+6.1% to $16.18

That’s going to far guy…$1,450 is my floor

to $15.6

WTI hit $95 yesterday while Brent hit $105  prompting traders to speculate on a technical bounce.

Full article 

In summary, output remains unchanged amidst constrained budgets of Middle Eastern countries, and Libya is coming back online fast.

VIENNA (Reuters) – OPEC oil producers on Wednesday sealed their first new output agreement in three years in a deal that settles a 6-month-old argument over supply policy firmly in Saudi Arabia’s favor.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed a target of 30 million barrels daily, ratifying current production near 3-year highs. It did not discuss individual national quotas.

The deal vindicates Saudi Arabia after its proposal to raise output in June to stem rising prices was rejected by price hawks led by Iran, Algeria and Venezuela.

“For the Saudis it’s a fantastic decision,” said Jamie Webster of Washington consultancy PFC Energy.

Saudi said it pumped 10 million barrels a day last month, 25 percent above its old OPEC quota, in what Gulf delegates said was a demonstration of strength to the price hawks ahead of the meeting.

In theory the agreement caps output for all 12 OPEC members for the first half of 2012 at levels that should permit a modest rebuilding of lean global inventories.

“We’re not going to bypass it, we’re going to adhere to it,” promised OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri of the new supply limit. “Saudi Arabia will abide by this decision for sure.”

That will depend on whether or not Saudi and its Gulf Arab allies decide to ease back supply as post-civil war Libya heads towards full production or keep the taps open to drive oil below $100 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia did not allay doubts about its intentions.

“If Libya increases it doesn’t necessarily mean Saudi will cut,” said Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. “We don’t react to that, we react to market demand,” he said.

Oil analysts warned that without defined individual national quotas, leakage above the new limit was very possible.

“Someone has to cut back to accommodate Libya, that has to be done,” said analyst Lawrence Eagles of JP Morgan. “As always with OPEC the proof will be in the pudding. How closely will they stick to the new limit?”

“The whole organization has to be at 30 million so if someone goes up somebody else should come down. But it’s like anything when you divide responsibility — it often ends up falling through the cracks,” said Webster of PFC.

Those concerns helped undermine oil prices. London Brent eased more than $3 to near $106 a barrel, down from a year-high $127 in April. U.S. crude fell over $4 to near $96.

Rising supply from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab neighbors Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates has kept a leash on oil prices as Riyadh seeks to help nurture global growth by keeping fuel costs under control.

Can you say $80 pb

Currently up 3.6% @ 14.89

Gold currently down $91 @ $1,571 

Expectations for oil inventories was 1.33 mm barrels

+1.7 mm distilates

+1.94 mm barrels of gasoline

commodities get slammed as the world reaches for liquidity.

Full article

+6.5% to $15.25.

No. Ticker 3-month Return Watchlist
1 UNG -27.82 Raw Commodities Index
2 SLV -24.96 Raw Commodities Index
3 NIB -23.68 Raw Commodities Index
4 BAL -23.09 Raw Commodities Index
5 PGM -20.06 Raw Commodities Index
6 JO -18.84 Raw Commodities Index
7 FUE -18.76 Raw Commodities Index
8 CORN -18.56 Raw Commodities Index
9 JJT -17.60 Raw Commodities Index
10 SGG -16.55 Raw Commodities Index
11 URA -15.91 Raw Commodities Index
12 JJC -15.75 Raw Commodities Index
13 JJN -15.70 Raw Commodities Index
14 KOL -15.54 Raw Commodities Index
15 DBA -14.32 Raw Commodities Index
16 LIT -12.34 Raw Commodities Index
17 PALL -11.56 Raw Commodities Index
18 GLD -11.14 Raw Commodities Index
19 UGA -2.78 Raw Commodities Index
20 COW -1.14 Raw Commodities Index
21 USO 10.76 Raw Commodities Index

ERY is my dream vehicle

Oil is up$2.13 @ $99.79

A head fake or real ? The CRB index is topping out and would suggest prices retreat until clear growth and consumption increase are to be had. I’ll take my chances in ERY.

The only problem that is foreseeable is a war with Iran. I pray this will not happen…and not because I’m short.

Full article

Agricultural output and earnings estimates were cut to reflect potential slowdown in the global economy.

Full article

Oil is up $0.58 @ $98.35

Read here:

Argentina could be nearing a shale oil and gas boom similar to the one that transformed the US energy landscape as former state monopoly YPF eyes another 1bn barrel discovery adjacent to a Patagonian field whose reserves were more than six times bigger than thought.

YPF has almost finished drilling a 502 sq km area just north of the discovery zone and believes full results will be equally vast. Two of the three wells are in production and “the yield is exactly the same,” says Tomás García Blanco, YPF’s executive director for upstream.

Asked if this heralded another 1bn barrel discovery, Mr García Blanco says: “Yes. But until the third well is drilled … I would like to be cautious. We hope to know by the end of the year or January 2012.”

The group, which is 57.43 per cent owned by Spain’s Repsol, announced in November that it had discovered 927m barrels of oil equivalent in a 428 sq km zone of the Vaca Muerta (“Dead Cow”) formation in south-western Argentina – more than six times higher than its initial estimate in May of 150m barrels. The discovery is three-quarters oil and one-quarter gas, it says.

That, Mr García Blanco notes, is based on “conservative” estimates that only 4 per cent of all the hydrocarbons will be extracted. Some in the US believe recovery rates of 8 per cent or even 15 per cent may be possible in time – something that will lead to eye-popping estimates of the potential for shale worldwide.

Argentina has some of the world’s biggest and best-quality reserves of shale hydrocarbons, which are trapped thousands of metres underground and released by fracturing rocks using high-pressured water, sand and chemicals. The US Energy Information Administration this year ranked Argentina third globally in terms of technically recoverable shale gas resources with 774,000bn cubic feet.

VIENNA (Reuters) – OPEC began negotiations on Monday on a new production deal aimed at healing the rift caused by a bad-tempered failure to agree an output target when it last met in June.

At stake for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at its Wednesday meeting is a credible output policy heading into a year when sluggish global economy could undermine fuel demand and bring down oil prices that now are over $107 a barrel.

“I think they have to agree this time because they need to be credible,” said former Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil ahead of the meeting of the 12-member cartel that pumps more than half the world’s oil exports.

Without a collective supply target, OPEC members with spare capacity – Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies – will remain free to pump at will.

Leading producer Saudi Arabia made clear its intention to keep oil prices under control, saying last week it was producing a surprisingly high 10 million barrels daily of crude, much more than estimated by most in the oil industry.

That pleased consumer nations worried about the impact of oil prices on global growth.

“OECD stock levels are at historically low levels, plus we are in very fragile economic recovery situation,” said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency.

But the Saudi position is worrying for the price hawks in OPEC like Iran, Algeria and Venezuela who want to keep oil above $100.

Iran wants a commitment from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf OPEC producers that they cut back to accommodate the restoration of Libyan supply.

“Should OPEC’s present output continue, with the increased production of Libya and Iraq next year we would witness an increase in stockpiling and a drop in crude oil prices,” said Iran’s OPEC representative Mohammad Ali Khatibi.

Quotes on precious metals