WTI Pushes Through $38; Oil Stocks Are Raging Higher Again

If you like stomach ulcers, the oil sector is for you. Following yesterday’s trecherous move lower, oil stocks, save SDRL, are moving higher again.

Seasonally speaking, oil stocks do well through April.

Today’s 4% move is just another day at the office.

The wall of worry is indeed steep. It’d be interesting to see if WTI can get into the $40s again. In order to truly stave off the debt crisis that looms, prices need to go much higher than $38. It’s nice to see crude trade higher, if you’re CHK. But, ultimately, you need to see WTI back in the $60s to get excited about distressed oil stocks again.

It’s starting to sound like Ackman is done playing games with the fuckheads at Valeant. In a significant change of tone, Broadway Bill said if things didn’t appreciably improve at Valeant, either managment would be changed or the whole company sold to the highest bidder.

“It will be a messy fourth quarter and a messy first quarter but after that things should stabilize,” Ackman, whose Pershing Square Capital Management is Valeant’s third largest owner said at the Harbor Investment Conference.

“Either management will restore confidence in the reputation of the company with the public and the investment community or they won’t,” Ackman said. “If they can’t, then one of two things will happen. New management will be brought in or the business will be sold.”

“A lot of the uncertainty will lift in the next weeks,” he said referring to the earnings statement that is expected to be filed next week.

But Ackman conceded that Valeant is “the most contrarian stock investment you can own right now.”

At the height of Bill’s popularity, these statements would’ve lit a fire under the stock. However, times have changed and everyone just sort of yawns at these statements now.

VRX is nudging higher, if you will, for the day.

According to Deutsche Bank, demand for oil is going to come to a screeching halt by 2020. The reasons weren’t articulated very well. I can only surmise they mean fuel efficiency will vastly improve and that the Chinese people will opt ride bicycles to work, rather than automobiles.

Either way, if Chinese demand for oil drops by half, this will be a disaster of the first magnitude for the House of Saud and similar houses of their ilk.

“We believe that oil demand growth from the passenger vehicle sector, which has made up 66 percent of Chinese total oil demand growth since 2010, may slow in the medium term and then begin to decline by 2024,” he wrote. “This casts doubt over the capacity for continued long-term oil demand growth at current trend rates in China, and by extension, the world.”

As such, oil demand growth from the world’s second-largest economy could be cut in half from 2016 to 2020, he warned.

Growth in oil demand for passenger vehicles is a function of the number in use, distance traveled, and changes in fuel efficiency. BP’s assumptions on the increase in fuel efficiency are far too low, while the EIA’s implied estimate of demand growth for transport not linked to passenger cars is unrealistically high, Deutsche Bank asserted.

Chinese demand makes up for 35% of total growth in the oil markets at the present time.

Aren’t you all pleased to see the sanctions lifted from Iran? Business is bristling in the ancient Persian state. They’re expecting GDP to grow by 8%. The Obama administration, aside from giving them our drone technology, has made it possible for them to purchase state of the art equipment and trade with the west for all sorts of goodies.

The good folks in Iran just announced a great success in its latest long range missile, this one capable and designed to hit Israel.

“The reason we designed our missiles with a range of 2,000 km is to be able to hit our enemy the Zionist regime from a safe distance,” Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh was quoted as saying by the ISNA agency. The nearest point in Iran is around 1,000 km from Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Iranian agencies said the missiles tested on Wednesday were stamped with the words “Israel should be wiped from the pages of history” in Hebrew, though the inscription could not be seen on any photographs.

Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon told Israel Radio the tests showed Iran’s hostility had not changed since implementing a nuclear deal with world powers in January, despite President Hassan Rouhani’s overtures to the West.

“To my regret there are some in the West who are misled by the honeyed words of part of the Iranian leadership while the other part continues to procure equipment and weaponry, to arm terrorist groups,” Yaalon said.

How wonderful. We ought to sell them missile defense systems too.

Usually gold rallies during times of inflation or the expectation of it. However, in the early going of 2016, gold is acting as a safe haven against the tumult that has burdened the market.

“Gold does well when central bankers appear to be losing control, and in the present environment that means signs that deflation is getting a grip,” said Matthew Turner, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. “Any signs of inflation will be broadly welcomed as a sign economies are on the right track.”

The median return for gold stocks, year to date, is +42%.

European markets are celebrating the Bernie Sanders win in Michigan today, with the business heavy German markets leading the way higher.

Our NASDAQS are indicating a proclivity for risk lives within the hearts and minds of the canaille. The third estate is ready and willing to risk all, just for a few extra dollars through stock market adventure.

Crude oil mocks Dennis Gartman on a daily basis. I am almost certain some Saudi oil sheikh is doing it on purpose.

For the moment, bonds are off, as well as gold. This is a celebration of Bernard Sanders. Try to enjoy it.

This was single handedly the best victory speech ever given in the history of politics. Trump, with the most Presidential flair since the days of Lincoln, laid waste to all of his naysayers, leveling the specious arguments of all, especially Catchers Mitt Romney.

There were so many great things about this work of moveable art, I cannot name them all. Here were some of my favorite parts.

Trump brought out the Trump steaks, water, vodka and wine, all companies that were declared dead by Romney. Trump, in very Presidential and C-level exec fashion, DESTROYED THE FABRIC OF BEING THAT IS MITT ROMNEY.

Fuck you, Mexico; you’re paying for the wall.

Look at all of my products. I own them all, without debt. They are worth many, many millions of dollars–including Trump University.

I WILL SLAY THE DRAGON BEAST HILLARY CLINTON IN SINGLE COMBAT.

Come on. No one does it better.

All expensive polling data had the bitch winning by leaps and bounds in the bankrupt state of Michigan.

Lo and behold, with 30% in, B. Sanders has the lead.

Im sure the DNC is freaking out now, throwing gallons of milk around the office, having a regular fit about the whole ordeal.

Rubio almost landed zero percent of the votes in Mississippi, yet believes he should be the one to contest Trump at the convention.

I wouldn’t buy a Cuban cigar from Rubio. The guy is a 5 time loser and Cruz talks to shadows, fucking nuts.

Trump triumphs in the oily state, in magnanimous fashion, with pomp and certitude.

It appears M. Rubio’s great fortune from the island of Puerto Rico did not spill into the completely worthless state of Michigan.

With about 1% of polls in, Crazy Kasich and Trump are tied for the lead, while Marco plays the fat guy at the end of the bar in single digits.

To quote a great man: “A loser is a loser and you’re going out. Good father? Fuck you; go home and play with your kids.”