iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,473 Blog Posts

I DID IT AGAIN!

When I get behind and idea and obsess over it and buy it all the time, 9 out of 10 times I will be right about that stock and it will go higher. It happened with MVIS from $1.50 to $5. It happened with FTK from $1 to $19. It happened with YELP from $12 to $40. It happened with WNR from $12 to $35. And it’s happening to FRO right now.

There are a million reasons for me to be pissed right now, once of which is that I sold a million shares of FRO at an average cost of $2.20. Also, I knew GNK was set to trailblaze higher, yet I just sat here–like a troll–eating oatmeal and talking to losers on the telephone.

The next time I become obsessed, sort of like how I am now with IMMR, just hold the stock and revisit your position a year later. In order for me to fully maximize my potential, I will need to be cryogenically frozen or induced into a coma for 12 months. I’d do that, but I have kids and I love them to pieces. So, I guess this is my burden to carry, the proverbial cross on my shoulder heading up the hill (extra Jesus).

I will accept this cruel and unusual punishment and continue my work, even though said work does nothing but frustrate me.

Hey, don’t worry, I’ll be back here with new ideas that will go up 200-1,000% and not benefit from any of them.

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New Thesis Idea: Catch the Knife

Have you noticed all of the trash being carried around by distinguished members of Wall St? I just ran a few screens and was shocked to find out that garbage, for lack of a better word, has been the best investment thesis over the past two years. And I’m not talking about the Wayne Huizenga type either.

I remember BODY being dead in the water, single digits, now it boasts twelve.

Want more?

Here, have a looksy.

Trash

 

Look at the one month returns on some of these stocks!

While I rack my brains, trying to play the momo game, shmucks are making a killing buying up trash. There’s an edge to owning dogs into earnings. Since expectations are so low, often times they bounce hard on the smallest notion of positivity.

I took it upon myself to dig, mind you, through the dumpsters and have come up with a list of stocks, befitting for a gentlemen, such as myself.

gents

Observe.

I did the leg work, so that you, the leech, don’t have to. There are 64 stocks in total. They need to be weeded out for red flags.

Dogs1

 

Dogs2

 

PPT users can access information in real time, here. My watchlist is here.

I’m almost sick and tired of chasing stocks. I might just take a break from it and lavish myself in 100% garabagio. I bet it will work out better to boot.

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BREAKING: TIM COOK CONTINUES TO DESTROY THE HOUSE THAT JOBS BUILT

Apple beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs towards low end of expectations with in-line gross margin  (418.99 -7.32)
Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $7.47 per share, $0.19 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $7.28; revenues rose 0.9% year/year to $35.32 bln vs the $34.91 bln consensus; Q3 gross margin 36.9% vs Street est of 36.6% and 36-37% guidance.

  • 31.2 mln iPhones sold in Q3 vs Street est of ~26 mln
  • 14.6 mln iPads sold in Q3 vs Street est of ~17 mln
  • 3.8 mln Macs sold in Q3 vs Street est of ~4 mln

Co issues guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $34-37 bln vs. $37.07 bln Capital IQ Consensus; with gross margin 36-37% vs. 36.6% Street est.

Word of advice for Mr. T. Cook: BUILD A BIGGER PHONE. They will come.

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Waiting to Be Cooked

I lost 1.4% today and I missed out on ONVO and GNK. If I didn’t enjoy the eccentricities of life, I’d shoot myself out of a carnival cannon right now. There was at least 20 stocks on my watchlist up more than 7% today. I am missing out on one high flyer after the next.

This all makes for a very depressing situation for me, not to mention the fact that I am stuck in IMMR, an immense position and the volume is dead.

So here we are, waiting for AAPL to report–stupefied by the ineptitude of a certain Tim Cook.

 

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I Feel Myself Getting Cold

I’ve been wanting to buy GNK and CAAS all day, but have held back since they’re both low volume death traps. For the time being, both stocks are climbing and the market looks fine. But what if AAPL throws a grenade for earnings after-hours? What if the market decides to pause? There are so many ifs, not enough red bulls.

Either way, I find myself cold, searching for answers, looking for the truth in a sea of lies.

I am enjoying the pullbacks in both YELP and TRLA and can only wish they both drop 10% from here, so I can get back in. When in doubt about what stocks to buy, I like to default to my favorite story stocks. Otherwise, I’m just trading a bunch of crap, literally hoping and praying for a breakout.

This isn’t a rational way to invest.

The market is flat, but I am down 1.2%. Taking a step back and seeing how far I’ve come over the past 6 weeks, I’d be an idiot to press my luck at a time when I feel like I’ve lost an edge.

—————————————————————————

Speaking of which, the other day on twitter, post Davian fraud revelations, I haphazardly intertwixt Tim Sykes with the word fraud. This was an immature act on my behalf and hereby apologize to him for my indiscretion.  Truth be told, it’s very easy to just say things on the internet– without even thinking how it might affect the other person. This coming from me, a person who has banned over 2,000 readers of the site for talking trash, I should know better.

 

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Pulling Back My Horns

I sold out of FWM, USG, EMKR and WIT, raising a significant amount of cash because I’m just not feeling this tape right now. There are demons who are plaguing me, tempting me with visions of grandeur and superfluities.

It’s my job to fight these demons to do what George Costanza would do. If he was in my place, he’d do the opposite.

After my sales, I am now 70% long, looking for opportunities, but on alert for a sharp pullback.

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My Prospects Are Looking Bountiful

First and foremost, my position in CXO is paying off handsomely, right off the bat, allowing an oil man like myself consider expanding into degenerate lottery stocks. Very few of my positions are lower this morning and I do not care about news anymore.

I am sure there’s a reason as to why stocks are up, stemming from some lunatic speech in some idiotic country. But it’s all moot to me now.

As an oil man, all I care about is the prospects of my holdings. I will sell some too early and some too late; but making a profit is all that matters.

A great man once warned against timing tops and declared “I will seize the fat middle, every single time.” When reviewing my trades and wondering why in the world I sold so early, I am reminded by this piece of advice and feel grateful that I am so profitable this year.

Looking over the market I see that FIRE was acquired by CSCO and boat stocks are ripping again. If I miss GNK on the upswing, I doubt that I could ever forgive myself. I am now stuck between greed and fear, cognizant that both cannot exist at the same time if I am to be successful.

At the moment, I am sizing up the tape, contemplating putting on more risk or removing it.

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“The Fly” Is Partaking on an Expedition

Shares of USU skyrocketed today. I didn’t even bother looking at the news. All I had to see was the number of shares in its float and I knew why it went up. It’s a very tricky thing to be long stocks with thin floats. You need an ‘event’ that can provide you with the liquidity needed to get out at a handsome profit. Often times, when taking 7 fig positions in illiquid, low float names, the ‘event’ can be you taking the damned position, so you need another one.

Do you follow me?

Now if you’re buying into an already hot sector, there’s a good chance ‘bargain shoppers’ will get around to your name, bid it up, flag it on message boards, putting it to the top of the most % up list for the day. When that occurs, snowballs turn into avalanches and USU happens.

On the other hand, if you want to be really early in a name, buy into it when the sector is icy cold, or following an earnings shortfall. You will have to wait at least 3 months to get paid, but the reward can be bountiful.

To be perfectly frank with you, I am very eager to find a huge winner, having sold out of YGE and SOL too early. I need ‘the next one to go.”

I promise you, one of the stocks I am going to reveal to you will be a monster winner. Which one will it be?

UNXL
CERE
SUPN
CYCC
CWTR
BGMD
PEIX
CPSS
LNN
STRA
FBN
RAIL
ROSG
GEOS
ASPS
REDF
SBLK
CUTR
OCLS
CLNT
LBIX
DQ
PULS
EPAM
DRL
CSUN
CLIR
CIMT
CAAS
BIOD
USCR
FBRC
BREW
ADNC
ATOS
CHCI
CYOU
CPLA
CLFD
LEDS
ENVI
ENPH
RRGB
NCTY
RST
TROV
MN
ACPW
BODY
EGLE
MDCI

I know it’s a lot of names. They need to be weeded out. But there is treasure to be found, somewhere on this list. I promise you that. Ragin Cajun was kind enough to link up a chart on Chartpin (an iBankCoin property), so that you could vote for your favorite name. I am certain the majority of you will be too lazy to sift through the charts. But for those of you who are industrious and have some times to kill, humor me by voting for your favorite names.

Trusting consensus, I will then remove the names that received the least votes, run them through another filter or two, then begin to build a position.

Who’s up for a treasure hunt?

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SOMETHING IS BREWING BENEATH THE SURFACE

Don’t let this boring tape fool you. There are big things happening in a number of areas, such as stabilization of bonds and REITs, outperformance in small cap stocks, chinese stocks are ripping off chest hairs, oil is threatening to break towards $110, gold and silver are rebounding and the 3 year long Brent dominance over WTI is over. Let’s not forget the massive melt up in the Dry Bulk Index, spearheaded, allegedly, by big demand for iron ore in China.

I must admit, these ingredients make for a very bullish tape and I’d be hard pressed to find reasons to get defensive here.

It’s business as usual and being able to pick the right stocks is important. The tailwinds of liquidity are in abundance and all we have to do is avoid messing it up via bad stock picks.

Amongst my holdings, IMMR is frustrating me the most. However, I am pleased with WIT, FLSR, SCTY, EMKR and RKUS.

I have been researching several low float spec plays all day and should have a gamble or two soon. On the serious position front, I want to start buying POWI, but the volume is so damned thin. Volume has kept me out of some of my best ideas, namely OSTK at $5. Truth be told, there is nothing like nailing a cheap stock that trades by appointment that morphs into an expensive name with millions of shares traded daily. I’ve had only a handful of those in my career and always endeavor to find more.

For the session, despite the sleepy tone, I am +1.2%.

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Take a Stroll Through Crazy Town

I am monitoring today’s winners and it borders on comical, the way they’re pole-vaulting higher.

USU is mushroom clouding higher, as well as BCRX, HIMX, FDML, ALSK, HGSH, TROV, YRCW, CHTP, SOL and about a dozen others are luring me into the garbage dump again, searching for treasure.

Just a word of caution here: these bastard stocks are not interested in helping you. They will flame broil your Burger King eating asses and put your house in foreclosure. Be careful when chasing the biggest winners. The blade swings both ways. Remember LOTE? I didn’t think so.

The solar names have been consistent outperformers–fueled by a communist government and lurid oil prices. Within the space, I prefer FSLR over all, but have larger positions in both SCTY and EMKR because I’m a degenerate gambler.

I’m not a fan of FRO here. VLCC rates haven’t recovered. Buying it here is equal to betting that Charles Manson will make parole this go around. I do, however, like GNK more here, as it is tied to the BDI index, something that has demonstrated improvement. But, it’s worth noting, GNK can just surprise us all and declare bankruptcy–a novel way of increasing shareholder value these days (cite: OSG).

There are risks to this game.

Based upon the advice of my urinal shadows, I like the look of LVS and MDR. And, if ONVO gets into the 5’s, I might take a stab (no OJ).

On  the story stock front, you dirty fellas ought to have a look into the prospects of POWI. Their ‘quick-charge’ technology was picked up by QCOM and they stand to revolutionize the recharging of the smartphone and tablet markets, boasting speeds up to 75% faster than the current standard.

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