX rally.. too bad I didn’t wait a couple days later
Fly,
Have you still been to the future and does it still have higher stock prices in it?
with the way people mailed and called in, it appears that they are ready to ganbble with their lives… the house always WYNNS.
no oat meal today i guess
WB Valuation via our comrades at UBS:
We start with earnings of ~ $1b for retail brokerage (ex Pru’s stake) and $200m from asset management. There’s likely some unallocated expenses and higher funding costs than currently allocated—which implies run rate earnings closer to $1b. We also need to account for WB’s $9.8b of preferreds (and the ~$800m of annual dividends—assuming these will be paid)—leaving us with $200m of net income to common shareholders. If we assume a P/E of 10x and add the $2.2b WB got for its bank from Citi we find WB shares are worth ~ $2 per share.
Is Steve,the neighbor, OK? I am concerned. Rumor has it that he is in a wheelchair.
Careful Fuckers.
It’s time to take small bets on short-term positions. Throw your conviction right on out the fucking window … no one really gives a fuck. This market will rip you scrotum right off if you become convinced on any position.
I’m wining (again) today on my SSO small bet. I’ll probably switch positions before the close.
BTW, Fuck Off!
Mike:
Good point! Two golden parachutes is definitely better than one.
I never sold WB.
Maggot:
If you were within 40 yards of me, I’d have your chest hairs punched off.
@ The Game is Rigged: are those gay goats “cream filled” by any chance?
@ all:
This “credit crunch” talk is crap, it’s a Street and City event. In the real world, people and businesses that need credit and deserve it can still get it, it’s only hedgies and the overleveraged (which includes most publicly-traded banks but by all means not ALL banks!) having trouble.
There will be some form of bailout passed; the powers that be have too much at stake, but it won’t be for the benefit of “main street.” They’re just trying to make it LOOK enough like it benefits “main street” and look “bipartisan” enough to not jeopardize their re-election chances. [does that qualify for “bannage”? Hope not]
And I’m sick of hearing about how bad the “economy” is. Any of you pussies remember back when year-over-year CPI, the unemployment rate, and the vig on a 10-YT were all over 10% at the same time? I do. This ain’t shit.
So how is that dead cat bounce treating everyone today? Hmmmm?
That cat is still dead but it sure bounces purty when you drop it far enough.
Fly,
I have a two million dollar ring. Can start a bank. Oh I forgot that was the last housing bubble.
Bill
Did you read the comment about fed funds. They’re trading at 7% today, that means the entire country is rolling over short term money at that sorta rate. Do you understand what that means? The fed is trying to keep them at 2% and here you are telling us that things are dandy in Main Street.
Sold half the crap I bought yesterday, this rally smells bad.
listen people, the problem with WB right now is they dont know the status or their Bank Brokers.
All these slimeballs had to do was sit back in their respective branches and wait for dumb bank customers to come in and talk them out of a CD or a savings account, and viola! 5% commission.
There are 1200 in all but a very big part of revenue.
Now that all those WB branches are CITI branches, citi will probably use is smith barney brokers or hire some away from wachovia.
still, a loss of easy “walk in revenue” (was a huge competivive advantage to tradition brokers)
j
Do you understand that most of the fucking country doesn’t live on rolling over short term fucking money?
Everyone knows the plan will pass eventually. It doesn’t matter. The market is looking for excuses to sell off. We’ll be done when we see single-digit P/E’s all up in this motherfucker. Until then, the bias is SHORT.
It’s all envy, Fly. These Main street dudes all wanted to work for the I-banks but just didn’t have the brains to get jobs there.
I-bank? I don’t see no stinkin’ I-banks.
I wonder what happened to them?
must see
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMXhf2klQOs
Allied Capital (ALD) files for Chapter 11.
ALD – 0
Einhorn – 1
Is Bob Steele the new Chairman of HIG?
Bill:
But most of the firms they work for do, dude. It’s telling you money is real tight and lines of credit for small firms will be harder to get.
Thats why the fucking country oughta worry.
If it takes some pain to get rid of the banksters I’m game.
correction: A unit of ALD filed for Chapter 11 not the whole company itself.
http://ml-implode.com/
Look ma no hands.
This rally is silly. The only thing worth watching today is how the stocks close.
-DT
The Fly is Lord.
The Fly is God.
I’ve got your money right here. Come and get it.
ps- watch out for the t-t-t-trip wires.
Can anyone explain why the 2X ETF’s are so messed up?
REIT indexes are up 3 – 4%, but SRS has been up all day.
XLF is up 3.5%, but UYG is only up 3%
The Dow is up 2.4%, but DXD is down only 2.6%
Bill,
Several of us have tried to make the argument to no avail. I even went over to Barry Ritholz’s place and asked if there was research indicating what types of companies are dependent on short-term paper to help finance their operations.
No dice.
All I’m seeing is doom and gloom coming from the people who need the bailout.
At the end of the day it won’t matter because the bailout will be passed, the markets will continue to tank, the recession will come and go, and we’ll never really know if it helped or not. But some lucky SOBs on Wall Street will be singing to the bank with our money in their pockets.
j,
Most of the businesses on main street aren’t dependent on constantly getting fresh lines of credit. And just because you choose to believe that most of the firms they work for are dependent on constantly rolling over short term credit doesn’t make it so. The majority of businesses and jobs and commerce don’t come from publicly-traded mega-caps. These businesses may delay seeking new credit and function off of reserves, if they have to, but well-run small businesses won’t have any problems getting credit. They may not like the terms if they need it right now at this exact moment, but they will be able to get it if they need it. If they can delay it and get by on reserves (which they have, and I-Banks don’t have), then they’ll be fine.
Most of the country isn’t worried, and shouldn’t be. That said, the bankers WILL GET their bailout and this, too, will pass.
Some examples …
Example 1: Any business with no debt. Believe it or not, there are quite a few of these on “main street.” Maybe they’ve got a lease, but that lease isn’t being renegotiated every night, folks. And the landlord most likely has a fixed rate on their mortgage, so this isn’t a credit crisis for them. Most of these businesses are doing business with other small businesses in the local area, not with I-Bank, Inc. or AIG or LEH.
Example 2: Any small business with fixed-rate debt at affordable payments. They can tell the effective Fed Funds Rate to suck their dick, because they’re already paying a fixed amount on their mortgage and equipment. If they’re frugal and not extremely leveraged, they’ll make it through any rough patch just fine, no problems.
Example 3: Any privately-owned bank or small regional that kept a low leverage ratio, underwrote their credit risks, and held loan amounts close to deposit amounts. Yep, they didn’t make tons of ROE over the last five years, but they’re not having problems now.
Example 4: People with good credit scores and not much outstanding debt, and payments below their means. There are more than a few of us out here, and we’ll be able to get credit. Fuck, I can get credit now, I was just shopping for home improvements (re-siding and re-roofing) this week!
Of course banks won’t lend to other banks! That’s because they’re B-A-N-K-S! They know what their books look like! But not every business on main street is bank, you fuckers!
SSTURN: The 2X ETF’s are always fucked up when the market is volatile. They’re trading derivatives and swaps and futures to try and match the move, and the tracking errors are screwy when the market moves fast – they were like this in early 2007 as well, so it’s not local to right now.
They are what they are and they’re far from perfect, get used to it.
Out! Got shit to do …
Bill aka NO DooDahs!
Bill I can get credit any time also. In fact I get calls about doing a second. Local businesses are still offering no money down no payment for a year.
I see a few wanting to dump the junk on tax payers. Screw them.
Chivas – how did I miss that video?? OT, but semi-important, Danny is cute, very cute.
Did you read the comment about fed funds. They’re trading at 7% today, that means the entire country is rolling over short term money at that sorta rate. Do you understand what that means?
Yep, it means that the Wall Street middle man who raked in bucks by borrowing multiples of capital at 2% and lending to Main Street at 7% is toast. So sorry.
SMN down 5.4%
UYM down 1.2%
SMN is almost as bad an ETF as SKF. I must find a way to short SMN next time it’s up big.
Boca,
i had not seen it. just found it.
You must unlearn what you have learned.
The market fucked up is.
Fly, you are SUCH a BULLSHITTER!
Yesterday at 4:01 PM you posted
“Across the board, I blew out of equities today. It doesn’t really matter what the fundamentals or cost basis is; it’s done. I have no desire to play a game of political chicken with moronic corn cob fuckers.”
And today – WITH THE MARKET UP you post
“As you can tell, I am gleeful with glee over not selling any during yesterday’s smörgåsbord of fantasy stock market.”
Now WHICH IS IT Mr. Fly Bullshitter (who has made EVERY wrong call on this fuckin’ market for the last month). What a bunch of SUCKERS believe your shit. And when caught you say “Search the archives I post all my trades blah blah blah BLAH!”
I
Bill is right. Fuck Wall Street. This rise in overnight lending rates only affects banks. Does not affect Main Street. You can still borrow money. Its not as easy as it once was. But those were the crazy days. They’re never coming back. Get used to it. Fiscal responsibility is the name of the game. Have good credit, make real money and you can get credit no problem. The people who can’t get credit are the ones you wouldn’t want to give credit to anyway – The type that makes $50k a year and lives like they make $250k a year. Finance their ‘high-end’ lifestyle on borrowed money. Fuck that shit. Me on the other hand. I live of 10% of my income. The rest I save and invest. That’s the way it should be.
Fuck you, Fuckyoubailout:
If you had the reading comprehension of a 2nd grader you’d know I was referring to WB, which nailed me for over 100k yesterday.
Hardly a reason to brag. It’s called sarcasm.
And, no, I have not been wrong for a month. I have been wrong for a whole 1.5 weeks.
Dogwood and Bill for President and V. President…!!
(Of my local banking institution, of course)
—
You’re all idiots.
Short Mexicans. Go long Amish. Get a horse and carriage.
Skip the Fly paper. He is due for a good run.
These comments are like Hee Haw for rich people.
Idiots
Banking
Coin
we are 😛
Fly,
I love the way you so caringly don’t care for all of your internet leeches.
Fly cares for us like a hog farmer cares for his hogs.
Ya know, Fly, I’m persuadable on this bailout issue, unfortunately, the people promoting and supporting the bailout haven’t tried to persuade.
The entire campaign for the bailout has been nothing but an appeal to authority. “Trust us, we know what we are doing and this is the only way to save us all from the economic equivalent of the Black Death.”
Unfortunately for the experts, the idiots on Main Street are not impressed because if bailout proponents were as smart as they say they are, then we wouldn’t be in this mess to begin with.
In other words, Main Street has lost confidence in Wall Street, and no amount of chest thumping is going to restore that confidence.
Instead, bailout supporters need to be very detailed in explaining the crisis, demonstrate how much of the economy is dependent upon the short-term debt markets, and then provide a timeline for what steps need to be taken, when, and how the taxpayers $700 billion are going to be protected.
Finally, Main Street wants to know what policy and regulatory changes are going to be made to insure this never happens again.
But none of the above is happening.
Instead, it is one appeal to authority and expertise after another, after another, after another. And none of those appeals to authority come with a guarantee that the bailout will actually work.
Rant and rave against the idiots on Main Street all you want, but I would think a bunch of Ivy Leaguers on Wall Street could and should be doing a much better job making their case to the American people.
Wow. You guys are really into this class warfare shit, without even actually knowing you are doing it.
Marx would be proud.
To hell with the bourgeois bankers and their Ivy league educations. Long live the working man!!!
Workers Unite!!!
We’re just using your terms Fly. You’re calling Main Street a bunch of idiots, yet you refuse to actually make a strong, factually-based argument for your position on the bailout.
We’re simply adopting your language and throwing it back into your face.
It has nothing to do with class warfare, it is just a nice, healthy debate, but if changing the subject makes you feel better, well, it is your blog.
C’est la vie.
Dude, you’re trying to have a civil debate on the internet.
I’d like to hear Jakes idea …. bet he’d like to see everything fail to effect another transfer of wealth this time from the middle class to the elitists rather than all of us to BRIC nations …. kind of a recapitalization of the Aristocracy or “bailout” if you will.
Dude, you’re trying to have a civil debate on the internet.
Yeah, I know, radical concept.
Moron 8:
Your use of the straw man is in true leftist fashion, but let’s use the filthy one you just constructed–
If the choice is between giving money to those who will do responsible things with it and those who will not, I’m always going to choose the pro-growth hustlers who pay all the taxes over the hapless who can’t dress themselves without gummint help.
That said, this is not what the argument against your provisos is about — it’s about battling corruption in government.
__
is that a political post?
Philosophical.
Plus, this is a pre-ban thread.
Btw — who is “IT?”
__
Corruption in gov’t is when the well connected got pre-auction preference on RTC owned property … is that what we will have to look forward to again? Giving Trump a nice tax credit to boot for doing us the favor of taking some ocean front property off our hands and selling it years later to a Russian fertilizer king at a hugh gain … thanks for the input, ouch!
Chivas – You’ve never seen my video trilogy??!
Boca – thanks.
Danny,
no. what is it about? i would like to see it.
Ivy league??? BWAHAHAHAHA!! Ivy league in what, how to rip people off with impunity?? Ivy league??? BWAHAHAHAHA!! The smartest guyz in the world f@cked the entire world eCONoME in the a$$. Ivy league??? BWAHAHAHAHA!! Grifters, I believe the word is grifters. F@ck the dollar, F@ck everyone named Paulson.
I never said “Fuck Wall Street.” Heck, most of my risk capital is “at risk” in the markets, and thanks to the Cantillon effect and the presence of powerful central banks, my best chance at growing my savings faster than the government can inflate it away is through speculation in the financial markets. For that reason, I LIKE Wall Street.
I did cuss entirely too fucking much, though, so it’s probably easy to misunderstand.
I just want to really goddamn clear, and this is NOT MAIN STREET’S PROBLEM.
The whole “we need the bailout for the E-C-O-N-O-M-Y!!!” line of screaming is just a big, gay blowjob.
I do totally understand WHY people on the Street and in the City would suck a dick to get this thing passed, and I don’t really blame them for it.
Fly, you need to separate the tax dollars.
* income taxes
* property taxes
* ss and other taxes
* sales taxes
* inflation tax (devaluation of the currency)
Yep, the cats on the Street pay more income taxes, and the groids in the projects are net income tax recipients. So?
EVERYBODY pays property taxes. Even the ‘spics that do your lawn, Fly. When they buy their Jugo and phone cards, they help pay the property taxes for the convenience store on the corner.
While they’re there, they pay sales taxes.
Before the “government” catches the fraudulent ssn they gave, they pay payroll taxes (and will never get a dime of that back, which is one reason why the government is so light on illegal workers).
Everyone who holds $$ pays the price of inflation. Even the Chinese.
So don’t come off like the rich are paying all the taxes. They ain’t.
It IS a bailout. It WILL be passed, in one form or another. The powers that be have too much at stake.
But it also an awful lot of money. I wonder how many mortgages $700 billion would pay? Hmm 180 million homes, only 2/3 have mortgages, say 30% of them are subprime and 20% of those are in default, then that’s …
wait for it …
$96,738.53 per sub-prime mortgage in default!
Interesting, no?
What’s with the racist remark, bud?
So Bill, are you saying my mortgage is getting paid off by the government? Hot dang! Now I can go get that plasma TV I’ve been wanting.
Chinga, Bill. You gringo muthafukka.
Hey, I resemble that!
What’s with the racist remark, bud?
We’ve had a lot of this today – many remarks on other threads about how trading is different (in more ways than just volume) during Rosh Hashanah and will change after the holiday.
Shut up, bitches—-and pass me a napkin!
Fly
There you go again, changing the subject rather than addressing the points. You did at earlier in the afternoon in response to Dogwood. It’s your blog, but if you want bigoted slang in the comments to be limited to sexual orientation, penis size, and class warfare, with ethnicity off-limits but rampant cursing allowed, it might be nice for you to have a list of what’s allowed and what isn’t. Should I only use slurs and curse words that you use, first, or that someone else uses and doesn’t get objected to by you, in order to make sure you don’t object? I’m pretty sure everybody here uses language that they don’t use away from here …
Then please feel free to address why you think this is Main Street’s problem, why you think only rich people pay taxes, and why you think the $700 billion should go them instead of to the people with mortgages in default.
🙂
First of all, I only insult homo’s, mainly because they are gay. I never use racial remarks, because it shockingly ignorant, as opposed to just ignorant when insulting homo’s.
No offense.
I would think you are able to distinguish the difference between “fuck you cocksucker” and “spic”.
If not, so sorry.
As for your questions:
The poor folk on Main Street pay very little taxes. But, I am sure many of you mid-enders, who are against the bill, pay your fair share.
Tax revenue is not my point.
My point is (drum roll) the banking system is interconnected. There is no such thing as isolated financial disaster. I guarantee, within 6 months, fucking farmers will be blowing up, due to their over-leveraging their stupid farms, via fancy seeds, fertilizer, pivots, tractors, etc.
Now, if you think the 700 bill will have zero effect, that’s a different argument. I happen to think it can help.
With that flawless logic, if it can help, well then, it can’t hurt!!
Oh, by the way, inflation is deader than T. Boone Pickens hedge fund. No need to worry about the inflationary effects of another 700 bill.
Feel free to edit the comment and substitute “illegal mexicans” for the offensive word, then. You seem to be OK with that, and with the rest of the language. And if you don’t want to edit the comment, then fuck you, cocksucker.
🙂
Farming isn’t “main street.” There are some vanity family farms, and some people out to qualify for ag exempt from their local property taxes, but they’re not serious sustainable businesses. Farming in the U.S. is big corporate business, with GPS-guided tractors and combines, 10s of thousands of acres at a time, etc. Check the average size of farms and the number of people working in ag in the U.S.
Don’t confuse CPI with inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, and when they create new dollars, they necessarily reduce the spending power of dollars in storage. Read Cantillon’s writings for a glimpse of why the government’s a big fan of inflation – they get to spend the new dollars first and therefore get the benefit, whereas the last users of the new dollars get buttfucked like a Romanian goat.
Hey, is “Romanian” OK? Does that disparage goats? Just checking …
Read in the WSJ the other day that there are 300,000 farmers making over $200,000 a year.
WTF ?? Call me “city boy” but I didn’t even know we had that many fuckin’ farmers!
__
Hey Jake, I didn’t know either.
Anyways, what time are we heading out tonight?
Apologize if this gets duplicated, but it looks like it ate my comment.
300,000 farmers = 1/10th of one percent of the population. Not counting, of course, all of the migrant and seasonal labor, making much less and often living crowded in a camp house during the summer.
Ag is less than 1% of GDP composition.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_sector_composition
Only 7/10s of a percent of the U.S. population over 15 is employed in farming.
http://www.oesc.state.ok.us/lmi/LMILaborForceMaps/OccEmp/PctFarmOcc.pdf
Again, I don’t think that counts undocumented workers in the cash economy.
Average size of U.S. farms is increasing as the shift to big business continues.
http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/PRU/farm_size.pdf
Average farm size by itself is misleading. It depends on the crop and the corporate structure. Smaller ops can be sustainable as part of a co-op in some areas, like raising chickens or cattle, but I think it’s really hard to do something like cotton without a lot of scale. Work out market prices for cotton vs. yields per acre and see how many acres you need to live off of the “king” cotton.
Good to see you here Bill, ripping shit up!
Bill is acting like a faggot though.
Woodshedder is what Savage would call “The Enemy Within.”
Nah Fly, my allegiance is to The Fly and iBC.
However, I do admit it tickles me to hear Bill, who is usually somewhat staid and conservative in his regular portfolio updates, curse and rant like Bill Maher.