Fuckery Largess: Apache Shoots Down Oil and Gas People Dot Morons Buyout ‘News’

This is the sort of stuff that really draws my ire. Some fuckhead jobs site with a blog section posted an article that very confidently stated OXY was to purchase APA for a mere $25 bill, peanut shells.

My bullshit meter went fucking apeshit when I read it. But it was too early in the morning to lay into them. But after a few cups of coffee and some carbs, I think I’m ready to opine.

You fucking assholes.

37 | APA | (56.34 +1.22)
Apache shares see heavy pullback from pre-market highs; Hearing the company has issued a statement saying today’s town hall meeting referenced in the M&A article earlier refers to layoffs, not any potential M&A activity

The company held a townhall meeting to announce layoffs, not a fucking merger. I hope you enjoy chatting with the vultures over at the SEC.

The sages at Goldman published a strongly worded research note today, warning clients that the market is sheepishly awaiting to be executed by a psychotic Fed, who seem to be hell bent on higher rates. Moreover, they believe valuations are at peak levels and the risk-reward ratio doesn’t warrant outsized equity exposure, until economic growth suggests otherwise.

In short, gents, they see a storm coming. Time to board up the windows and stock up on dry goods and live out the rest of your days in the cellar.

“Until we see sustained signals of growth recovery, we do not feel comfortable taking equity risk, particularly as valuations are near peak levels,” the Goldman analysts wrote in their research published on May 17. “Our equity strategists have become more defensive, owing to heightened drawdown risk and growth scarcity.”

The firm remains overweight cash mainly due to the market ‘only’ expecting zero or one additional interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve through the rest of 2016.

“We believe the market’s dovish pricing of the Fed increases rate shock risk, in which case both equity and bonds could sell off. We are also not convinced the emerging market rally is sustainable,” the analysts said, echoing some of the recent sentiment expressed by Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist

Their model allocation.

Reg FD anyone?

Nestled away in the bowels of an obscure oil and gas jobs site is the ho hum news of a fucking $25 billion mega merger, between Occidental Petroleum and Apache.

Oil and Gas People Exclusive: Occidental Petroleum are about to announce they are taking over Apache Corporation in a deal thought to be worth at least $25 Billion. Apache Corporation have called a town hall meeting today where they are expected to announce the takeover to their staff.

It’s too early for this shit.

Shares of APA are surging.

I guess they didn’t have the testicular fortitude to compete and simply ceded share to others.

The Target miss, although delightful and meaningful, is just another notch in Jeff Bezos belt of disasters being afflicted unto others by Amazon. Jeff and his wacky eyes probably bulge with glee after reading these horrid earnings reports.

Nevertheless, earnings power is still strong at Target, but comps and guidance are coming down…a lot.

As such, shares are being harrowed in the pre-market, as the stock plunges towards annual lows.

Via Briefing

Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $1.29 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.19; revenues fell 5.4% year/year to $16.2 bln vs the $16.31 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

Comps +1.2% vs. +1.5-2.5% guidance (estimates near +1.6%); more than offset by the impact of the sale of the pharmacy and clinic businesses.

Comparable digital channel sales grew 23% and contributed 0.6 % points to comparable sales growth.
EBIT +4.9% to $1.32 bln.

EBITDA and EBIT margin rates were 11.5% and 8.2%, respectively, compared with 10.5% and 7.4%, respectively, in 2015.
First quarter gross margin rate was 30.9%, compared with 30.4% in 2015, reflecting the benefit of the sale of the Company’s pharmacy and clinic businesses, combined with the benefit of the Company’s cost savings initiatives, partially offset by investments in promotions.

Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $1.00-1.20, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.36 Capital IQ Consensus; comps flat to down 2% vs. ests near +1.9%.

Co sees FY17 EPS within $5.20-5.40 prior range achievable, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $5.27 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Forget about gold, silver and oil. Those are idiot commodities. The true industrial commodity, one that has accurately predicted both rallies and drops, is copper.

Plain and simple, the recent price action has been raising eyebrows around many dinner tables in recent weeks, sometimes more than eyebrow at a time, if you could believe that.

I’m sure it means nothing at all. Maybe China found a way to grow without copper.

Since the recovery and ZIRP, investors have piled into consumer goods stocks, due to predictable earnings trends, global outreach, and because they paid dividends.

Inside of my laboratory (Exodus), I’ve affixed tons of visuals to accompany the hard data. Humans are a visual species.

Let’s revive three core industries of the consumer goods sector: personal products, cleaning products and processed and packaged goods.

Best represented by PG, CL and KMB

Best represented by PEP, MDLZ and GIS

Best represented by CLX, CHD and ECL

The consumer goods industry is trading at a 50% premium to the median PE of the overall market. Ten years ago, it was trading at just a 11% premium.

The processed & packaged goods industry is trading at a 40% premium to the median PE of the overall market. Ten years ago, it was trading at just a 3% premium.

The personal products industry is trading at a 16% premium to the median PE of the overall market. Ten years ago, it was trading at just a 8% premium.

We run data for over 200 industries, and in my experience, have been able to foretell plenty of corrections. For example, during live demos we ran last year with customers, the biotech industry was something that was highlighted as being historically expensive. One year, whereunto, the industry has been racked with losses in excess of 30%.

Cramer did an excellent job this evening in describing the inexorable rock you now find yourselves in, long stocks into the teeth of a grindhouse. Make no mistake about it, the path towards prosperity, the ephemeral pursuit of happiness that is always out of reach, is lined with groundworks designed to waste you, leave you at the side of the road, killed.

The Federal Reserve is dead serious about hiking rates. At first, I didn’t believe they would. But the incessant rhetoric cannot all be for show. They’re manipulative scoundrels, not children. Ergo, the only logical conclusion that I can make is they’re interested in causing economic turmoil.

Higher rates will stress oil companies trying to access lines of credit. It will cause issues on both the local and national level. With the world entering a negative interest rate era, it makes no sense for America to diverge by such a degree that we’re seriously talking about hiking rates up to and above 3% by 2018.

If America is the sole bastion of economic prosperity in the world, why on earth would you want to risk upsetting that apple card?

Cramer thinks you need to pray that Yellen isn’t on a war path towards ruin.

Markets gave back yesterday’s gains, as the chop continues. The Dow is down about 600 points over the past month and the ‘sell in May’ thesis seems to be playing out exactly according to schedule. Even still, there will come a point in time when the market will swing higher, providing succor to those of you caught at the high end of the recent range.

Unfortunately, according to the laws of mathematics, that time is not now.

I’ve been in a 75% cash position, 25% TLT for about a month, ever since covering my XLE short. Truth be told, I never should’ve deviated away from my Exodus inspired program buying of SPY upon systemwide oversold signals. Nevertheless, we can only move forward and must not lament over the past.

When Exodus flags oversold, I will be going long SPY in 25% clips. The track record is indelibly profound.

The Fed minutes will be released tomorrow. In light of Fed’s Kaplan, Williams and Lockhart’s absurd comments today, suggesting 7 fresh rate hikes are just around the bend, you should fear those minutes.

As you were.

I do not think this has anything to do with the pseudo inflation scares that seem to be causing people to buy raw commodities. Today’s rout in food related stocks, at a time when the market is off by 200, is concerning. If the market was up, I’d say this was rotation out of safe stocks into risk. But, this isn’t that. This is distribution, investors locking in profits in some of the safest winners over the past year, heading into cash.

Let’s review.

TSN -3%
HRL -3.7%
SAFM -5%
CORE -4.3%
SPTN -5%
CALM -3.5%
DF -3%
CVGW -4%
MDLZ -3.3%
GIS -2.7%
K -2.5%
CPB -3.25%
CAG -2.7%
SJM -2.6%
THS -3.4%
FARM -7%

If you have a better explanation, I am all ears. With gold and treasuries higher, stocks down, one could only surmise that the big money that has been hiding in these consumer staples is starting to unwind that trade. Inside Exodus, I have what’s called an ‘Old Man Index’ which is, essentially, a portfolio of safe haven stocks. It is, by far, the worst performing index, amongst several that I operate, inside of the platform.

What’s amazing about this, is the events that have led up to it. Just yesterday, I posited the idea that we’re firing warning shots across The House of Saud’s bow.

Not only is the Senate passing a bill to permit the families of 9/11 to sue the Saudi government or any government that sponsors terrorism, it’s being done in spite of Obama’s threat to veto it.

Long term waterboy, Chuck Schumer, defied his grace and said an Obama veto would not hold up. What!?

“This bill is very near and dear to my heart as a New Yorker because it would allow the victims of 9/11 to pursue some small measure of justice,” Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said. “[This is] another example of the [John] Cornyn-Schumer collaboration, which works pretty well around here.”
President Obama has threatened to veto the bill. Schumer said he wouldn’t uphold a veto, and expects that most senators wouldn’t, either.

“I think we easily get the two-thirds override if the president should veto,” Schumer said.

The House of Saud isn’t happy about this and have threatened to punish America, monetarily.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, pushed back against the reports in Geneva earlier this month while warning that the legislation could impact Saudi investments, according to Reuters.

Schumer going in for another round (extra gangster).

“Look, if the Saudis did not participate in this terrorism, they have nothing to fear about going to court,” Schumer said. “If they did, they should be held accountable.”

My sixth sense says something is afoot and the U.S. isn’t too happy about Saudi Arabia ravaging the price of oil, in order to capture market share from U.S. producers. The oil lobby is strong.