MARKETS SET TO PLUNGE — CORONAVIRUS FEARS

The COVID-19 was a stunning success. It’s spreading like wild fire and longs are getting HOT, ROLLED, and STEELED this morning. Investment advisors around the country, fat and coddled by a decade plus of uninterrupted decadence, are about to feel what it’s like to be in a BEAR MARKET.

Nothing can stop the selling. Not even Cramer knows what to do.

So where do we go from here?

Lower, much much lower.

Businesses have stopped selling things. Loss projections at the airlines are going to be in the order of $113b. Next up, targeted loans aka bailouts, for airlines and cruise ship companies. Retailers will begin to layoff workers and the recession will take its hold. The only question is, will this fear last long enough to do permanent damage or will it pass quickly enough to resume our retarded Fed induced buying bonanza?

Truth is, I don’t know. I can only tell you what’s happening now. For a much deeper concern, let’s keep a close eye on credit markets, particularly SRLN for leveraged loans and HYG for junk bonds. The 10yr bond is 0.94% and that’s not normal.

Dow futures are -722. Welcome to the best of times.

Listen to me. You listened to CNBC and FOMO’d your way into SPY calls today. Inside of 12 hours you’re going to be dead, financially speaking.

The CoronaVirus is ravaging the lands, posting up BIG numbers in Japan and around the globe. Here in the states, the retarded state of NJ just got its first contestant. Everywhere I look shit is closing down. Nothing is open. Both bread and water are scarce and soon people will be dropping dead in the streets due to affliction. We have ourselves a BIG LEAGUE depression en route — because nothing can stop the scourge that is the Wuhnan Bat-Soup Virus.

The death rate is of an industrial nature, presently at 8% in the US — 3.4% globally. If you compared it to the flu that is because you’re an idiot. The flu kill rate is just 0.1%, literally nothing. It’s God’s way of taking away the chaff. This here virus is murdering strong men and women — people who are virile and long cocked.

Dow futures are off by 300. I felt like a pie faced clown today because I held onto SOXS and FAZ, when I should’ve felt grateful for the opportune to buy more lower. Reason being, good sirs, this market is on the precipice of a fatal blow to the scrotum — the brand of line drive that shoots rockets through your nuts and into your stomach — leaving you by the side of the curb getting spit on by the neighborhood children.

GOODNIGHT.

The old “never fade the Fed” rule applied today and stocks fucking catapulted more than 1,000 points. At least it was over +1,000 at the time of this blog. My feelings are mixed. But I want to take this opportunity to point out that I had planned for this eventuality.

Let me explain.

I cannot trust myself. I know my personality and know the second I see a silver lining or a narrative to exploit, I go balls deep long into that. The downside to that is when it ends, I get fucked a little. Lucky for me, my recent foray into plague stocks have been so extreme, so superfluous, I still stand before you with an account +80% for the year. But still, with the market +1,000, my trading account lost money.

So is that it? Where is the win?

My trading account is only 25% of my overall account. 75% of my money is managed by the Exodus Quant, which systemically balances into a portfolio of stocks geared towards alpha. How is said portfolio doing today?

UP 450BPS!!!

Hence the term, and I mean this in them most incredulous way possible: “The Fly” wins again, even when you think he’s lost his mind and profit.

As for my trading account — what more can I say? It is 70% cash, 10% short via inverses, 15% long in a Nitric Oxide play eagerly awaiting news, virus related. It’s not well, but I will mend the wounds and get back to winning again soon.

Until then, be well and always remember to give thanks and praise to our market overlords and try to avoid betting against Le Fly’s mechanical brain. Exodus wins too, again.

Yesterday I was so smart. I had accurately called the move lower and had a 9% gain in SOXS and 4% in FAZ. Then Super Joe Biden stoked a massive heart attack rally and I looked at it with a certain degree of skepticism — because I was thinking my own book. I bore witness to my stocks and waited for them to recover and they did. Then I got greedy, sat and watched as market re-ignited intra-day, and fucking poleaxed me.

The results for today’s closed trades.

(OPGN -7.2%)
(VIR -8%)
(AHPI -9.7%)
NNVC +1%

Bear in mind, those were all gains. What have I become?

As Wall Street glistens today with bountiful profits, I am literally bogged down in the mud, cavorting with the pigs, sloppy tits and down.

Truth is, we’re not breaking out. I know the bad trade here is to cover my shorts. I know the dumbest trade I can do is FOMO and get long.

Look here.

75% cash, looking for a break, a morsel of last week’s winnings to improve my spirit.

The stock is already up 65% the last two weeks, so obviously it’s getting play. I am long from $10 and again today at $11.34 and only mention it now because the volume hasn’t exploded yet and I do think it goes higher in this craze.

This was published in 2005.

Inhibition of SARS-coronavirus infection in vitro by S-nitroso-N-acetylpenicillamine, a nitric oxide donor compound

Another study

Inhalation of Nitric Oxide in the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: A Rescue Trial in Beijing

Inhalation of nitric oxide (NO) improved arterial oxygenation and enabled the reduction of inspired oxygen therapy and airway pressure support in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In addition, chest radiography showed decreased spread or density of lung infiltrates, and the physiological effects remained after termination of inhaled NO therapy. These findings suggest not only a pulmonary vasodilator effect of inhaled NO, but also an effect on SARS.

What does Beyond Air do?

Beyond Air, Inc., a clinical-stage medical device and biopharmaceutical company, develops nitric oxide (NO) delivery systems to treat respiratory tract infections and other diseases. Its NO delivery systems are used for the treatment of pulmonary hypertension of the newborn, bronchiolitis, and nontuberculous mycobacteria. The company was formerly known as AIT Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Beyond Air, Inc. in June 2019. The company is based in Garden City, New York

Tomorrow is their first ever analyst day. The agenda.

• Beyond Air’s first-ever analyst day, to be held March 5, will highlight the value of its LungFit nitric oxide (NO) platform and the potential of its clinical pipeline.
• LungFit PH (pulmonary hypertension) Pre Market Approval (PMA) submission is expected to be completed around the end of April and is on track for a 4Q20 launch.
• LungFit BRO (bronchiolitis) pilot study enrollment is expected to be completed by the end of February with data reported around midyear.
• LungFit NTM (non-tuberculous mycobacteria) proof of concept (POC) study will be initiated to evaluate its at-home program around midyear.
• Coronavirus (COVID-19) highlights the need for novel therapies for the treatment of bacterial and viral lung infections.

Perhaps it flops and I send up chalking up a virus bowser. But maybe it doesn’t. Either way, this narrative makes for interesting trades.

LONG NITRIC OXIDE.

The narrative woven this morning is Joe Biden crushes the primaries; therefore, the socialist Sanders isn’t going to ruin our wonderful system of capitalism. Please and give me a fucking break. If the Trump admin has taught us anything at all it is the executive branch is powerless and vapid. Should Sanders win, none of his insane policies will pass as law, only the moderate ones. That’s the way this system of government works.

Futures are higher by 700 because people wanted a reason to buy, following yesterday’s -750 debacle. It’s as simple as that.

My sole reservation in all this, if I might be so bold, is the treasury market. The 10yr is still under 1.00 and is actually lower in yield this morning by 2bps. We need to see some sell off in the bond market to make me feel really great about stocks. The coronavirus business will of course pass and the global death rate of 3.4% is indeed scary, if you’re a fucking child and get scare easily.

I couldn’t care less if I got the virus or not. I’d like to avoid it if I could, but I will not go out of my way to avoid people and touching things. I will not wear a mask and will only hole myself inside should I contract this horrible horrible virus. That being said, we’ve all seen the movies and we all think zombies are real, so everyone is panicked. You can thank Hollywood for all this hysteria. I’m not a flu-bros and for third world shit holes, the coronavirus is a real threat. But to shut down global trade and cause a fucking stock market meltdown seems excessive.

My only hope is to get back to a sense of normalcy and get in quick enough and early enough to enjoy the bounce back.

Presently I an bogged down in cash, shorts, and virus plays. I will lose some money early on — but hope to make it up throughout the day with some quick witted trades.

It was a big mistake and maybe something else will happen soon to negate it, such as ECB action or some coordinated event. But the Fed cut of 50bps today came as a surprise and traders sold the news and then the news manifested itself horribly and BOGGED out stocks.

I had positioned long into stocks yesterday, a sundry of quality names and I was happy with them. But after seeing the response to the Fed cut, I sold them all. Having established a bias, I then bought SOXS and FAZ — shorting semis and banks. I also took two intra day trades, AHPI +27%, and APT +16%. But it wasn’t all roses, lots of set backs — such as JNUG -12%. Here is the run down.

(BPMX -7%)
FNGU +7.9%
(CPHI -16.9%)
NKE +2.25%
UBER +2.4%
(STMP -3.3%)
(SIVB -3.3%)
(RCL -0.5%)
(IIPR -9.5%)
CMG +0.8%
CHDN +2%
(BIOC -6.8%)
(BIOC -25%)
AXP – wash
AAL +1.6%
(WYNN -0.9%)
AHPI +27%
APT +16.7%
(JNUG -12%)
(CODX -7.2%)

Net net, I came out a winner. I ride into tomorrow very heavy cash, short, and long a handful of virus stocks, which haven’t been behaving right — but I keep going back to the well — because addiction. My sense is this has to pass. But will it pass quick enough to stem an already tenuous tide? I mean, Japan is leveling into its 5th recession since 2008 and Italian GDP is bound to be dreadful — because the virus is affecting an area of Italy responsible for 50% of GDP.

The story of the day isn’t market action — but bond action. The 10yr yield plunged to 0.93% before recovering to 1.00%. While this might be good for Trump’s buddies in real estate, it speaks volumes about the deflationary vortex we’re entering. Moreover, the deflation trade will ravage through WTI, which in turn could place $2 trillion of credit at risk. All hypothetical now. Every credit scare has been proven to be wrong, so I won’t obsess on it.

First things first, check your emotions at the door and trade the tape you see, but do it small — because the whips are serious and the volatility a killer.

Funny how I was just praising them and now I hate them again.

ALRIGHT ALRIGHT ALRIGHT.

They didn’t have to step in with a 50bps cut. They probably succumbed to Trump pressure, once again, and fucked themselves and the market. This looks like weakness.

“The coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity,” the Fed said in a statement. “In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate.”

I know, it’s just the flu bro. More people died in that tornado last night than the virus. I know. But you know what? Fuck yourself. The coronavirus is a legit risk and just because people aren’t dying in the billions doesn’t mean we should ignore it. The death rate in Iran for it is 3.3%. I know, illuminati. Fuck yourself. The point I am making is it matters because humans have declared it to matter. Ok? The affects of this virus has shaken confidence to its core and that is translating into SHARPLY LOWER growth projections. As such, and this goes without saying, I am out.

We might rally, but I don’t think we will. I sold out of all the positions I had put on yesterday, in many cases small profits and losses. I have two positions left and a 90% cash horde. My goal is to execute the perfect trade. With that in mind, back to work.

A lot of jawboning, zero action. This is the perfect play for the Fed. Had they come out on Sunday with a surprise rate cut, it might’ve spooked markets. Instead they issued statements, back-channeled nonsense via Steve Liesman of CNBC, and made a lot of threats. The net result was a monstrous rally. Now should that dissipate and we head back lower into the depth again, you can forget you ever read this.

But for now, it’s good. In about a fortnight, they’ll take their scheduled meeting and cut then, like gentlemen.

The G-7 is out with a message of comfort this morning.

Officials of most of the world’s largest economies pledged a united front in the battle against the novel coronavirus scare but offered no specific actions they would take in a statement issued Tuesday morning.

“Given the potential impacts of COVID-19 on global growth, we reaffirm our commitment to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks,” the G-7 statement said.

More nothing, but who cares? Futures dumped out a little, but nothing too grave or serious. We have oil higher, gold higher, bond yields higher. I surmise we’ll eventually get higher stocks too. My bias has switched, for now, and I am bullish.

UPDATE: Apparently Robinhood forgot to account for leap year. Please don’t be true.

Hey @RobinhoodApp did someone forget to add isleap() to your python module? Imagine losing thousands of dollars because someone didn’t code for the leap year. It’s looking for 3/03 data and throwing errors out the ass. #robinhoodapp pic.twitter.com/t907LANcBo

— Jtech63 (@jtech63) March 2, 2020

Let me start with my moves. I had doubled down in SOXS this morning — caught a rip and sold a little after 3pm. My thesis was simple. If the rally could hold past 3pm, we will sprint into the close. Expanding on that, I believed firmly that economically sensitive stocks would be the play — the areas of the economy most affected by recent shutdowns. The big move, in my estimation, is to the upside in those areas. HIGH RISK — BIG BALL’D plays.

So I sold SOXS and went long. In between that, I caught some intraday whips in two names.

HTBX +25.4%
(SOXS -6.6%)
SOXS +3.9%
CODX +10.2%

No big deal. All my shit is verified by a thousand strong in Exodus. Come trade with me and bear witness.

What did I buy?

Airlines, eateries, cruise ships, motherfucking casinos.

I reserved 25% cash and also went long 3x FANG 600 points ago.

See me.

In other news, all of the fucking morons at WallStreetBets got ultimately bogged out today — due to their beloved Robinhood app going down ALL FUCKING DAY. The rumors are severe. But this is an inexcusable occurrence and people are pissed.

Our system is experiencing downtime issues that are affecting all functionalities on our platform. We are aware of the issue and are working to have all systems up and running as soon as we can. We’re so sorry this is happening!

— Robinhood Help (@AskRobinhood) March 2, 2020

It was a miraculous end of day ramp. Up until then, the rally was somewhat milquetoast — but the jungle juices got flowing and traders King Kong’d into the close — absolutely poleaxing those who overstood their welcome short.

The Fly won again. Don’t act surprised.