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Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

The IMF Cuts Global Growth Estimates Due to European Sovereign Debt Woes

“The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts as the euro area’s debt crisis intensifies and warned of even slower expansion unless officials in the U.S. and Europe address threats to their economies.

The world economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, the slowest since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said today, compared with July predictions of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013. The Washington-based lender now sees “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown, with a one-in-six chance of growth slipping below 2 percent.

“A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a more lasting component,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report. “The answer depends on whether European and U.S. policy makers deal proactively with their major short-term economic challenges.”

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World’s Most Accurate Forex Analyst: Dollar to Strengthen Despite QE 3

“The world’s most-accurate foreign- exchange strategists say the dollar will strengthen even as the Federal Reserve debases it, unlike the previous two rounds of economic stimulus, when cash injections weakened the currency.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s $40 billion-a-month of bond purchases will leave a stronger currency in 2013, say nine of the 10 forecasters with the lowest margins of error in the six quarters ended Sept. 28 as measured by Bloomberg. Wells Fargo & Co. and Westpac Banking Corp., which tied for most-accurate, expect little damage from efforts to stimulate the economy and the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases scheduled for next year.”

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The World Bank Cuts Growth Estimates for the Pac Rim on China Slowdown

“The World Bank said policy makers in Asia’s emerging economies have room to provide more fiscal stimulus as China’s slowdown drags the region’s growth to an estimated 11-year low in 2012.

Growth in developing East Asia, which excludes Japan and India, will probably ease to 7.2 percent from 8.3 percent in 2011, the Washington-based lender said in a report today. That is the slowest pace since 2001, according to World Bank data, and lower than a forecast in May of 7.6 percent.

The International Monetary Fund is set to reduce its global forecast for this year tomorrow at an annual meeting in Tokyowhere officials will tackle a slowdown triggered by Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. Central banks are stepping up efforts to protect the worldwide recovery, with the U.S. expanding monetary easing, the Bank of Japan boosting its asset purchases and the Bank of Korea forecast to cut interest ratesthis week.

“On the monetary side, interest rates are already quite low and liquidity is relatively high in many other countries,” Bert Hofman, World Bank chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “On the fiscal side, there is clear scope, deficits are relatively low and debts are not very high.”

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$BAC: Gold Could Hit $3,000

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is officially forecasting gold prices to hit $2,400 an ounce, according to its latest forecasts, but one analyst at the bank says prices could climb even higher to around $3,000.

Gold is currently trading just shy of $1,750 an ounce and has been gaining on the coattails of central bank stimulus measures, in the United States especially, which weaken paper currencies to spur growth and make hard assets like gold attractive hedges.

“We remain secular bulls on gold. Key chart and uptrend supports between $1,600 and $1,400 have held and we have viewed $1,550-1,500 as a good area to buy gold,” BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Stephen Suttmeier wrote in a note to clients, according to Business Insider.

“[T]he secular bull market for gold points to a stronger rally to $2,050-$2,300 and up to $3,000 longer term. The top of the rising channel from mid-2005 is near $2,375 and reaches the $3,000 area by early 2014.”

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Fitch Lowers Global Growth Estimates

“Fitch Ratings has pared back its forecasts for global GDP growth to 2.1%, citing “persistent weakness” in the global recovery. That is down from Fitch’s June view of 2.2%. For 2013, the forecast was reduced to 2.6% from 2.8%.

Fitch lowered its 2013 GDP growth expectations for the United States to 2.3%, but kept its 2012 forecast at 2.2%. Persistently high unemployment and the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy are expected to continue to challenge the U.S. economy.”

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Axa Outlook Reduced to Negative by Fitch on Lower Rates

Axa SA (CS), France’s largest insurer, had its outlook lowered by Fitch Ratings to negative asearnings are pressured by bond yields at near-record lows.

The outlook for the Paris-based company was cut from stable on “concerns about the group’s ability to improve profitability, notably in the context of low interest rates,” the ratings firm said yesterday in a statement.

Falling yields for fixed-income securities have hurt insurers’ investment income as proceeds from maturing bonds are reinvested at lower rates. The yield on the 10-year government bond in France has declined to 2.26 percent from about 3.14 percent at the end of last year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is at 1.69 percent, down from 1.88 percent.”

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S&P Cuts Sony to BBB

Sony Corp. (6758), reeling from four straight annual losses, had its credit rating lowered one level by Standard & Poor’s because of concerns about an earnings recovery by the Japanese consumer-electronics maker.

The company’s long-term ratings were lowered to BBB, S&P’s second-lowest investment grade, from BBB+, the ratings company said in a statement today. The outlook was set at negative, reflecting a view that ratings may be cut again in the absence of “solid signs of recovery” in Sony’s credit quality within a year, S&P said.”

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