Why was there a trailer out for this 15 minute opinion video, one day before it was released?
Isn’t Carl too fucking old to drum up all of this drama for an opinion piece?
Why is it filmed in HD, by his daughter?
God damn it, this is the stupiest shit ever. Sorry Carl, but you lost Fly credits and will no longer fall in under my protection when the apacalypse hits and I am a warlord, occupying your area.
The NIKKEI and Hang Seng are off by more than 3% tonight. Let’s be honest with one another, no other markets are credible or worthy of discussion in that God forsaken part of the world. Do we really give a shit about Singapore or the kangaroo shit shovelers in Australia?
Your game is over over, mate. The commodity boom has ended and in its place is debilitating depression, locked in through deflation. This is the sort of depression that is permanent. There isn’t a way out from it, unless of course your central banks are willing to “reset” the whole system and default on all of the debt.
I’m just gonna write until I feel better about myself, so bear with me.
During tonight’s Asian coverage on CNBC, the retarded host and guest keep pronouncing Carl Icahn’s name “iCAN”, like he’s Tim Cook’s latest gadget. Personally, I can’t wait for old man iCAN’s video tomorrow, where he intends to discuss the “great (motherfucking) catastrophe” that we’re barreling into. I love it when men worth $20 billion warn us whipper-snappers of impending doom. In no way is that man connected to reality. His life is a fiction. His legacy is priority. His words are meaningless.
Petrobras has $170 billion in debt. Anyone want to guess when they might seek bankruptcy protection? How about CHK? How is this oil and gas, levered to the hilt, credit crisis different from the 2008 housing varietal? Thanks to easy money and a high oil price, money flowed feely into the coffers of our oil and gas companies. Now that Armageddon has gripped the fucking helmets of those George Bush’s, banks and financiers are left holding the bag of shit.
Who has exposure and how much is it?
Doing some quick scans in Exodus, it is a fuckload of debt.
In the oil and gas drilling equipment space, the median debt/eq ratio is 1.83. The total debt stands at $239 billion (lolz). Companies whose debt/eq ratios are greater than 5, also known as dead men walking, total debt exposure stands at $33 billion. But that’s just one little industry. Let’s move on, shall we?
Oil and Gas equipment: $84 billion/ distressed debt, as defined by debt/eq levels above 5: $8.4 billion.
Independent oil and gas: $115 billion/ distressed $31 billion.
Oil and Gas pipelines: $257 billion (lolz)/ distressed $1.57 billion.
Refiners: $65 billion/ distressed $00.00
Major Oil: $617 billion/ distressed $00.00
Ancillary debt structures that are under pressure:
Alternative Energy: $18.6 billion/ distressed $5.1 billion
Solar: $26 billion/ distressed $3.3 billion
Industrial Metals and Minerals: $86 billion/ distressed $18.7 billion
This is a rather general analysis of the industry. I am sure the terms of much of the debt out there is flexible and long dated. Nevertheless, it’s important to note that equity markets, for all intents and purposes, are effectively shut down for all distressed energy companies.
Total publicly trade energy related debt: $1.5 trillion.
Total publicly traded energy related DISTRESSED debt: $101 billion.
This is very reminiscent of the credit crisis of 2008, when those fucktards at the Fed were jacking rates up in the face of an industry in crisis.
“Given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year,” Williams said.
Let’s summarize our economy and see if this Fed Williams is right.
Tech: A Fred Wilson induced bubble of epic proportions.
Biotech: Don’t even.
Oil and Gas: The #1 source of high paying jobs in America, now in ruins.
Retail: Come on, son.
Utilities: Really?
Industrials: China says no thank you.
Pray tell me, Fed Williams, where is the strength you speak of and how does higher rates do anything but hurt us at this moment in time?
With people like this leading us, it’s no wonder how we got to a place where we have 19 trillion in debt, an insane foreign policy agenda, and Donald “fuck you, you’re fired” Trump leading in the polls.
Fuck the Fed (I thought I’d never utter those words).
This would’ve never happened under Chairman Bernanke. In a few short years, under the tutelage of a unqualified Yellen, the Federal Reserve have become irrelevant, neutering themselves a little bit at a time, slowly but surely, speech after speech. The whole notion of hiking rates in this fucking environment is beyond absurd, it’s suicidal.
We know our Fortune 500 companies are hurting, laying off jobs, because of a strong dollar. So what does out Fed do in response to China blatantly devaluing their currency? They discuss rate hikes!? Think about that for a minute. We are working for the Chinese, bolstering our dollars for their benefit.
I am not surprised by anything anymore. This isn’t a nation led by the people for the benefit of the people, but instead for a select few, by a group of individuals I’d never like to see at my children’s birthday parties.
We closed down more than 300 today. Nothing was resolved. We left the marketplace without a glimmer of hope. Asia is going to get harangued into submission tonight and Volkswagen will ensure more bad news in Europe. It’s a good time to be short. I harbor zero regrets because every decision I made, I made them with good intentions based upon the reliable information that made me coin in the past.
What’s the point of discussing “buy lists” and levels to look out for? It’s full blown crisis out there and no one is manning the ship. Janet Yellen is at her local diner, eating an egged salad sandwich, then vomiting the whole thing back into her mouth, practicing for her next public speaking performance.
As the market winds down another day of crash sequence trading, I am enlivened and comforted by the fact that Fed Dudley insisted, just this very morning, that the Fed would raise rates in 2015.
Biotech stocks are off by 8% today…as an index.
Our oil and gas industry has been decimated, thanks to the absurdity of its business model, which calls for oil to price above $70 per barrel…forever. Otherwise it’s grossly unprofitable and therefore must cease to exist.
Our tech sector has been swallowed whole by Apple. Nothing else exists.
Our shopping malls are barren and the stores inside of them teetering on bankruptcy…mainly because job creation in this country has moved away from the higher paying varietal and more towards Shake Shack.
Plus anyway, the deflationary vortex known as AMZN is, slowly but surely, making sure that the retail landscape changes on a permanent basis.
All of these things, these great wonders, permits our new Fed chair to make speeches and to allow her underlings to make speeches about the virtues of higher rates. If the argument for higher rates revolves around the idea that we must do it now, so that we can cut rates later, why the fuck are we doing it in the first place? It seems like a giant circle jerk to me.
The sad part about this drop is that it’s not the worst I’ve ever seen. I am entreated to these drops once per year, each time in a difference sector. My only wish is for the whole thing to just fucking crash already, down 15% in a single session, so that I could get some closure in my life.
Since the Hillary Clinton comments pertaining to expensive drugs costs, the biotech index is off by 14%. Understand something, this sector was in bubble mode, thanks to Fred Wilson and his cohorts cornering innovation in the tech space, hoarding them like greedy little goblins in the private markets. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that NASA found evidence of “flowing water” on Mars today, a precursor of an alien invasion no doubt.
Regarding the biotechs: these are no longer trading on prospective FDA decisions or takeover targets, only fear.
Biotech Hospitals Big Pharma
Inside of Exodus, I track high valuation stocks in what I call a ‘bubble basket’. Said basket peaked on 7/23/15 at $122.6 and is now trading at $92.79. Last year October 13th, the index hit a low of $87.30, before spring boarding to $101 by Halloween. The all-time low of the index was reached on 5/8/14 at $82.57. Back then, doom and plenty of gloom was rife in the daily stock market discussion. Persons of great importance would gallivant onto the teevee stations to cast aspersions and stake a claim in the top of the stock market, never to be reached again.
By July 1st of last year, the bubble basket hit a high of $104.76, a gain of 26% in less than two months from the contretemps festooned days of May.
One last thing before I go (extra Columbo), just in case you thought the biotech index was cheap, I wanted to place some hard facts on the table.
That’s a 10 graph of the biotech price to sales history. As you can see, it is elevated to absurd levels right now–trading at 32x sales. That number is a little misleading, however, since most biotechs don’t have sales to speak of. For the most part, the biotech industry is wrought with r&d labs that were brought public due to investor demand, again thanks to Fred Wilson. Major pharma, a better barometer of healthcare valuation, is trading with a p/s ratio of 5.86x, the lowest level since 2012.
Icahn is out with this gem this morning, warning America of a great doom approaching, probably because he was just outbid at a Sotheby’s art auction.
Before you go freaking out because Carl Icahn is coming out with his bearish thesis soon, just know he always says this stuff, just prior to taking billion dollar positions in the riskiest stock bets in the world.
Only in this instance, he just took down an 8.5% position in FCX, bought MOAR CVR and also a little CHK and RIG to boot, just a few weeks ago–prior to these statements. Perhps he’s lost his marbles?
Or, maybe Carl is doing what Carl does best: look out for his best interests.
Don’t be surprised to learn that Uncle Carl bought into this decline, even while warning the great unwashed public of cataclysm.
Stocks are getting hammered into the fucking ground this morning, led by Apple. They announced iPhone 6s sales beat by 1 million, to 13 milliion units. Wall Street is in full retard mode.
Biotech is being destroyed, yet again. I cannot believe JAZZ is this low. They stand to earn $10 this year. Amazing.
How was your weekend? Did you miss the stock market? Don’t worry, you’ll be enjoying yourselves soon amidst a sea of carcasses, as we pile drive into the blood. For those of you who are short: congrats. You’ve managed to hold your butter and withstand the temptation of profit. You’re probably a genius or a moron, which would eplain your recent success.
As for stocks, only the long bond appears to be working today. Commodities are off terribly, as the continent of Europe cascades away from the light, into the depths of an evil darkness not seen since the fun days of panic–circa 2011.
All eyes will be on biotech, to see if risk appetite continues to get devoured whole, or perhaps a miracle asserts itself in the form of a relief rally.
So today’s astrological significance, super blood moon/ total eclipse, is a once in a life time occurrence that has all of the “astro-bears” out with tidings of doom. Pray tell me, why do all of these omens couple with events of horror? Why can’t we all just drink a few martinis and see the market go higher?
Last week’s spectacle of our Federal Reserve Chairwoman mouth vomiting at the end of her abbreviated speech, followed by the absurd excuse of dehydration following a long, arduous day of speaking to other human beings, lends to an already uncertain environment, one that is ruled and enforced by the clowns out in Beijing.
China is slowing. Europe is staid. South America is a mess. Africa has never been relevant. American is the last hope for a generation of unfortunate souls, who’ve braved the burden of a volatile stock market–dating back to 1997.
One thing I can promise you is this: we could be entering the worst bear market since 2008 and you can still get wiped out leaning in short at the wrong time. Go into my archives and view the commentary from March of 2008. See how I was having fits short a market that was hell bent on bouncing, pretending nothing was wrong. Once the sellers exhaust themselves, buyers will creep back in and then drop the fucking anvil of absolute death onto their faces. It’s going to be horrific. We’re already deeply oversold and only a moron would press his shorts here.
As you probably know by now, I’m a big fan of Sherlock Holmes. My favorite teevee show of all-time was House, which was based off the Sherlock Holmes character. The new BBC version of Sherlock, starring Benedict Cumberbatch, was fantastic. And, despite what a few tolls had to say about Robert Downey Jr. playing the famous detective, both movies acted out by the former drug addict were smashing successes.
Naturally, I prefer the second movie–because it stars his nemesis Moriarty. The ebb and flow between the two characters was great. Plus, we got to see the famed showdown at the end of the second movie. They did not disappoint. Bottom line, if you haven’t seen these movies and enjoy a good mystery, do yourselves a favor and rent both of them this weekend.
