iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,433 Blog Posts

Making a Bet

I’m making a market call; I say we go lower.

Too much froth, while the economy is weakening. Normally, as you know, “The Fly” is a drunken bull, buying all sorts of momentum names, while cursing the Mothers of those who sell short.

However, it’s stupid to ignore the agony in retail, construction, auto’s and semiconductors.

Without high commodity prices and a weak dollar, most of the big industrial names would be sucking wind too.

So, during the month of January, I am committed to selling every spike, while reupping my short positions. Furthermore, with 10-k’s coming due, I am sure the big audit firms, scared of litigation, will insist the brokers and banks be as transparent as could be.

This will result in more “shoes to drop.”

Regarding [[MVIS]]–

I will sell some of my position into the CES hype. I sense there will ample opportunity to revisit the name, during the course of 2008.

Top pick: [[FXP]]

NOTE: Check the spike in [[SRS]] today.

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37 comments

  1. mrkcbill

    Fly you seem well rested and razor sharp for the New Year. I think your commentary is right on.
    I will Caucus for The Fly tonight!

    Football Fans tune in tonight for the Jayhawks V. Hokies this should be very colorful and quite a tussle.

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  2. Mr. LIMM's Yoda

    Ass kicked by dah many burrets school will dah Rock Chark Jayharks be.

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  3. mrkcbill

    That would be–Lawk Chawk Jayhark

    Our Coach Is PHAT

    Jayharks win!

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  4. ottnott

    Nothing like a natural pair of man boobs. The surgically enlarged versions are no match for the real thing.

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  5. Weed

    “This will result in more “shoes to drop.”

    If more shoes do drop, I hope they are CROX (which are not really shoes, anyway).

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  6. Fly if you sell MVIS the stock will surely crash. Selling MVIS would make you Judas to Jesus, Brad to Jen, Ducati to Reason. Don’t do it.

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  7. Anonymous II, eponymous founder of Anon
    Anonymous II, eponymous founder of Anon

    I agree with Anonymous, do not do it, Fly.

    We will enlist the PG to boycott your site.

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  8. yokahomamama

    “Before I make any big decisions, I want to see the progress of their R&D, displayed at CES. I know a few people who will be inside the MVIS presentation. I’ll be sure to pass along some of their notes.”….

    Fly,
    Do you already know something to cause a decision to sell?

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  9. mrkcbill

    BBBY oh my.

    Hard to be bullish….Bush and PPT coming out tomorrow.

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  10. Mr. LIMM's Yoda

    Lock Chark Jahalk collect is!

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  11. taperhead

    investing is a minute by minute assessment. i am sure the fly is constantly evaluating. so should you. if you’re taking your buy and sell cues from someone who is basically anonymous and in cyberspace, you’re fucked.

    evaluate what to do about MVIS (if you hold it) on your own.
    be smart, not a lemming.

    my take. it’s a hold at least through CES. i suspect daily press releases… which will need to be gone over diligently to determine whether they affect fundamentals.

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  12. Juju bear

    MVIS is for asshats.

    More bang for the buck on a time adjusted basis in shorting and playing inverse ETF’s like FXP, which I thoroughly endorse.

    RIMM is worthy of shorting, as also the “milk the farmer” stocks will be in the near future.

    If you’re losing by trying to make money buying stocks, then do a Costanza.

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  13. kd

    Fly do you have any info on laser production? Do you think MVIS’s partners will not be able to meet the target? Why get bearish now, we are most likely 8-9 months away. I bet we see a product for the 8/8/8 olympics in china. What better stage to introduce a product than that. And 6 months before we get to launch we should hear news about freezing design, additional aggrements etc. That should keep this stock supported at this level. Why bail now, when so close. You knew last year that product will not be launched until 4q 2008.
    Only concern we should have is the lasers. Will our partners be able to deliver what they promised? Will we get low cost, low power and high volume lasers when we are ready to go? Until that becomes clear I’m sticking with this investment. AT and his team has not given me any reasons to doubt them. AT has delivered on every promise this year and I have no reason to doubt him that he will not fulfill his promise of being a playoff conteder in 2008 and superbowl champs in 2009.
    kd.

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  14. Tim

    You are going to record big losses being short this market

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  15. Mr. LIMM's Yoda

    Jabbah dah Hut, dat man appeals to be. A blahziah does he weah?

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  16. Mr. LIMM's Yoda

    Stir rong CLOX, is Flosty?

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  17. Juju bear

    Chinese Yoda, STFU !

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  18. Wang Hung Lo's Yoda
    Wang Hung Lo's Yoda

    Weech Yoda you tark to, juju?

    Fry, goo you aw naw at cawring mahkets. Stay wit caws on indibiduaw stahks. Asshattely away you wiew stay.

    Juju, fluck you, (tee-hee hee)

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  19. Weed

    Yeah, this Chinese accent shit is getting old.

    Since I am dyslexic, I can follow the Yoda shit, though.

    Pissed now am I.

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  20. Juice

    Nikkei getting major homo-erectus hammer of debankage – 3.80%

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  21. Woodshedder

    Tomorrow’s move will be based completely on the employment numbers- PERIOD.

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  22. broken A

    Nikkei getting GANG-RAPED….

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  23. BOOMER

    nikkei getting flaming homo hammer of certain and painful death

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  24. Alvari40

    taperhead,

    I agree with Fly from the standpoint that we have had a 13% pop in the past three trading days, and ligtening up into this strength ain’t all that bad. I dropped 25% of my position today and will not hesitate to drop another 25% on Friday if this bitch can’t close strong. Then holding 50% position through CES is the plan. Any sign of reversal out of CES and I pee on the remaining position and sell them off to unsuspecting schmucks and get on with my life in ’08.

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  25. BOOMER

    is there a bottom to the rice bowl tonight? nikkei is straight down.

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  26. Alvari40

    Nikkei down 4.7% thus far. Strange thing is that Yen is not reflecting the plunge, nor are our futures. Our futures only down around 2/10 of 1% thus far. Anyone doing any research to see why they knocked out the ramen bowl? Please respond in english only since I smashed my Yoda and Chinese Yoda decoder ring tonight.

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  27. Alvari40

    Nikkei is now down 5%. Rumor is circulating that there may be a loan default by a large Japanese City.

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  28. BOOMER

    where did you hear that?

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  29. Alvari40

    Boomer,

    Unreliable source – Forex.com.

    Also heard from same source via RTTNews that the surge in oil above $100 and concern about US economy impacted investor sentiment. Their market was closed from Dec 31 to Jan 3rd, and trading will only be 1/2 day today. So, they came back from the break worried and are dumping given the 1/2 day trading they have today. Their export issues are falling today due to recent Yen gains.

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  30. Alvari40

    Their market is essentially playing catchup as I read it (same source)

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  31. Alvari40

    Article from RTTNews below:

    1/3/2008 9:00:46 PM Friday, Tokyo shares plunged on the first trading session of 2008, as a surge in oil prices above US$100 a barrel overnight and concerns about the U.S. economy impacted investor sentiments. Markets in Japan were closed from December 31 to January 3 for the New Year holidays. Trading on Friday will be only for half a day.

    At 10:20 a.m. local time, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index was down 661.28 points at 14,646.50 and the broader-based Topix index of all the First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was down 55.01 points at 1,420.67.

    In early Tokyo deals, the dollar was quoted at lower 109-yen levels. At 10:00 a.m. local time, the dollar was trading at 109.23-109.29 yen, down 3.84 yen from 113.07-113.13 yen on December 30 in Tokyo late afternoon deals.

    Export-oriented issues fell due to the yen’s sharp gains against other major currencies. Toyota Motor fell 4.14%, Sony plunged 5.48% and Canon lost 4.23%.

    East Japan Railway dropped 2.39% and Aeon dropped 3.91% despite a Nikkei business daily report that the two companies are considering developing and managing shopping malls at train stations.

    Among other auto stocks, Honda Motor tumbled 4.0%, Mazda Motor plummeted 8.60%, Nissan Motor slumped 8.46% and Suzuki Motor fell 5.64%.

    Losers among other tech stocks included Advantest 6.92%, Fanuc 6.80%, Fujitsu 3.85%, Kyocera 4.94%, Minebea 2.51%, Matsushita Electrical Industrial 3.67%, NEC 6.21%, Oki Electrical Industry 4.00% and Tokyo Electron 6.71%. Sanyo Electric advanced 0.65%.

    In the banking space, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 3.25%, Mizuho Financial Group lost 3.18%, Resona Holdings plunged 5.47% and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group dropped 3.11%.

    Niipon Mining Holdings fell 2.37% and Nippon Oil plummeted 5.39%. Showa Shell slipped 2.10%.

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  32. lightrader1

    Fly,
    Check out the mvis video on the Seattle News.
    http://www.king5.com/video/featured-index.html?nvid=205525

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  33. lightrader1

    Fly,

    Check out the mvis picop SHOW vid on the Seattle News.

    http://www.king5.com/video/featured-index.html?nvid=205525

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  34. jeff

    Fly,

    Check out the mvis picop SHOW vid on the Seattle News.

    http://www.king5.com/video/featured-index.html?nvid=205525

    hahaha

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  35. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Fucktard: The cunt got smoked tonight! Hope you didn’t lose your job, with this global cooling here in Chicago you may need to move in with me.

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  36. ewa4sc

    VIZ

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  37. polar opposite

    See the MVIS SHOW in action. Go ahead….sell.

    http://www.king5.com/video/featured-index.html?nvid=205525

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