Listen to me. You listened to CNBC and FOMO’d your way into SPY calls today. Inside of 12 hours you’re going to be dead, financially speaking.
The CoronaVirus is ravaging the lands, posting up BIG numbers in Japan and around the globe. Here in the states, the retarded state of NJ just got its first contestant. Everywhere I look shit is closing down. Nothing is open. Both bread and water are scarce and soon people will be dropping dead in the streets due to affliction. We have ourselves a BIG LEAGUE depression en route — because nothing can stop the scourge that is the Wuhnan Bat-Soup Virus.
The death rate is of an industrial nature, presently at 8% in the US — 3.4% globally. If you compared it to the flu that is because you’re an idiot. The flu kill rate is just 0.1%, literally nothing. It’s God’s way of taking away the chaff. This here virus is murdering strong men and women — people who are virile and long cocked.
Dow futures are off by 300. I felt like a pie faced clown today because I held onto SOXS and FAZ, when I should’ve felt grateful for the opportune to buy more lower. Reason being, good sirs, this market is on the precipice of a fatal blow to the scrotum — the brand of line drive that shoots rockets through your nuts and into your stomach — leaving you by the side of the curb getting spit on by the neighborhood children.
GOODNIGHT.
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nah .. it was over an 80% upside day
doom’n gloom takes a break for a while and perhaps shows up in April and will rise once again like the prodigal son
This lady at work has a trip planned to northern Italy this week, turns out to be the same location of the major outbreak and quarantines. She is adamant that she is going, says she will wear a mask and not touch anything. Are you fucking kidding me. I hope she gets quarantined indefinitely upon arrival.
I’ll make this simple:
March VIX futures at 6pm, Feb 17: 15.33
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 18: 15.78
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 19: 15.38
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 20: 16.17
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 21: 17.08
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 24: 20.10
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 25: 21.92
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 26: 22.52
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 27: 26.67
March VIX futures at 4pm, Feb 28: 26.12
March VIX futures at 4pm, March 2: 26.12
March VIX futures at 4pm, March 3: 29.17
March VIX futures at 4pm, March 4: 27.48
March VIX futures at 10pm, March 4: 28.42
March VIX futures at 7am, March 5: 29.78
BTW, VIX futures: never hit 30 last week (only the spot VIX did).
Only old people die. This is how the Illuminati solve health care.
Trump, Schumer, Pelosi, Clyburn, Sanders, Warren, McConnel…
Maybe God is in favor of term limits, too?
I’m predicting 600-1000 US infection detected by Monday, based on the current rate of increase amplified by the rapidly increasing testing rate.
Sure, but that 8% doom and gloom fear mongering death rate will fall fastest once normalized to match the rest of the world when the US gets testing sorted
Life expectancy is fucked, nobody talks about it. My old man, best human being I’ve ever known, retired police officer, long time college and high school football coach, loved by everyone is working a post retirement job at a hospital. And I want to pay him to quit, but I’m afraid he won’t. If we get blindsided this by this, there is no fucking excuse.
Just had to vent.
PPE at the hospital is woefully limited, we, as I’m sure others, are trying to line up alternative sources even if it is handfuls of items. Don’t get it twisted, the gov recommendation that the public doesn’t need masks etc. is because there isn’t enough for the health care workers.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
This virus may end up killing less people than locust this year, maybe even less then the weapons of war made by US manufacturers (and I’m not talking about rifles).
However, consumer spending and investor confidence can be irrational in both directions, especailly when both are amplified by unsustainable debt.
So, regardless of the effect this virus *should* have on economies, the effect it *has* and *will* have is devastating, especially because economies are already near the edge.
Also, think about this:
3.6% -> 5% unemployment: econmic contraction
6.4% -> 5% unemployment: econmic recession
It’s race run on a treadmill, as our economic model is not sustainable with a growth rate of 0%, unlike a stable society. If a stock had a revenue growth rate the same as inflation or US GDP, it would be viewed as a terrible buy.
BTW, the Californian who die got it on a cruise ship. However, this was not an *Asian* cruise line : it was North America.
“A San Francisco-based cruise ship carrying more than 3,000 people is being held off the California coast as officials begin testing passengers for coronavirus after learning that **two** former passengers of the ship tested positive for COVID-19….Officials are trying to locate **hundreds** of other Californians who disembarked from the Grand Princess ship in San Francisco last month after a trip to Mexico…”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Grand-Princess-2-500-on-board-some-sick-15106141.php
Probably AIDS
“I had a girlfriend, and only ever had sexual feelings for women, but I just couldn’t shake the idea that I was somehow lying to myself.”
https://www.esquire.com/uk/life/sex-relationships/a14379/homosexual-ocd/
Calls? As a matter of fact, I bought SPY puts. But not enough of them to be worthwhile. That’s the hell of it, right there. A starter position!
Recall the Michael Lewis comment in ‘Liar’s Poker’. “Imagine how people would crowd a casino where everyone who bet, won big.”
This horseshit all started with the introduction of 401k plans in the 70s. Which was just another way Wall Street figured out how to sell more stocks. Everybody can retire wealthy, because historical returns no longer matter! We’ll see how that works out. As an economist, you know as well as I do what real returns actually are, in both stocks and bonds.
Only when the margin clerks force a sale of your underwater shares will you have permission to die of the virus.
This is why, when the kids were little, Mrs Fly was in charge of bedtime stories.
NH guy told to “self quarantine” pending test results …instead went to a social event in VT with 100 attendees. He has tested positive. Consequences?
I don’t know if China was too draconian in their containment methods, but our blowing mask-free sunshine out of the mouth of a Rapturetard is a problem.
Easy come, easy go.. little high , little low… whichever way the wind blows…..
The razor-tipped wheel of misfortune is spinning wildly. Raising a shield of short term puts and calls is futile. Resist the urge or choke on regret. Right?