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Monthly Archives: July 2011

Let It Be Known

Let it be known that there is not enough reporting or real journalism left in this here country….that is if you pay any mind to mainstream.

It boggles the mind; that is to say I’m still dumbfounded over mainstream.

Full article

Got to learn how to

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WTF

This is certainly the second time i have read of such a tale, but i seem to recall more accounts like this over the past year. Just never thought to post such an atrocity.

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Dem girls be saying

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Beyond a default: Catastrophic calculations

It’s easy to understand why the government will have more trouble borrowing if it fails to pay its debts. It’s a bit harder to see why ordinary Americans, the city of Pittsburgh, hospitals in Iowa, or medium-size corporations will have more trouble borrowing.

But they will.

And their trouble borrowing is the primary way a default, or even something too close to it for the market’s comfort, could deal a body blow to the economy.

It all comes back to U.S. Treasury bonds, which are the foundation of almost all other financial products — the base of the global financial pyramid.

If the federal government’s borrowing costs rise, so will everyone else’s. Mortgages rates will jump, car loans will be harder to come by, universities won’t be able to float bonds, cities won’t be able to fund themselves.

Treasuries are supposed to set the rate of “riskless return” — the price of loaning someone money and knowing, with perfect certainty, that they’ll pay you back, with interest. So when lenders decide how much to charge, they start with the riskless rate and then add to it to cover the risk that you won’t pay them back, and the inconvenience of having to wait for you to pay them back.

FULL STORY HERE

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The Debt Crisis: If Treasury Bonds Aren’t Safe, What Is?

How can you lower your portfolio’s risk in a world of rolling government-debt crises? Start by taking a deep breath. Then, see if you need to do some tinkering—but not too much.

With Europe in turmoil, investors are so eager for a “safe haven” that this week they were willing to accept a return of only 0.01% a month to hold Treasury bills. Such yields on short-term Treasurys are barely a sliver above their all-time lows, even as Uncle Sam’s own debts may be teetering on the brink of default.

INVESTOR

Christophe Vorlet

Fears are rampant that the U.S. may lose its triple-A credit rating, that the economy will stay stagnant, that inflation will eventually surge and that the dollar will wither. Lately, U.S. Treasurys and the dollar have rallied mainly because other nations are in even more of a mess.

Amid such uncertainty, you can’t reduce one set of risks without raising others. If, for instance, you buy gold, you lower the risk that a collapsing dollar will crush your wealth. But you incur other hazards by paying all-time-high prices for an asset that generates no investment income, lacks intrinsic value and has a weak record of combating inflation. Other hedges carry other risks and trade-offs.

FULL ARTICLE

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Best Currency Forecasters Say Dollar Slump Coming to an End as Index Falls

The best currency forecasters say the dollar’s 12 percent slide over the past year is coming to an end as Europe’s deepening debt crisis discourages bets against the world’s reserve currency.

Led by Schneider Foreign Exchange Ltd., the five most- accurate firms during the six quarters through June 30 as measured by Bloomberg see the dollar trading at $1.42 per euro on average by year-end, compared with $1.43 on July 8. Against the yen, they predict the greenback will rise to 83 from 80.64.

While Moody’s Investors Service added to Europe’s woes last week by lowering Portugal’s credit ranking to junk, the dollar is regaining its status as a haven after the worst performance over the past year among 10 developed-market currencies based on Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar is up 5.9 percent from a 17-month low on May 4 against the euro.

FULL STORY AT BLOOMBERG

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Why Europe Is Really Freaked Out Over A Greek Default

European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Triche...

“The constraints imposed by market forces [on government deficits inside a single-currency union] might either be too slow and weak, or too sudden and disruptive.”
– The
Delors Committee report on European monetary union, getting it exactly right in 1989

GREEK BONDS have lost one-half to three-quarters of their face value. Six national strikes have all ended in violence already this year. In the three months to April, public investment spending fell 42% from the start of 2010, but total spending still rose – and tax revenues sank – forcing the budget deficit still wider as the economy shrank 5.5% year-on-year.

What to do? Greece’s debt cannot be serviced, much less repaid. Everything says default – stop paying, write it down or write it off, with or without the lenders’ consent. Default is certain, and history says it would be better for creditors if the restructuring came before Greece misses a payment.

Uruguay’s “pre-emptive” restructuring of 2003, for instance, cost its creditors 8% of their money, according to an IMF study. Argentina’s “post-default” restructuring of 2005, in contrast, cost the affected bondholders some 75% of their original investment.

FULL ARTICLE AT FORBES

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Bank Stocks Continue to Sink

Shares of the largest banks are dropping once again, with the banking index off by 0.7%.

Notable underperformers include GHL, C and UBS.

On the flipside, shares of insolvent Irish banks are soaring, with IRE and AIB up 34% and 21% respectively.

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Crack Spreads Are Maintaining Highs

321 spreads are still above $34 today, slightly off. It’s worth noting the notable outperformance in the share prices of the refiners, like HFC, ALJ, DK and WNR as of late.

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Today’s ETF Winners and Losers

No. Ticker % Change
1 FCG 6.11
2 XOP 5.58
3 ERX 5.25
4 IEO 4.84
5 DIG 4.71
6 SDK 3.24
7 DRN 3.19
8 SGG 3.00
9 XES 2.73
10 YINN 2.69
11 OIH 2.59
12 PXJ 2.59
13 VDE 2.54
14 PXE 2.48
15 UCO 2.48
16 IEZ 2.47
17 AGQ 2.46
18 UNG 2.44
19 IYE 2.38
20 XLE 2.38
21 NUGT 2.32
22 DCNG 2.32
23 ROM 2.28
24 IGE 2.26
25 TYH 2.14

———————-
No. Ticker % Change
1 ERY -5.19
2 DUG -4.83
3 BAL -4.63
4 YANG -3.20
5 CTNN -3.18
6 ZSL -2.61
7 DUST -2.58
8 TYP -2.53
9 SCO -2.48
10 REW -2.43
11 DTO -2.21
12 EWV -2.02
13 QID -1.97
14 SMN -1.88
15 DRV -1.70
16 SQQQ -1.68
17 CVOL -1.64
18 PPR -1.64
19 SRS -1.63
20 CIK -1.55
21 PCN -1.49
22 UBT -1.44
23 TMF -1.43
24 RUSL -1.39
25 RETL -1.31

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Flash: Obama Goes After Corporate Jet Owners Again

During a press conference regarding the debt ceiling today, President Obama took shots at “billionaires” and “corporate jet owners” again. My guess, he is simply hating on job creators, especially those who thumb their noses at union led airlines.

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Today’s Biggest Winners

No. Ticker % Change
1 BQI 57.50
2 ICGN 31.40
3 OSN 18.54
4 ROYL 15.14
5 MAG 10.98
6 SCEI 10.64
7 IRE 10.34
8 PETD 9.71
9 RCON 9.69
10 CMM 9.32
11 LEI 8.86
12 MVIS 8.70
13 GOOG 8.45
14 CYDE 8.41
15 YRCW 8.26
16 SFY 8.24
17 MSHL 8.19
18 GEDU 8.07
19 PXD 7.97
20 SM 7.95
21 COG 7.86
22 RRC 7.84
23 LNG 7.76
24 JVA 7.73
25 AONE 7.7

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One Foot Over the Border

Funny how the markets can rally in the face of all the bad news. Guess the power of debasement is greater than you think.

A bearshitters point of view.

Full article

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