Turkey, Saudia Arabia, and Other Cowards, Would Like Our Help to Invade Syria

This is fuckery on the largest scale possible. First Turkey shoots down a Russian jet, who wasn’t doing anything but killing scores of their friends in ISIS and removing their oil money from the scene of battle. Since then, they’ve been upping the rhetoric with Moscow, firing their stupid artillery into Kurdish controlled areas of Syria, permitting safe passage of supplies and manpower to ISIS in Syria, allegedly buying oil from ISIS, and now they’re asking us to assist in a full scale invasion.

Why?

Not to harass or kill their head cutting friends in ISIS, but to annihilate the Kurds, who, as far as I can tell, have done nothing to deserve our ire.

The advances have increased the risk of a military confrontation between Russia and Turkey. Turkish artillery returned fire into Syria for a fourth straight day on Tuesday, targeting the Kurdish YPG militia which Ankara says is being backed by Moscow.

“Some countries like us, Saudi Arabia and some other Western European countries have said that a ground operation is necessary,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Reuters in an interview.

However, this kind of action could not be left to regional powers alone. “To expect this only from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar is neither right nor realistic. If such an operation is to take place, it has to be carried out jointly, like the (coalition) air strikes,” he said.

So what are those evil Kurds up to?

Kurdish forces continued their push eastwards toward Islamic State-held territory northeast of Aleppo.

This all seems very wrong to me. As for Putin, his patience seems to be waning with the Turks.

“Our relations (with Turkey) are in a deep crisis. Russia regrets this. We are not the initiators of this.”

Who’s ready to send their son’s to Syria to fight for the Turks?

This will get very little airplay, until it blows up in spectacular fashion–sinking the entirety of Asia. But, for now, no one will discuss it because it’s boring, somewhat unbelievable, and deemed ‘far fetched’ by people who cannot fathom such malevolent actions by so many people.

“Chinese banks haven’t provisioned for receivables and those are essentially riskier loans,” said Xuanlai He, credit analyst at Commerzbank in Singapore. “The eventual losses will have significant impact on China’s economy because you could have contagion risk in banking sector.”

“The receivables portfolio in Chinese banks is opaque so we can’t make an assumption on the asset quality,” said Christine Kuo, analyst at Moody’s in Hong Kong. “Provisions for receivables are indeed very low compared to that for loans. We tend to think that the Chinese government is likely to provide support if there is any sign of a crisis.”

China CITIC Bank Corp.’s assets under receivables tripled to 900 billion yuan by June 30, from 300 billion yuan at the end of 2013, according to the bank’s financial statements.

Concerns about Chinese banks’ creditworthiness are mounting with the cost of insuring Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.’s debt against default reaching an all-time high of 199.5 basis points on Jan. 21. The bank’s 6 percent perpetual notes that count as Additional Tier 1 capital fell to a record low of 99.5 cents last Thursday. The yield spread on China CITIC’s $300 million 6 percent 2024 notes surged to a one-year high of 337 basis points over U.S. Treasuries Monday.

Outstanding repurchase agreements in China’s interbank market, used by debt investors to amplify their buying power, soared to 9.73 trillion yuan in December, the highest level since at least 2012, before edging down to 8.1 trillion yuan in January, according to data from ChinaMoney.

Risks are large in the receivables items, said Matthew Phan, credit analyst at CreditSights Inc. in Singapore. “The provision requirement is less strict for such assets, which are typically loans to the property and overcapacity sectors.”

In the latest official data released Monday, the industry’s bad-loan ratio climbed to 1.67 percent from 1.25 percent. New yuan loans in January jumped to a record high of 2.51 trillion yuan as banks front loaded their 2016 lending targets.

“Corporate leverage is rising and around 70 percent of bank loans in China go to corporations,” Moody’s Kuo said. “Until we see corporate leverage and profitability stabilize, we will likely see bank assets continue to deteriorate.”

Official data show nonperforming loans at Chinese commercial banks jumped 51 percent last year to a decade-high of 1.27 trillion yuan amid a stock market rout and the worst economic growth in a quarter century. While Moody’s Investors Service doesn’t expect a banking crisis in China in the next 12 to 18 months, it said in a Jan. 26 note that it does see higher loan delinquencies, more defaults on corporate debt and some losses in wealth-management products.

The NIKKEI 225 is off by 2.3% and the Shanghai is down just 0.16% for the session, thus far.

It appears recent tumult has forced the retarded Federal Reserve to see the light. The pervasive operators on Wall Street have implemented a very keen and effective propaganda campaign, in order to coerce the Fed to shut the fuck up about rate hikes.

Apparently, it’s working.

Fed’s Rosengren said:

“Recent global events may make it less likely that the 2 percent inflation target will be achieved as quickly as had been projected in recent forecasts by private economists or by Federal Reserve policy makers,” Rosengren said in the text of a speech he is scheduled to deliver Tuesday in Waterville, Maine. “If inflation is slower to return to target, monetary policy normalization should be unhurried.”

“We cannot take for granted that regular, persistent, but seemingly temporary shocks to inflation will not have a larger and more lasting impact,” Rosengren said in a speech made today at Colby college.

Dow futures are little changed, up 14.

Icahn hasn’t made a good trade since his son forced him to buy NFLX at $60. On the other hand, Einhorn has been outperforming in 2016, posting a positive gain of 1.4% for the first month of the year, despite the wheels falling off the market.

Apparently, both men decided against holding Tim “I am so gay and single” Cook’s Apple into 2016.

Icahn sold 7 million Apple shares in the fourth quarter, leaving him with 45.8 million shares worth $4.8 billion. Greenlight Capital cut its stake by 44 percent to 6.3 million shares worth $661.5 million as of Dec. 31, according to a regulatory filing Tuesday. Vanguard Group Inc. and Northern Trust Corp. were also among the institutional investors that reduced Apple holdings in their portfolios.

Shares of AAPL are down 7.71% for 2016.

There is panic in the air for the JP Morgan global strategist based on Hong Kong. Marcella Chow is warning that oil is going to careen lower to $22. She’s panicked, worried, and everything in between. Her advice is simple: listen to Le Fly and board the ark, get long U.S. treasuries before it’s too late. The floods are coming and no one is safe.

The global strategist for the $1.7 trillion money manager says she’s on edge, her clients are panicky and she’s telling them to stash as much as 70 percent of holdings in bonds including U.S. Treasuries. Calm won’t return until China’s economy improves and central banks regain credibility with investors, she said. She’s waiting for oil to fall to as low as $22 a barrel, and in the meantime she’s battening down and trying to avoid volatility.

“Am I worried? Yes,” Chow said in a Feb. 15 phone interview from Hong Kong. “There’s so much uncertainty,” she said. “Equities might not be a wise choice.”

In September, she started telling investors to shift to a 70 percent weighting for debt from an equal mix of stocks and bonds. Since the beginning of October, the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index has gained 2 percent, while a measure of global equities has lost 4.3 percent.

“Even though it’s tempting to hold cash given how crazy markets have been, it’s better to go for stable bonds,” Chow said. “At least you can generate a few percentage points in returns.”

“China’s growth stabilization story is still unclear,” said Chow, who sees e-commerce business as one bright spot in Asia’s biggest economy. “We have to wait and see what happens.”

“How much more down is there to go? I want to know too,” Chow said. “I’m not feeling very adventurous.”

It’s time to batten down the hatches; a great storm is coming, apparently.

Amongst other things, D. Gartman called the good members of OPEC liars, cheats and thieves. In plain terms, Mr. Gartman, who has nailed the recent moves in both oil and gold, believes the production cuts are a joke. Crude is to trade lower, especially in Ruble terms, and the organization called OPEC is to be laughed at from afar.

I won’t say he is cursed, only because he’s somehow managed to etch out a multi-billion dollar net worth and retains the trust of his investors, despite making one very public bonehead move after the next.

As fate would have it, John Paulson has held is gold position for an eternity; but decided to pare it down by 37%, just prior to its upside explosion.

He reduced his GLD position from 9.23 million shares to a mere paltry piker sum of 5.8 million.

It’s like the stock Gods waited for the precise moment when he sold to jack it up.

Changes in the portfolios of some of our favorite hedge fund managers was released over the weekend. I’ve managed to compile and organize it, for entertainment purposes only. Remember, most of these funds are being managed by men high off cocaine. If markets continue lower, they’ll just close up shop and live off the 1 or 2 billion they’ve managed to accumulate over the years.

SUNE

Visium bought 1.3 million shares.
Sand Grove Capital Management bought 272,000 shares
Adage Capital Partners bought 9.2 million shares

AIG

Omega Advisors increased its stake by 731,200 shares to 4.1 million shares

BAX

Starboard Value nearly doubled its holdings to 2.4 million shares
Visium Asset Management bought roughly 1 million shares
Jana Partners sold half its stake to 5.7 million

GE

John Burbank’s Passport Capital bought 4.9 million shares

HLF

Huber Capital sold 96,800 shares to own 1.2 million shares

HTZ

Jana Partners sold out of 39.2 million shares

JCP

Omega Advisors sold its entire stake of 500,000 shares

MS

Third Point bought 3 million shares
Carlson Capital bought 2.2 million shares
Adage Capital added to its position, buying 1.6 million shares to own 4.5 million shares

MDLZ

Passport Capital bought 1.2 million shares

Zweig-Dimenna Associates bought 187,900 additional shares to own 394,650 shares
Adage Capital Partners sold half its position to 2.7 million shares

PFE

Jana Partners bought 9.2 million shares
Suvretta Capital added 1.9 million shares to own 2.5 million
Omega Advisors cut its stake by 3.5 mln shares to 1.3 million shares

PXD

Baupost Group sold out of 4.1 million shares
Senator Investment Group sold out of 500,000 shares

VRX

Suvretta sold out of 354,750 shares
Visium Asset Management sold its position of 1 million shares
Jana Partners started a new position, buying 1.56 million shares
Brahman Capital nearly doubled its position, buying 4.1 million shares to own 8.1 million
Omega Advisors sold its entire 484,915-share stake
Pershing Square trims stake in VRX to 16.59 mln shares from 19.47 mln shares

WRK
Starboard cut its stake by 26 percent to 4.5 million shares

WMB

Jana Partners took a new position of 3.8 million shares

YHOO
Jet Capital added a new position, buying 2.1 million shares
Carlson Capital bought 2.9 million shares

YUM
Serengeti bought 135,000 shares

ZTS
Jana Partners sold out of 3.9 million shares

Big day for markets, with stocks closing at session highs. Bears were dispatched and hideously disfigured after this morning’s head fake.

Markets feigned weakness, then exploded to the upside and never looked back.

All of the risk assets were higher and bonds were lower: a good day.

I stepped into today fully invested, 75% SPY, 25% TLT. Although my combination didn’t yield FCX type returns, I now find myself without loss for the year, flat at a time and place when destruction is festooned all around me.

Going forward, I expect greater rallies. For now, barring a resumption of negative newsflow, markets should proceed higher through April.

You doubt this prediction, because you’re part of the mortar that has built a wall of worry. Bull runs are fueled by such things.

Don’t be stuck in it. Climb it.

The market has taken a turn for the better, over the past 30 mins or so. I will not pretend to know the ultimate outcome of today’s carnivale show. However, I’d like to point towards a few things.

Breadth is strong.

Most importantly, risk assets are climbing, appreciably.

How can I quantify this assertion? Two ways.

In Exodus, my bubble basket is higher by 2.54%. More specifically, my TWDFM (these will definetely fuck me) basket is vastly outperforming the old and the stodgy FANG plays. I will continue to stress this point, as long as the markets remain in peril.

Here, have a look at the extreme outperformance.

Without question, there is a bullish narrative being inserted into the newsflow. I’ve been curating it for readers of the site, without bias. This newsflow can and will increase as risk assets rise.

This is how sentiment shifts. Humans are very malleable creatures, savage and without decorum.