Making a Bet

I’m making a market call; I say we go lower.

Too much froth, while the economy is weakening. Normally, as you know, “The Fly” is a drunken bull, buying all sorts of momentum names, while cursing the Mothers of those who sell short.

However, it’s stupid to ignore the agony in retail, construction, auto’s and semiconductors.

Without high commodity prices and a weak dollar, most of the big industrial names would be sucking wind too.

So, during the month of January, I am committed to selling every spike, while reupping my short positions. Furthermore, with 10-k’s coming due, I am sure the big audit firms, scared of litigation, will insist the brokers and banks be as transparent as could be.

This will result in more “shoes to drop.”

Regarding [[MVIS]]–

I will sell some of my position into the CES hype. I sense there will ample opportunity to revisit the name, during the course of 2008.

Top pick: [[FXP]]

NOTE: Check the spike in [[SRS]] today.

I bought 6,000 [[FXP]] @ $79.50.

Disclaimer: If you buy FXP because of this post, the next time you are driving on the freeway, insane truckers will harass you. And, you may lose money.

Only the stock Gods know how frustrated “The Fly” is with [[MVIS]].

I’ve been patiently holding a ridiculous amount of stock, while holding in countless others, waiting for the story to pan out.

For more than a year, I’ve been told: “MVIS is going to be double digits. They will change the way people use their handheld devices.” Yet, I sit here looking at my stupid monitor, and the stock is mid 4’s.

For the most part, the CFO of MVIS, Jeff Wilson, torpedoed the investor confidence CEO Alex Tokman had rebuilt for more than a year—by selling a bullshit 40,000 shares @ $4.70.

In hindsight, selling at $4.70 was a good idea.

Fuck you very much Jeff Wilson.

Now what?

Well, this is the year the proverbial ball starts rolling for the company. If everything stays on track, the company should start selling Picop products during Christmas of ’08. If so, there is no way the stock remains in the 4’s.

Conservatively, using the numbers projected by several analysts, the stock should be trading, at a minimum, $8—without a major ramp. Once MVIS gets their paws into [[MOT]] or Samsung cellphones, I suspect the stock will trade north of $15.

However, keep in mind, all of this depends on the company (through proxy) being able to mass produce green lasers, which could be very expensive. That’s the kicker.

Before I make any big decisions, I want to see the progress of their R&D, displayed at CES. I know a few people who will be inside the MVIS presentation. I’ll be sure to pass along some of their notes.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZQQgvhn4jg 450 300]

Thanks to the knockout numbers from [[MON]], the agriculture sector is on fire, with gains in [[AGU]], [[VMI]], [[AG]], [[SYT]], [[TNH]], [[POT]], [[LNN]], [[ARTW]], [[CNH]], [[CF]] and my favorite ag etf [[MOO]].

Basically, the ag sector, along with gold/silver, oil and solar, has become the de facto momentum sector or safe haven for the bulls.

Unfortunately, many in the sector have run up too much and have poor risk/reward ratios, with the exception of VMI.

Compared to its chief rival, LNN, VMI is at least 20% cheap. I’d buy the stock with both hands, under $92.

Also, CF looks like it may run to $130+, based upon fundamentals of course.

As you know, using technical analysis is an excellent way to pretend to be smart, with regards to investments.

Well, so far in 2008 the stock Gods have bestowed great fortune on the one named “Fly.”

I must be hallucinating; because I believe [[MVIS]] just issued two press releases in as many days. Something tells me there is more to come.

Also, there have been some dreadful retail numbers coming out of the US and Britain, as of late. Yet, gangster clothing retailer [[URBN]] is piping hot.

I suppose the gangsters are not feeling the economic slowdown, son.

Also, looking at some alternative energy plays, I found [[GRH]]— a play on wind energy.

How could one go wrong with wind?

Finally, if the market does not bounce today, we’re going down 5% within a week.

On a bounce or not, I will sell short more [[LEH]], and add to my [[FXP]], [[SKF]] and [[EEV]] positions.

More good news.

Microvision (Nasdaq:MVIS), announced today that it has entered into a development agreement with one of the world’s leading distributors and manufacturers of diverse consumer electronics products. Under the agreement, the consumer electronics company will be evaluating Microvision’s advanced pico projector prototype displays for use with a variety of mobile devices including phones, laptops and personal media players. For confidentiality reasons, the name of the consumer electronics partner and terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVvrEeVN_vw 450 300]

“The Fly” doesn’t feel sorry for you. You were given three weeks notice of pending doom, yet did nothing to protect your family from swift “de-banking.”

Now, many of you feel the short trade is “crowded” or “long in the tooth.”

Fuck you. I don’t think so.

I’m very busy now. So , I don’t have time to explain the intricacies of how this game works.

Just know, fund managers will position themselves accordingly, early 2008, much to your chagrin.

I bought 1,000 [[EEV]] @ $75.68.

Disclaimer: If you buy EEV because of this post, your water heater will burst. And, you may lose money.