Before the Market Goes Up, This Has to Go Up

This is very simple. All of the gurus believe the Fed is on the verge of selling the entirety of their bond holdings, just because they said they might stop buying. How the hell do you know this is going to happen? For all we know, the Fed can hold their bonds forever, until they mature. If you are in the camp that believes the Fed is going to liquidate their bonds and crush the US economy, as a result, you are a god damned idiot.

The TBT trade is very crowded. Everyone is selling bonds; therefore, it’s only a matter of time before they get fleeced.

I like TLT at $100 and again at $95.

As far as the NASDAQ is concerned: I hate you.

GSVC is through the roof. It is the only play on Twitter that I know of, constituting 15% of their VC fund. I should’ve bought it at $8, when I wrote about it here.

I am not interested in trading today, fully expecting this bounce because The PPT said so. I don’t say these things to sell memberships. I have my own money. I say them because they’re true.

IMMR and AMBA continue to underperform. What can I say? The shareholders bases are weak and the market fickle. Today the market likes OINK and CCCR. Maybe tomorrow it will like IMMR.

I am trying to exhibit a bit of patience here, something that I’ve lacked over the years. My jumpiness has cost me millions in profits, made my BETA go through the roof and has probably shaved 30 years off my life expectancy. So pardon me if I take a lazy, yam eating, approach to the tape. Ultimately, people don’t change, so I don’t expect this experiment in discretion to last very long.

Everyone is transfixed on Jackson’s Hole. I couldn’t care less.

A great many of you homos are obsessed with having another crisis, another Lehman event that you might stick your beaks into. Plainly speaking, you’re all sick people. I’d throw you off a skycraper if I was able to get away with it, without even batting an eye.

What is the time frame for stupidity?

Meaning: is one considered to be stupid for being wrong after 1 week, 1 month, 1 year, 10 years? What is the statute of limitations for calling yourself a “guru”, after being wrong?

I’ve been wrong for about a week, long into a decline. Just last week I was 35% cash, seeing the market drop from vacation. Now I am back in the market, ready to draw some blood, and already I get resistance from the peanut gallery in the comments and on twitter. Other bloggers like to ignore comments because they have very small penis’s. But I will kill you, murdered in a very heinous fashion, done with all of the tact and grace that one might expect from a handsome gentleman murderer of course.

I am wrong for exactly 3 days. I need you to shut up now and acknowledge how wrong you’ve been since the atrocities of 2008. Furthermore, I need you to acknowledge that gold has grossly underperformed the SPY for the past 2 years, also a reason to be silenced.

At the end of the day, Le Fly is up nearly 40% and wins, all the time, even when he is losing. Say what you want about “market professionals” and “smart money.” It means nothing to me, because none of them are better than me.

These are the best of times, the roaring 2010’s. We will remember this era for the rest of our lives. You are bearish, like a stupid farm animal, in 1923. You’re supposed to be long in 1923 and sell in ’28-29–stupid jackass.

I added to positions today, namely DDD and AMBA. I am a little reticent about the prospects of AMBA, since it’s a new company in a volatile trading environment. The 3-D stock should do fine, barring some half-cocked attack doesn’t present itself on Seeking Alpha.

The bias is lower and the dow is off 700 points in recent weeks. So far, this is a garden variety sell off, following a terrific run.

For now and forever, I am holding the course, ignoring the tape.

I changed my mind on AMBA and bought more.

I am fully invested here, following my DDD purchase. I was going to average down in AMBA, but decided against catching the falling knife, in favor of grabbing onto a rocket ship. With today’s move in AMBA, I am down 10% on the position. This is where I draw the line, typically, deciding whether to double down on the position or cut my losses.

It’s important to consider the condition of the overall market, when assessing risk. I view the current sell off as superfluous and without teeth. Therefore, as logic dictates, the greater the percentage loss in a high beta name, the more likely it will spring higher when the rebound commences.

We are waiting for the Fed minutes and I’d be shocked, SHOCKED MIND YOU, if they are bearish for stocks.

Nonetheless, this is the weird time of the year for stocks and anything can happen.

In short, during period of duress, it’s important to analyze risk and determine whether averaging down is “worth it.” By that I mean, is XYZ a core position or a trade? If it’s the latter, you might be better off allocating money elsewhere. I love corrections because it allows me to own quality stocks at discounted prices. Now is the time to discard the trash, in favor for “good” stocks.

I added to my DDD position.

The market is getting smashed again and I am loosing [sic] money. I figured, if I am going to get slapped around by the market like this, I might as well write like a retard.

Solars are up and running, with about 90% of the sector green.

Homes sales came in rock solid, lending to a neutrality in the shares of the homies today.

The over-arching theme is rates. The market is running inverse to its direction: rates up, market down. This phenomenon isn’t new and was probably to blame for the 2008 market melt down, after Greenspan popped the housing bubble by raising rates 6 consecutive times. So here we are again, but this time the market is responding to innuendo, instead of actual Fed policy.

Total nonsense.

AMBA is lighting my face on fire, for no reason at all.

Thank god for YELP and DDD.

At the moment, my losses are stunted at 0.8%. I might allocate some cash into this mess.

Here are my positions and the thesis by which decisions are made, with regards to being long.

IMMR: The stock is going higher, which is why I own it.

YELP: I like the stock, especially since it’s going higher.

POWI: Rumour has it the stock is heading much higher. I concur (extra Dr.), which is why I am long.

AAPL: I own AAPL and would bet my male anatomy it’s going higher.

AMBA: I like many things about the company, especially its stock–because it’s going higher.

CHD: This stock has treated me very well over the years, mainly due to the fact it has gone higher.

DDD: Higher in 3-D? Why the hell not?

FB: The world’s worst ipo of all time is seemingly heading higher.

PAMT: Knock, knock. Who’s there? It’s me, “Heading”. Heading who? Heading higher.

WM: This garbage stock is all the rage. I foresee its share price going higher.

PEP: Have you ever taken a warm bottle of pepsi, shake it up real good, then open it? That’s what the stock price is going to do soon.

RAS: My latest and greatest stock that will be known around these parts for demonstrating a distinct sense of decorum, with regards to heading, the hell, higher.

That is all.