Europe takes a hit on the chin
Comments »The Dollar Slips Against Most Currencies Over Night
The dollar index is just a smidge above all time lows @ 74.04
A natural reaction to Bernanke speaking in Jackson Hole
Comments »Flash: Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan Announces His Resignation
This will clear the way for 6th Prime Minister in past 5 years.
Comments »Will Hurricane Irene Be a Black Swan for the U.S. Economy?
The U.S. economy is growing very slowly, just 0.4 percent in the first quarter, 1.3 percent in the second. And it might not do a whole better the rest of the year. That’s a problem. A recent study from the Federal Reserve finds that that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 48 percent of the time. (And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 70 percent of the time.
So while we may be in a recovery, it’s a fragile one, at best. In short, nothing can go wrong or we’ll end up back in recession. That’s a big reason everyone is so focused on Europe and its ongoing sovereign debt and banking troubles. And why problems at Bank of America cause flashbacks of 2008.
But what about the nasty storm making its way up the East Coast? What’s the potential it causes enough economic damage and disruption to nudge the American economy back into a downturn? Well, I suppose the worst-case scenario would be a direct strike on New York City. That would be pretty bad:
In the city, a hurricane’s storm surge would cause sudden, extensive flooding, submerging much of Lower Manhattan and crippling the subway system and tunnels.
The powerful winds would uproot thousands of trees, down power lines and send debris flying in all corners of the city. And those winds could shatter windows on skyscrapers, especially in the taller buildings that would bear the brunt of powerful gusts that occur at higher elevations. The canyons of Manhattan could magnify the winds, and would be a deadly place for anyone caught beneath the raining glass.
Other comparisons to Hurricane Katrina are hard to ignore. Katrina, the most costly natural disaster in U.S. history, caused insured losses of more than $40 billion in 2005. AIR Worldwide, a firm that models disaster scenarios for insurance companies, has said that a repeat of the Long Island Express would cost $33 billion if it happened today. In the most dire projections, a direct hit on New York City could cost upwards of $100 billion.
The impact would be felt long after flood waters recede. Coch predicts that the salt water in the subway would corrode the switches and cripple the system for months or years, and disable much of the communications infrastructure in Lower Manhattan. “In 1893, Wall Street was cut off from the rest of the country when the telegraph lines went down,” he said. “Imagine what would happen now when the fiber optic cable failed.”
Sounds a lot worse than Hurricane Katrina given the incredible importance of Manhattan to the U.S. and global economy. Tough to quantify, of course. But, for comparison purposes, here is a Congressional Research Service analysis of the economic impact of Katrina in 2005:
Read the rest here.
Comments »Documentary: How The Banks Won
Business as usual for the banks…
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmy2MmWsyog&feature=player_embedded#! 450 300] Comments »FLASH: THE FROG IS PERMITTED TO LEAP ACROSS THE POND
USGS Warns The Virginia Earthquake May be a ForeShock
FLASH: Pandora’s First Public Q; Revenues of $67 Mn vs Consensus of $60.26 Mn and a Non Gap EPS of $0.03 vs Consensus of $0.00
Poof: Yesterday’s Rally Gone
More Afternoon Fun: Smoking Baby Video
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4c_wI6kQyE 450 300]
Comments »Late Afternoon Fun: The Effects of Yesterday’s Earthquake
USA To Become the Next Low Wage Haven
CME to Hike Margin Requirements Again on Gold
You know what they say; you can’t keep a good thing down.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDod1HUdL6E 450 300]Comments »
Will Buffet Be the Last White Knight For BofA ?
Short Selling Ban Extended in France, Spain, and Italy
Watch the Bahamas Get Flayed by Irene
FLASH: Treasury Department Announces Settlement With JPM
developing….JPM offers no comment
Comments »Fed’s Hoenig Does Not See a Recession on the Horizon
Early Lunch Break: A Man Break
Why Germany is Tanking: Bi-lateral Talks With Finland and Greece Likely to Fall Through Adding Pressure to Germany and French Banks
A German finance minister said that a bi-lateral agreement with Finland and Greece is likely to fall through. Bots react.
This would put added pressure upon German and French banks.
Comments »
