THE CASE FOR HIGHER CRUDE, Plus a Few Other Matters

Biotech and big Pharma are enjoying themselves today. Energy related shares have recovered and pressing higher–because no oil freeze is good news. Why? Well, let me explain.

Now that the middled east are free to ‘Mars Attack’ one another with sneaky backdoor deals, the price of oil will soon collapse under its own hubris. But wait, there’s more. Because of the specter of this eventuality, traders are bidding up oil because after it collapses, oil producers will be forced to cut production and prices will then lift. In other words, traders are merely trying to get ahead of the curve, by bidding up oil before it collapses, before it rebounds.

This is fuckery on an industrial scale.

DAX viagras into the bell. Dr. Copper is the truth, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Healthcare

Nazis

SPY

Crude

Dr. Copper

Any questions?

For about 30 seconds, the market threatened to trade down 50 points. WTI crude was off a harrowing 5% and oil stocks were lower by 3%. All of that shit has ended now. The panic of 25 minutes ago has ended and with it enters a new era of unchecked hedonism and prosperity, or whichever suits you best–determinant on your socio-economic backgrounds.

As you read this, the Dow is moving briskly into the green, dragging along the ever stubborn Spy and NASDAQIRI. It’s worth mentioning, there are a few Debby Downers who are diluting the mood. But, no worries, the stock Gods, designated by Zeus himself, will see to it that all stocks and investors be treated fairly and justly.

“Money for all” is the motto. Don’t just sit there and watch everyone become billionaires. Get out there and take what’s rightfully yours!

This is hardly what I’d call reason to worry. Futures are mildly lower, off by 9. WTI is merely giving back some of its recent gains, off by 4.5%. And, European markets are off a trifle, -0.3%.

My XLE is down where I expected it to be.  Some of the smaller capped oils are enduring some truly harrowing declines this morning. Other than that, I’d consider this open to be genteel.

Vista equity partners are buying up piece of shit software company, Cvent, for a 69% premium.

“This milestone is the next chapter in our 17-year history,” Reggie Aggarwal, founder and chief executive officer of Cvent, said in the statement. “With Vista’s financial strength to invest in Cvent now and in the future, we will be better positioned to deliver innovative solutions that transform the meetings and events industry, and to offer employees new opportunities for career growth.”

Great job CVT management for ripping off those private equity asshats. Well played!

The fuck out of here with these numbers. If you’re one of the morons buying MS in the pre-market due to their ‘earnings beat’, I hope that you soon find yourself tied to a gibbet, set to receive 1,000 lashes about the back and neck.

“The Fly” does not mess around when it comes to doling out punishment to those who heartily deserve it.

Year over year, the clowns at MS saw revenues stagger and then plunge, down 21% to $7.79 bill. Net income clown car crashed into a brick wall, off by 53% to $1.13 billion, or 55 cents per share.

The answer to these horrible times? Fire a bunch of fixed income guys of course. Morgan, like so many other investment banks, just want to get rid of those pesky traders, so that they can focus on wealth advisory. You know, offer some asshole 300% of his trailing 12, so that he can bring his asshole team over and manage his clients assets through ETF allocations, by which he’ll charge them 1% per annum for saying hi to them every 6 months.

“The first quarter was characterized by challenging market conditions and muted client activity,” Gorman said in the statement. “While we see some signs of market recovery, global uncertainties continue to weigh on investor activity.”

Wait until the market really drops and these banks are trying to dig themselves out of the quicksand filled with a bunch of incompetent advisors who are losing client assets hand over fist.

America, you are not permitted to protect your businesses or shift the balance of trade in your favor. The World Trade Organization deems it to be illegal. Moreover, according to China’s Finance Minister, you do not deserve to be a world power should you follow Trump’s irrational policies.

Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei criticized Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, calling him “an irrational type” due to his proposal that tariffs on imported Chinese goods be increased to up to 45 percent.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Sunday, Lou said, “Trump is an irrational type. If he were to do this, that would be in violation of the rules set by the World Trade Organization.”

Lou said that if the United States put Trump’s proposal into effect, it “would not be entitled to its position as the world’s major power. The U.S. needs to recognize that the U.S. and China are mutually dependent on each other. Our economic cycles are intertwined.”

Intertwined. Is this what he calls ‘intertwined?’

The Japanese yield curve continues to flatten. Long duration yields are now at record lows. Their currency is up 10% since rates were taken into negative territory. And, finally, yields up to 13 year duration are now negative.

The Bank of Japan made a woeful mistake, thinking negative yields would spur inflation. The exact opposite has occurred. They thrusted negative rates onto an aging, saver, populous. The response has been records sales for home vaults and safes. People are embracing the deflationary vortex and the Japanese government do not know what to do.

The flight to safety intensified as crude tumbled after oil-producing nations failed to reach an accord to freeze supplies. The yen rose towards a 17-month high against the dollar after members of the Group of 20 nations signaled opposition last week to any efforts from Japan to directly halt the yen’s 11 percent climb this year.

“The yen’s appreciation in the wake of the G-20 meeting is putting the BOJ in a position where it has to do something,” said Genji Tsukatani, Tokyo-based fund manager at JPMorgan Asset Management Inc. “The JGB yield curve is flattening on views inflationary pressure is waning further, strengthening demand for super-long bonds. Investors are losing places to park money so they have to buy even as yields fall.”

Interesting times.

The price of brent is off by 4% tonight, up from the lows of -6%. In case you’re wondering what to expect for tomorrow’s trade in the oil patch, I took the liberties to scour the prices of energy shares traded in Asia.

This is what I’ve found.

Australia

Beach Energy -6.5%

Santos -6.1%

Origin Energy -5.1%

Hong Kong

CNOOC -4.5%

Petrochina -2.4%

China Petro -2.4%

Japan

Inpex -5%

JX Holdings -2.2%

DAX futs are off by 0.5%.

Based off these numbers, I’m guessing XLE open up at $61.5, down by 3%.

The Sunday Times is reporting the executives from Astrazeneca are holding ‘secret’ talks to acquire MDVN, who just rebuffed an ‘inadequate’ bid from Sanofi. I never quite understood how these rumors get leaked. Perhaps one of the idiot secretaries, or receptionist, at AZN sold the info for 10 bucks to the Sunday Times, effectively costing her company millions in potential expenditures for making an elevated bid for MDVN?

Either way, this so called bid has not been proposed to the lads at Medivation just yet.

In March, MDVN hired JP Morgan to explore ‘strategic alternatives.’

The dollar is losing pace v the yen, off by 0.5%. But that’s more of a side effect of risk off than crude related.The Australian dollar and

The Australian dollar is off by  1.05% v the dollar.

The Canadian dollar is getting poleaxed v the dollar, off by 1.3%.

Finally, the dollar is up 2.1% v the Russian ruble.

It’s worth noting, the dollar is unch v the Saudi Riyal.