YOU DO NOT RAISE RATES WHILST IN THE DEFLATIONARY VORTEX

It’s as if the people on the television are fucking slow and have never seen this before.

I am going to talk to you like you were a child. Nod your head if you understand me (extra Macke).

The US cannot decouple from the global recession, just like how China could not escape our wrath in 2008.

Raising rates with 19 trillion in debt and much lower than expected inflation data makes zero sense. Basing the whole “raise rates now” campaign on “get it over with already” or “raise now to cut later” is juvenile and reckless.

10 yr treasury yields are below 2%. There is clearly a big problem here, but the Fed is tone deaf. This new Fed, led by Yellen, is not capable of responding to markets like Bernanke, which makes them dangerous.

We are very oversold, almost too much. The text book says rates cannot go higher; ergo, this sell off is childish and should be bought. The only problem with that position is the lack of credibility Yellen and her idiot governors have conjured up in recent months.

When cooler heads prevail, this market will turn on a dime and rally.

Bad news is now bad news, apparently. S&P futures are now off by 17, NASDAQ by 40, following a weaker than expected jobs report. Consensus was looking for 203k jobs created in September and just 142k were made.

I don’t get it. Don’t you fuckers want slightly weaker numbers in order to get the Fed off the rate hike speech tour? No you don’t. You just want to sell stocks for any reason whatsoever. If we added 1 billion jobs in September, you’d still sell off the market. Sick bastards.

On a separate but related note, credit suisse is out with some research today discussing the current market mood and they’ve declared it to be one of ‘panic’. Well news fucking flash, assholes from Switzerland. No kidding.

Look, the markets are in crash mode. Commodity related sectors fell by 40% over the past 3 months. Global markets are in turmoil. The dollar is surging, causing our exporters a great deal of pain. Of course the economic data was worse than expected. That’s the whole fucking point of this great exercise in futility. The market was telling you this for months. What is supposed to happen now is simple:

The Fed will shut the fuck up and reverse their decision about rate hikes. Should the data get worse, they should consider another round of QE. Look at he bond yields. No one is pricing in a rate hike, but deflation.

Gold is soaring, up 1.7%. European markets have given up their huge gains and our futures are seemingly crashing through the floor boards.

Happy fucking Friday.

September Average Workweek 34.5 vs 34.6 Briefing.com consensus; Prior 34.6

08:30
ECONX
September Nonfarm Private Payrolls 118K vs 200K Briefing.com consensus

08:30
ECONX
September Hourly Earnings +0.0% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior +0.3%

08:30
ECONX
September Unemployment Rate 5.1% vs 5.1% Briefing.com consensus; Prior 5.1%

08:30
ECONX
September Nonfarm Private 142K vs 205K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 136K from 173K

NOTE: Futures are plunging on the bad jobs report, down 100. Does that make sense? Do you want a rate hike or not?

That might souund a bit counterproductive to the well being of the average citizenry. Then again, Wall Street has never been a place that cared about the average, un-monied, man.

The Fed has their guns pointed right at us. Should tomorrow’s jobs report exceeed the anticipated 203,000 new jobs created, a Fed rate hike might become a reality.

On the other hand, if by chance we should miss that number, perhaps miserably, the trolls over at the Fed will have no choice but to stand down and proceed to playing games of bridge, instead of contemplating a rate hike.

Futures are higher by 0.6%, ahead of the open. But that’s rather meaningless, since everything hinges on tomorrow’s numbers.

As an aside, both Europe and Asian markets are having productive sessions.

This isn’t a game anymore.

Treasury Secretary Lew, a man who gives zero fucks, is warning Congress that they need to quit trying to provoke a government shutdown and to pass a funding bill ASAP. If you recall, the last time Congress did this, the market suffered. This go around, following a Fed meeting date on 10/28, the November 5th deadline is especially ominous.

“Over the past ten days, we have received quarterly corporate and individual tax receipts and additional information about the activities of certain large trust funds, including military retirement trust funds,” Lew wrote in his letter to Boehner. “The tax receipts were lower than we previously projected, and the trust fund investments were higher than projected- resulting in a net decrease of resources available to the United States government.”

Lew added, “Based on this new information, we now estimate that Treasury is likely to exhaust its extraordinary measures on or about Thursday, November 5. At that point, we would be left to fund the government with only the cash we have on hand, which we currently forecast to be below $30 billion. This amount would be far short of net expenditures on certain days, which can be as high as $60 billion. Moreover, given certain payments that are due in early to mid-November, we anticipate that our remaining cash would be depleted quickly.”

It’s also worth noting that Lew is pointing out that tax receipts are coming in less than expected. In other words, the economy is slowing.

I am sure the Fed will read this press release and counter it with a speech talking about the glamour and bubble-esque nature of this economy and how it desperately needs an emergency rate hike.

The closer we get to a funding crisis, the more volatile the markets will become.

Fuck it; I will take it. We reversed nearly 60 NASDAQS and closed green. This is almost EXACTLY what Option Addict was discussing earlier today.

The good news is the market said “fuck it” and bought stocks despite what the Fed had to say. The bad news is the fucking Fed will be out and about tomorrow, trying to induce market calamity.

NFLX is the truth and TWTR is Fred Wilson’s shitting grounds.

Market breadth was only 37% today, so I have nothing, whatsoever, to celebrate this evening.

More later.

Its been about 1 hour since the last Fed governor threatened to raise rates. Therefore, Fed Williams, the consummate underachieving misfit, felt it incumbent upon himself to step into the fray, in order to see his put contracts rise in value.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Thursday renewed his call for an interest-rate hike “sometime later this year,” citing near-full employment and rapidly rising house prices that may be a sign of excessive economic optimism

“Excessive economic optimism”, Fed Williams says.

BEHOLD:

Literally fuck my life. No words.

The Dow was off 200 points earlier, now down just 40. Basic material names are leading the way, which is a net positive all things considered.

News of Apple possibly cutting back on semiconductor orders had the stock sucking dick earlier today. Now the stock is off by less than 1%.

Large cap stocks in the green include GOOGL, MSFT, HDB, WFC, AMZN, JPM and PG.

Using the real time momentum screener inside Exodus, the following stocks are at the highs of the session:

CELG, BID, VMW, SOL, CHTR, SQM, NAT, LH, JBLU and NOW.

Should the markets go back down towards the lows of the day, I fully expect centaurs from hell to appear on the NYSE tomorrow morning, kicking traders headlong into the machines and making a big mess about things, as a general observation.

NOTE: The S&P is now flat, reversing a 20 point deficit.

This has to be the most dysfunctional Fed since its charter was created. Between the Fed Chief mouth vomiting to end her speeches and her band of incompetents gallivanting around the country, clamoring for rate hikes, we are certainly fucked this Fed meeting on 10/28–right near Hallows eve, coincidentally, aka “The Fly’s” favorite holiday.

As I look at the deflationary vortex and toss things into it, I am truly amazed at Janet Yellen. I’d like science to seize her brain upon death and examine it for defects, for the benefit of the world. I feel it’s important that we begin to understand how the distorted mind works. The mind that alters, alters all.

For some reason, the Federal Reserve, and all its “Fed Governors” (they’re not really governors, but lackeys who play fetch with the chief), do not look at the news, nor the stock market. They do not see entire commodity driven sectors off by 40% over the past 3 months, or the price of crude dropping like an anvil from $100 to $44 in less than a year.

Our dollar is at new highs, up 15% over 1 year. As such, our Fortune 500 companies are bearing a horrible brunt with their overseas businesses.

The bottom line is this: The Fed is using a strong labor market as an excuse to raise rates. None of their inflation targets have been hit and there is no reason to believe inflation is on the horizon either, considering that the single largest avenue for high wage employment (oil and gas) has been shut the fuck down.

What they should be talking about is another round of QE. Instead, we must wait for them to knock on our doors, this Halloween, and hope they do not stab us in the faces upon opening it.

Get rid of all the people. Hurricane Joaquin is barreling its way towards the east coast of the United Steaks, as the hand of God, to correct the stock markets for good. Nothing would please me more than to wake up to a wasteland, the Statue of Liberty floating by my house, alongside all of the bridges.

Markets are weak today because Wall Street is pricing in the complete and utter destruction of the eastern part of the United Steaks.

More on this later.