Tough times for Nokia. Do you think its a buy ?
Comments »Citibank Misses Estimates by $0.07
Warning: ‘FRIGGATRISKAIDEKAPHOBIA’
A funny expression coined for Fear of Friday the 13th.
As a side bar, i am long with no real hedge and have to be out of the office today. Typically on days like this the market goes against me pretty bad.
“Friggatriskaidekaphobia is the title to Nomura’s Americas Morning Comment this morning. That’s perfect.
The word, of course, means fear of Friday the 13th.
It’s perfect since today is Friday the 13th, and there’s all kinds of bad stuff going on.
- China’s GDP report registered a big miss.
- North Korea fired off a rocket last night.
- European markets are getting smashed.
- Italian industrial production fell 0.7%.
- UK PPI increased more than expected.
- US futures are down,
- Spanish CDS are at new highs.
- The Spanish stock market is getting creamed.”
Proof: World is Upside Down
I think they should add a wet bar and cigar lounge to join this addition…..
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4boNyIW-2w 450 300] Comments »How to Create Fake Growth Chinese Style
“This is a guest post from Christopher Pavese, CFA, Chief Investment Officer at Broyhill Asset Management. He and his team have recently been on a research-intensive trip in China, and has kindly agreed to share what he found. Visit his blog (The View from the Blue Ridge) for more analyses.
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was a single-party state ruled by the Communist Party. The state was structured under a highly-centralized government and a command economy, meaning both capital and resources could be mobilized quickly and proficiently. However, speed and agility do guarantee economic efficiency and can often result in a massive misallocation of capital, which ultimately comes at a high price. This is a lesson China has chosen to ignore as signs of capital misallocation are widespread throughout the People’s Republic today.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimates that average living space per head is over 30 square meters in China, extraordinarily high given the country’s current income levels. “Based on international comparisons, a country at China’s level of GDP per head should have 20 square meters of living area, which would mean that China is 53% over-housed,” according to the EIU. Despite China already being the most “over-housed” country in the world, official data show a further three billion square meters of residential property currently under construction, according to The Wall Street Journal.
China’s real estate sector directly accounts for roughly 12% of GDP. To help put this figure in perspective, consider that private real estate investment in the US reached a staggering 6.3% of GDP at the peak of the housing market, in 2005. But China’s astonishing figure also ignores countless related industries driven by the bubble in construction (i.e. steel, cement, etc.) and the illusion of wealth created by a historic credit binge (i.e. appliances, home furnishings, etc.). A more inclusive estimate of Chinese real estate’s impact on GDP could be twice the commonly reported figures. Our friend, Vikram Mansharamani, provided some color into the excesses in the steel sector in his excellent book, Boombustology:
“When thinking about over investment and the potential for a bust, the steel industry exemplifies overcapacity. Chinese steel production has grown from 23 million tons in 1977 to a run rate of approximately 650 million tons during the first half of 2010. This growth has taken the Chinese steel industry’s share of global steel production from around 3% in 1977 to almost 50% by 2010.
“If we take a moment to break down the sources of demand for Chinese steel, one finds a potentially reflexive relationship with the property market. Anecdotal evidence suggests that up to 20% of Chinese steel production is being used to construct more steel mills!
“Most believe that utilization has been running between 65% and 75%. The WSJ reported in 2009 that there existed 200 million tons of excess capacity, while UBS analysis conducted in early 2010 suggested there was about 175 million tons of excess capacity. To put these numbers in context, 175 million tons of annual steel production is more than the production of South Korea and Japan – combined! Steel does not appear to be an outlier; similar grandiose statistics can be found for the size of the Chinese cement (greater than the rest of the world combined) and aluminum industries.”
With home prices now following transaction activity sharply lower, the biggest risk for the Chinese economy, as well as the rest of the world, is a sharp slowdown in new construction. Granted, official data still paint a more “balanced” picture, consistent with the standard responses we received from various developers throughout the country. When asked about the outlook for real estate prices we were regularly told that, “prices have reached bottom,” or that “prices have stabilized,” but curiously, when asked how much they had fallen, the immediate response was always, “they have not fallen.” Odd. Perhaps the laws of economics work differently in a command economy, but in a market economy prices tend to fall before “reaching bottom.”
While interested parties remain in denial, disagreements between friends are often settled using the following equation: “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.” Consider that China Vanke, the nation’s top property developer, suffered a 40% drop in January sales. Consider that sales of excavators and bulldozers dropped by 53% and 67% respectively in January, according to China Construction Machinery Business Online. And consider that inventory levels recently reached historic highs at the same time sales activity has dropped off a cliff.
Figures don’t lie and liars figure, but a picture is worth a thousand word. So we’ll summarize how we view the Chinese economy’s attempt at rebalancing away from domestic investment and toward consumption with a few pictures. But first, consider that one of the most insightful nuggets from our visits with various local government officials was the common belief that, “Developing new cities and building new infrastructure will increase consumption.” Judging by the foot traffic shown in this Zhuhai Home Furnishings Mall, you could say that I am slightly suspicious. Please note that this particular savvy shopper is none other than our own, Hunt Broyhill, not a Chinese home owner.
And the striking gentleman at the railing in the photo on the right is none other than Cullen Thompson, CIO of Bienville Capital Management. Also, not a Chinese home owner, although full disclosure, the two women shown on the left picture, may very well be actual Chinese consumers.
We did not have any more success finding foot traffic at The Global Furnishing Design and Exhibition Center in Shanghai, the largest city in the world, and one where you might expect to see more than a few signs of increased consumption.
Not so much.
Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China, estimates that the top one percent of Chinese households own up to half of the bank deposits in the country. You might have expected to see at least a handful of the ten million plus people this represents shopping on a weekday afternoon.
More on these bank deposits in our next post . “
Comments »HSBC Says Emerging Market Growth Has Grown at its Fastest Clip in 9 Months
“Emerging-market economies probably grew at the fastest pace in nine months in the first quarter as manufacturing rebounded from a slump and services expanded, according to HSBC Plc, which cited a purchasing-managers survey.
The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, which is compiled by London-based Markit Economics and tracks conditions at more than 5,000 reporting companies, advanced to 53.4 from 52.4 in the previous three months, the first increase in three quarters.
“There’s been a gentle improvement and a slight acceleration in economic activity,” Murat Ulgen, HSBC’s London- based chief economist for central and eastern Europe and sub- Saharan Africa, said yesterday in a phone interview. “Despite all the problems in the West — subdued growth and unemployment — emerging nations are generally immune and holding up well.”
Emerging markets will continue to benefit from productivity gains and better access to capital, HSBC said. Governments there also have more room than their developed-world counterparts for fiscal stimulus while central banks are shifting focus to supporting growth from curbing inflation as price increases ease, except in India, it said….”
Comments »NBC News Australia: Preparing for Alien Invasion
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g8VNyDZPTM 450 300]
Comments »Coffee Break: The Invisible Car
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIGzpi9lCck 450 300]
Comments »The USS Enterprise Sets Sail for the Gulf
Gold Crash on Fed Tightening and Euro Salvation Looks Premature
Until the rising reserve powers of Asia, Russia and the Gulf regain trust in the shattered credibility of the world’s two great fiat currencies – if they ever do – gold is unlikely to crash far or remain in the doldrums for long. `Peak gold’ cements the price floor in any case.
It has been an unsettling experience for late-comers who joined the gold rush near all-time highs of $1923 an ounce last September. The slide has become deeply threatening since the US Federal Reserve took quantitative easing (QE3) off the table six weeks ago – or appeared to do so – and signalled the start of a new tightening cycle. Spot gold ended the pre-Easter week at $1636.
“The game has changed,” says Dennis Gartman, apostle of the long rally who now scornfully tells gold bugs that he is just a “mercenary”, not a member of their cult. “They genuflect in gold’s direction; we merely acknowledge that it exists as a trading vehicle and nothing more. There are times to be bullish, and times to be bearish … to every season, as Ecclesiastes tells us.”
Read the rest here.
Insane Pics of Devotees Being Crucified in the Philippines
Pope Benedict XVI: Mankind is Groping in Darkness
“VATICAN CITY (AP) — Pope Benedict XVI, carrying a tall, lit candle, ushered in Christianity’s most joyous celebration with an Easter vigil service Saturday night, but voiced fears that mankind is groping in darkness, unable to distinguish good from evil.
Easter for Christians commemorates Christ’s triumph over death with his resurrection following his crucifixion.
“Life is stronger than death. Good is stronger than evil. Love is stronger than hate. Truth is stronger than lies,” Benedict, wearing white robes in a symbol of new life, told the faithful in a packed St. Peter’s Basilica….”
Comments »Exposing the New Age Movement
So my discussion with Taco has caused me to investigate further into this so called conspiracy called the New Age Movement or Occult.
For the record, the documentary posted yesterday, ANIMA, is not in my opinion a production of globalist or new age occultists trying to further their cause. Taco did try to find out who were the producers, but came up with nothing.
To me it is a collection of speakings, films, and scenario’s that discuss a thought process to be more conscious of the health of the planet and good will towards our fellow man. IMO it it no way tries to strike down Christian beliefs nor is it a ploy to get people to act a certain way to in order to escape damnation or hatred of Christians.
How ANIMA could be misconstrued with the New Age Movement is beyond me. My guess is those who fear and make claims against self awareness and a symbiotic relationship with the planet is either not watching the video and making claims upon fearful belief structures in their psyche or have an agenda of their own to ….my guess save their religion against what they believe are the forces of evil working against their beliefs.
You can read more about The New Age Movement here and here. Otherwise you can watch a video below.
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5Ht_SrJYK0&feature=related 450 300]Comments »
ANIMA: A Documentary for a Taco Nation
An interesting exploration into the self. How fitting for this weekend’s holiday.
Cheers on your weekend!
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZep-oqz9sM 450 300]Anima from Dominoes Falling Productions, is a feature length documentary using a collaboration of various material.
The film examines our relationships with ourselves, others and the environment around us.
Other themes include our creativity and our power as individuals and as a collective to manifest our own reality.
an·i·ma – The Latin translation of the Greek word psyche.
1. The inner self of an individual (soul); a relationship with that which is greater than self.
2. Expressions of the unconscious or true inner self of an individual (Carl Jung’s school of analytical psychology).
Comments »Welcome to the Anthropocene
I’d like to think that man will rise to the occasion of becoming sentient beings in the eastern philosophy sense…sooner rather than later.
These videos speak to me despite not being sure what our ultimate effect is upon mother earth and ourselves as a species.
Good stewardship of the planet and good will to one and other is all that really matters.
Perhaps some day we can move closer to a better life for our species. Planned obsolescence, debt traps, chattel slavery, etc. is just not to my liking.
Enough said; and taco this is not a hidden message to support Agenda 21…lol
Good evening.
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvgG-pxlobk 450 300] [youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KphWsnhZ4Ag 450 300] Comments »Coffee Break: How to Create a Zombie
Now for Something Completely Different
Tee Times
“The first-round pairings for this weekend’s Masters are out.
Here are the big ones, in order of intrigue:
10:35 a.m. — Tiger Woods, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Sang-Moon Bae
1:42 p.m. — Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Angel Cabrera
1:53 p.m. — Phil Mickelson, Hunter Mahan, Peter Hanson
8:45 a.m. — Adam Scott, Bo Van Pelt, Martin Kaymer
10:46 a.m. — Luke Donald, Francesco Molinari, Nick Watney
12:58 p.m. — Vijay Singh, Lee Westwood, Jim Furyk
10:24 a.m. — Charl Schwartzel, Keegan Bradley, Kelly Kraft (a)
9:29 a.m. — Trevor Immelman, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose
ESPN coverage begins on Thursday at 3 p.m.”
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