Fly Buy: $JAZZ

I doubled my position, making it overweight. Basis has been upped from $138 to $140, as a result. I am looking for $175 on this one.

Biotechs look good.

I sold off more of XON, lowering it to a standard sized position. It was my largest holding and extremely overweight. I also sold out of CNQR for a 2.5% loss. It appears momo stocks are receiving the hammer of death again. I have no interest in holding through another maelstrom of IT hatred.

With these sales, along with last week’s sales, my cash position is about 25%.

Very few stocks look attractive this morning. I will bide my time and choose my next moves very carefully.

I see the traffic stats. Most of you mongrels pester me with your audience, then shoot over to Chess, OA and a little RC. However, a certain Mr. Caine Thaler, trained mathematician, supreme long term investor, long time tabbed blogger of iBC, gets little recognition for his services.

Like all mathematicians, save Einstein, Caine isn’t very flashy. He doesn’t lure you in with pornographic titles or astounding declarations of extreme violence. But he’s been killing the market, in his own way, for years.

He invests in long term ideas. Right now he is bullish on coal. Pay attention lads; he’s much smarter than you.

I asked him to summarize some of his recent winners. This is the spreadsheet he gave me.

If you’re looking for another go-to guy on iBankCoin, give Caine Thaler, master of the 9th floor, a chance. His track records demands recognition.

The ASCO conference is in full bloom today, with a slew of positive data coming out from a number of biotech companies. This is going to be a boolish day for biotechs.

YEAR TO DATE STATS:

Major Indices:

Dow Jones: +0.85%

S&P: +4.07%

NASDAQ: +1.58%

Industry Winners:

Marijuana: +263%

Semiconductor-Memory Chips: +44.3%

Gold: +30.5%

Aluminum: +27.19%

Trucking: +27.09%

Industry Losers:

Electronics Stores: -32.11%

3-D Printing: -22.93%

Home Furnishing: -20.19%

Food- Major Diversified: -17.64%

Advertising Agencies: -17.39%

Large Cap Winners (market caps over $5 billion):

VIPS +94%

QCOR +67%

RAD +65%

HSH +60%

TRN +59%

Large Cap Losers:

TWTR -49%

DDD -45%

SID -35%

VIP -35%

NBG -34.9%

Mid Cap Winners (1-5 bill):

ICPT +246%

ITMN +168%

FURX +146%

EMES +122%

SBGL +110%

Mid Cap Losers:

HIMX -55%

GRPN -50%

SINA -47%

NUS -46%

OIBR -45%

Small Cap Winners (under $1 billion):

CBDS +643%

MNTR +509%

FSPM +502%

ISR +369%

VRS +300%

Small Cap Losers:

DRL -82%

NIHD -81%

EDMC -80%

LIQD -78%

BODY -77%

ETF Winners:

JO +60%

CAFE +55%

DRN +55%

INDL +47%

TMF +42%

ETF Losers:

DGAZ -65%

UVXY -44%

TVIX -43%

KOLD -43%

RUSL -42%

Commodity Winners:

Coffee: +61%

Natural Gas +21%

Palladium +17%

Cattle +12%

Cocoa +11%

Commodity Losers:

Copper -8%

Coal -5.5%

Silver -3.5%

Uranium -3%

Lumber -2.5%

Currency Standouts:

Brazilian Real +9%

Indian Rupee +8%

Australian Dollar +5%

Chinese Yuan -2.5%

Foreign Indices:

Japan -10.2%

Hong Kong -0.96%

China -3.6%

Britain +1.4%

Germany +4.1%

France +5.2%

India +14%

Canada +7%

UAE Dubai +51%

Argentina +34%

Egypt +21%

Denmark +18%

Indonesia +15%

Taiwan +5%

Pakistan +17%

Vietnam +10%

Russia -10%

Turkey +17%

Italy +14%

Norway +10%

Spain +9%

Portugal +13%

Ireland +8%

Bonds:

Long Term Govt Bond +9.5%

TIPS +5.65%

MTG Bond +3.9%

Long Term Corp Bond +9%

Dry Bulk Index: -58%

Le Fly: -27.5%

Breadth stands at 38%. Shares of BLOX, SPLK, ECOM, SSTK, CRTO, IMPV and WDAY are cratering again, leaving you with a choice.

A. Do you take the leap of faith on the assumption that today is a one off event and the bubble stocks will recover on Monday?

B. Avoid them like the plague that they are, in favor for real businesses?

There is a parable tucked away in the decision you’re about to make. It’s the classic battle of Greed versus Ambition, mixed in with a little luck and timing.  Luckily for me, it’s an easy decision, since I am risk averse. I hereby extricate myself from the vagrancy of the market and seek to enjoy my weekend without the specter of monday morning ‘surprise sex.’

We might just be heading towards another PPT oversold signal. If that’s the case, this might be a good time to eat a sandwich and enjoy the show.

I am not bearish, just cautious in light of the bubble stocks imploding again. I told you it was a dead cat bounce. Right now the carnage is limited to tech, with biotech still performing. Nevertheless, I was +25% on my XON bottom shares, the first half of my purchase, so I took profits.

With the proceeds, I remain vigilant, on the look out for moar opportunities.

FYI: Those dollars will either be allocated towards a GARP stock or speculative trade.

Feel free to frolic amongst yourselves.

Let’s not be disillusioned by what we are seeing in the high beta, money losing, tech space. Sure, the gains have been bountiful and it almost feels like 2013; but it’s not. Let the dastardly after hours pin less hand grenade trading in SPLK and BLOX serve as a reminder to you. If you’re playing this market, you need to remember two things.

1. Never hold a money losing tech stocks into earnings.

2. Limit your exposure to money losing tech stocks to just 20% of your overall portfolio.

The biggest winners will be in the companies who make money, period, end of discussion. Case in point: my semi-annually managed portfolio of growth stocks is now +0.4% for the year.  Had NUS not been cut in half, I’d probably be up 10%. I will be updating that GARP portfolio over the weekend, which will remain static, designed for longer term investors, for the remainder of 2014. I intend to put my best efforts into the selection process, comprising of 15 growth stocks of the undervalued varietal.

I made over 2% during today’s session, reducing my year to date losses to mid 27%, which is a full 10% off the lows. Should I get down to the low 20’s, I will likely take a more aggressive approach to this market, in order to expedite my current predicament.

This rally is dated till Alibaba.

I am in it to win it. I added to my position.

Silver stocks are sharply higher today.

I believe 99.9% of you scoffed at my silvery suggestion last night. Granted, I didn’t buy any, as my money is tied up in other things. But the point remains: the unwashed masses are better off eating chickened mcnuggets than offering financial advice on the internets.