Cramer touched upon what I’ve been predicting will happen, now that energy stocks have rallied: they’re gonna start issuing superfluous amounts of stock in dilutive share offerings in order to save themselves from bankruptcy.
Cramer likens this action to the financial crisis of 2008, when all of the banks diluted with massive offerings in order to raise capital.
“Just like the banks did massive equity offerings in the bad old days of the Great Recession, they too got saved. This is the same thing.”
-Jim Cramer
For instance, Marathon Oil was once one of the top players in the oil patch. In 2015, it lost a striking $3.26 per share, and investors turned the stock into a pariah over concerns with its debt. Oil roared up to $33 at the end of February, which brought Marathon back to $8.23
But on Feb. 29, 2016, the company announced an equity offering of 135 million shares at a substantial discount to its last sale. The discount was so big that institutions flocked to it, and the company was able to sell an extra 10 million shares.
The stock has not looked back since.
“That is phenomenal,” Cramer said.
“The former is why the stocks can pop so much — consider it an instant steroid that makes them better. The latter is why the banks can rally as they have,” Cramer said.
With the success of oil companies issuing equity and so many buyers making money from the deals, Cramer suspects it could happen to pretty much any player in the oil patch. He compared the success of these secondary offerings to an IPO.
He could even see a company like Chesapeake, which owes billions in debt, could pull a Marathon and raise money to cover its debt that could come due in the next few years.
These extraordinary moves are not just limited to oil. Cramer has seen big moves happening in other commodities such as iron ore, which rallied 19 percent in one session following the Chinese government’s announcement of aggressive goals for growth over the weekend.
“I bet Freeport could easily sell 100 million shares and eliminate any near-term liquidity concerns, which would, again, allow the stock to climb ever higher. The virtuous circle at work,” Cramer said.
Cramer does have concerns with the recent run in commodities, though. It is based on commodity prices rising, and he does not think that is going to happen.
However, considering the way these companies have managed to stay afloat with the secondaries, it could mean that the worst is over for commodity stocks that have moved above the $2 to $3 range.
“Just like the banks did massive equity offerings in the bad old days of the Great Recession, they, too, got saved. This is the same thing,” Cramer said.
The only problem with comparing the real fundamental impediments of the oil patch to the crisis of confidence which caused banks to raise capital in 2008, is that the former cannot paper over losses and then get back to business as usual. For the most part, after banks raised capital in 2008-2009, and the panic has passed, it was business as usual for them.
The fucking oil companies are beholden to a commodity that is going to give them fits for years. While CHK might take this opportunity to raise capital via secondary to pay down some debt, the quarterly losses will still mount, henceforth, and the stock will still languish because there won’t be any meaningful growth or free cash flow present to buttress the stocks.
This is an apples to oranges comparison. However, should the major debt traps successfully raise much needed capital, regardless of whether their businesses have improved or not, I suspect the shares will eventually rally– celebrating survival over assured destruction.
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