The Art and Science of Timing Decisions

“Remember Malcolm Gladwell’s book called Blink? Gladwell argued that we should trust our snap judgments, using examples from science, advertising, medicine and music.  These examples showed that spontaneous decisions were as good as, and usually better than, carefully considered ones.

In Wait: The Art and Science of Delay, Frank Partnoy takes the exact opposite point of view.  After interviewing more than 100 experts from different fields and examining several hundred studies, Partnoy claims that most people don’t take enough time to make decisions.  Using a Gladwell-esque style, Partnoy argues that the best decision makers – premier athletes, expert investors, and even popular comedians – hone the ability to wait as long as possible before deciding or acting.”

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Reports of missile tests in Iran  and a possible attempt to close the Straights of Hormuz have oil ripping tits this morning.

Quote

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYoh7XhYe1k 450 300]

Gapping up

MKTS +37.2%, GMXR +10.4%, ROSE +4.1%, SDRL +3.3%, BCS +2.1%, RIO +1.9%,

MT +1.9%, RA +1.5%, SLV +1.4%, TS +1.2%, TOT +1.1%, NSPH +14.3%,  DEI +2%,

Gapping down

FIRE -1.7%, MSFT -1.2%, BP -1.2%, ARO -1.1%,  IM -2.3% , CELL -1.6%,  RIMM -0.9%,

ANH -0.9%

ADTN, LNT, AEP, AMLN, BCS, BRCM, EXPD, HLS, HES, MRO, IM, IDCC, INTX, LL, NTGR, RIMM, STO, SUP, VMED, QCOM, INTC, BBBY, AAPL,

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In Play ,

On the Wires 

Apparently O’Neill has passed some charts out to fellow co-workers within $GS. The charts tell an interesting story of how the bears may continue to get filleted.

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“Boeing Co. (BA) said growth in industry deliveries will slow in the next 20 years as demand wanes for jumbo jets and freighters, with the global fleet expanding at less than a fifth of the rate predicted in 2011.

Airlines will take 34,000 new planes valued at $4.5 trillion through 2031, Chicago-based Boeing said today. That’s a 1.5 percent increase from a 33,500-jet estimate last year, when the planemaker raised its two-decade forecast by 8.4 percent.”

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“Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is taking a $6.2 billion writedown for almost the entire amount it paid for Internet-advertising company AQuantive Inc., signaling that its online division will perform worse than the company projected.”

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“BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s largest asset manager, will buy Swiss Re Ltd. (SREN)’s Private Equity Partners AG for an undisclosed amount to extend its investments into infrastructure.

Swiss Re’s $7.5 billion European private equity and infrastructure fund of funds unit will be integrated with BlackRock’s existing business, the New York-based firm said today in an e-mailed statement. Those funds include a “significant” commitment from Swiss Re.”

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“Oil rebounded in New York on signs that central banks from Europe to China may ease monetary policy to spur economic growth and speculation sanctions against Iran will curb supply.

Futures gained as much as 1.1 percent, reversing earlier losses. The European Central Bank is forecast to cut interest rates this week to help curb the debt crisis, while a state- owned newspaper in China said the time is right to increase liquidity in the banking sector. An embargo targeting Iranian oil exports will probably have a bigger affect than previously estimated, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.”

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Gold bugs are sure of more money printing in the U.S. and elsewhere as global markets show continued weakness.

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“Intel Corp., (INTC) the world’s largest maker of computer chips, will seek to overturn a record European Union 1.06 billion-euro ($1.34 billion) antitrust fine, arguing regulators withheld evidence and failed to give the company the chance to fully defend itself.

Intel will ask the EU General Court in Luxembourg at a hearing starting today to throw out the European Commission’s ruling that its use of rebates violated EU antitrust rules. Intel said the EU failed to use mitigating evidence or to allow it respond to all of the allegations.”

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Should people go to jail or will we just let it slide ?

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“Australia’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged after cuts in the previous two months as domestic employment strengthens and the local currency’s biggest gain in eight months helps contain inflation.

Governor Glenn Stevens and his board left the overnight cash-rate target at a 2 1/2-year low of 3.5 percent, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a statement in Sydney. The decision was predicted by all 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.”

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“European stocks rose and Asian shares headed for their biggest five-day gain this year on expectations that central banks in Europe and China will ease monetary policy to spur economic growth. Commodities climbed to a one-month high as oil and corn advanced.

The Stoxx Europe 600 (SXXP) Index added 0.2 percent as of 8:05 a.m. in London, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP)gained 0.8 percent. The S&P GSCI Index of commodities rose 0.6 percent. The won and the Australian dollar traded near their highest levels in two months against the U.S. dollar. Credit-default swaps for Asia ex-Japan gained for the first time in six days. Barclays Plc fell as much as 4.4 percent in London as Robert Diamond stepped down as the chief executive officer.”

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World Markets

Currencies

Commodities

USD Libor

Euribor

Yields for Italy, Spain, France,  and Germany …

Either Paul Krugman is an idiot, or he believes you are an idiot, or perhaps both. Here is another instance of the Krugmaniac receiving an old fashioned internets beat down.

Read the article here.

And by ridiculous, he means cheap.

Value-meister Cooperman seeking out overlooked stocks; plenty to choose from right now.

Read the article here.